Archive

A history of our predictions. A model is only worth what its predictions are, so all of ours are made public after games end.

Were the model's chances right?

Every game is sorted by the chance that the Field Theory model gave each team to win. Each bar shows the amount of teams in that prediction range that actually won. When the model's chances are honest, the bar boundary ends up inside the shaded band.

How often the model's favorites won, by the chance it gave them
Model's chance for the favorite	Favorites won	Underdogs won
90% to 100% (underdog 0% to 10%)	96%	4%
80% to 90% (underdog 10% to 20%)	82%	18%
70% to 80% (underdog 20% to 30%)	76%	24%
60% to 70% (underdog 30% to 40%)	63%	37%
50% to 60% (underdog 40% to 50%)	50%	50%

76%Winners picked1148 of 1508 games, not including toss-ups

12.7Average missPoints between projected and final margin among FBS matchups

1522GamesFinal with a pregame prediction, all seasons

Click here to see Field Theory's advanced statistics.

Week 9

43 of 53 winners picked (81%) · average miss 11.7 pts

Tue, Oct 21Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Kennesaw State	+180	36%	45
Florida International	−180	64%	26

Spread: Florida International −6.5
Projected margin: Florida International by 6.3

Off by25.3

Tue, Oct 21Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Western Kentucky	+127	44%	28
Louisiana Tech	−127	56%	27

Spread: Louisiana Tech −2.5
Projected margin: Louisiana Tech by 2.6

Off by3.6

Wed, Oct 22Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Middle Tennessee	+521	16%	28
Delaware	−521	84%	31

Spread: Delaware −17
Projected margin: Delaware by 16.9

Off by13.9

Wed, Oct 22Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Missouri State	−135	58%	24
New Mexico State	+135	42%	17

Spread: Missouri State −3
Projected margin: Missouri State by 3.2

Off by3.8

Thu, Oct 23Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
South Alabama	−248	71%	38
Georgia State	+248	29%	31

Spread: South Alabama −9.5
Projected margin: South Alabama by 9.6

Off by2.6

Fri, Oct 24Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
North Texas	−1196	92%	54
Charlotte	+1196	8%	20

Spread: North Texas −24.5
Projected margin: North Texas by 24.4

Off by9.6

Fri, Oct 24Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
California	+173	37%	34
Virginia Tech	−173	63%	42

Spread: Virginia Tech −6
Projected margin: Virginia Tech by 5.9

Off by2.1

Fri, Oct 24Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Boise State	−1174	92%	24
Nevada	+1174	8%	3

Spread: Boise State −24
Projected margin: Boise State by 24.2

Off by3.2

Sat, Oct 25Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Ole Miss	−144	59%	34
Oklahoma	+144	41%	26

Spread: Ole Miss −4
Projected margin: Ole Miss by 3.9

Off by4.1

Sat, Oct 25Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Northwestern	+321	24%	21
Nebraska	−321	76%	28

Spread: Nebraska −12
Projected margin: Nebraska by 12.2

Off by5.2

Sat, Oct 25Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Rutgers	−159	61%	27
Purdue	+159	39%	24

Spread: Rutgers −5
Projected margin: Rutgers by 5.0

Off by2.0

Sat, Oct 25Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
UCLA	+5962	2%	6
Indiana	−5962	98%	56

Spread: Indiana −36.5
Projected margin: Indiana by 36.5

Off by13.5

Sat, Oct 25Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
SMU	−270	73%	12
Wake Forest	+270	27%	13

Spread: SMU −10.5
Projected margin: SMU by 10.5

Off by11.5

Sat, Oct 25Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Syracuse	+288	26%	16
Georgia Tech	−288	74%	41

Spread: Georgia Tech −11
Projected margin: Georgia Tech by 11.1

Off by13.9

Sat, Oct 25Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Virginia	−295	75%	17
North Carolina	+295	25%	16

Spread: Virginia −11.5
Projected margin: Virginia by 11.4

Off by10.4

Sat, Oct 25Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Kansas State	−106	51%	42
Kansas	+106	49%	17

Spread: Kansas State −0.5
Projected margin: Kansas State by 0.6

Off by24.4

Sat, Oct 25Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
App State	+980	9%	21
Old Dominion	−980	91%	24

Spread: Old Dominion −22.5
Projected margin: Old Dominion by 22.7

Off by19.7

Sat, Oct 25Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
South Florida	+120	45%	31
Memphis	−120	55%	34

Spread: Memphis −2
Projected margin: Memphis by 2.0

Off by1.0

Sat, Oct 25Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Bowling Green	−572	85%	21
Kent State	+572	15%	24

Spread: Bowling Green −18
Projected margin: Bowling Green by 17.8

Off by20.8

Sat, Oct 25Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Ohio	−456	82%	28
Eastern Michigan	+456	18%	21

Spread: Ohio −15.5
Projected margin: Ohio by 15.7

Off by8.7

Sat, Oct 25Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Auburn	+104	49%	33
Arkansas	−104	51%	24

Spread: Arkansas −0.5
Projected margin: Arkansas by 0.4

Off by9.4

Sat, Oct 25Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Akron	+323	24%	24
Buffalo	−323	76%	16

Spread: Buffalo −12.5
Projected margin: Buffalo by 12.3

Off by20.3

Sat, Oct 25Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
UConn	−278	74%	34
Rice	+278	26%	37

Spread: UConn −11
Projected margin: UConn by 10.8

Off by13.8

Sat, Oct 25Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Utah State	+150	40%	14
New Mexico	−150	60%	33

Spread: New Mexico −4.5
Projected margin: New Mexico by 4.4

Off by14.6

Sat, Oct 25Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Alabama	−319	76%	29
South Carolina	+319	24%	22

Spread: Alabama −12
Projected margin: Alabama by 12.2

Off by5.2

Sat, Oct 25Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Missouri	+163	38%	10
Vanderbilt	−163	62%	17

Spread: Vanderbilt −5
Projected margin: Vanderbilt by 5.2

Off by1.8

Sat, Oct 25Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Illinois	+183	35%	25
Washington	−183	65%	42

Spread: Washington −6.5
Projected margin: Washington by 6.4

Off by10.6

Sat, Oct 25Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Minnesota	+483	17%	3
Iowa	−483	83%	41

Spread: Iowa −16
Projected margin: Iowa by 16.2

Off by21.8

Sat, Oct 25Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Toledo	+146	41%	7
Washington State	−146	59%	28

Spread: Washington State −4
Projected margin: Washington State by 4.1

Off by16.9

Sat, Oct 25Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
NC State	+198	34%	34
Pittsburgh	−198	66%	53

Spread: Pittsburgh −7.5
Projected margin: Pittsburgh by 7.3

Off by11.7

Sat, Oct 25Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
BYU	+104	49%	41
Iowa State	−104	51%	27

Spread: Iowa State −0.5
Projected margin: Iowa State by 0.4

Off by14.4

Sat, Oct 25Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
San Diego State	−154	61%	23
Fresno State	+154	39%	0

Spread: San Diego State −4.5
Projected margin: San Diego State by 4.6

Off by18.4

Sat, Oct 25Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
UL Monroe	+198	34%	21
Southern Miss	−198	66%	49

Spread: Southern Miss −7.5
Projected margin: Southern Miss by 7.3

Off by20.7

Sat, Oct 25Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Florida Atlantic	+681	13%	32
Navy	−681	87%	42

Spread: Navy −19.5
Projected margin: Navy by 19.4

Off by9.4

Sat, Oct 25Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Temple	−204	67%	38
Tulsa	+204	33%	37

Spread: Temple −7.5
Projected margin: Temple by 7.6

Off by6.6

Sat, Oct 25Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Ball State	+288	26%	7
Northern Illinois	−288	74%	21

Spread: Northern Illinois −11
Projected margin: Northern Illinois by 11.1

Off by2.9

Sat, Oct 25Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Massachusetts	+648	13%	13
Central Michigan	−648	87%	38

Spread: Central Michigan −19
Projected margin: Central Michigan by 19.0

Off by6.0

Sat, Oct 25Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Western Michigan	+120	46%	17
Miami (OH)	−120	54%	26

Spread: Miami (OH) −2
Projected margin: Miami (OH) by 1.9

Off by7.1

Sat, Oct 25Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Baylor	+113	47%	20
Cincinnati	−113	53%	41

Spread: Cincinnati −1.5
Projected margin: Cincinnati by 1.3

Off by19.7

Sat, Oct 25Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Oklahoma State	+2475	4%	0
Texas Tech	−2475	96%	42

Spread: Texas Tech −30
Projected margin: Texas Tech by 30.2

Off by11.8

Sat, Oct 25Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Texas	−438	81%	45
Mississippi State	+438	19%	38

Spread: Texas −15.5
Projected margin: Texas by 15.3

Off by8.3

Sat, Oct 25Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
TCU	−467	82%	23
West Virginia	+467	18%	17

Spread: TCU −16
Projected margin: TCU by 15.9

Off by9.9

Sat, Oct 25Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Wisconsin	+4520	2%	7
Oregon	−4520	98%	21

Spread: Oregon −34.5
Projected margin: Oregon by 34.6

Off by20.6

Sat, Oct 25Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Stanford	+4744	2%	7
Miami	−4744	98%	42

Spread: Miami −35
Projected margin: Miami by 34.9

Off by0.1

Sat, Oct 25Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Georgia Southern	−138	58%	24
Arkansas State	+138	42%	34

Spread: Georgia Southern −3.5
Projected margin: Georgia Southern by 3.5

Off by13.5

Sat, Oct 25Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Louisiana	+171	37%	23
Troy	−171	63%	35

Spread: Troy −5.5
Projected margin: Troy by 5.7

Off by6.3

Sat, Oct 25Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Texas A&M	−114	53%	49
LSU	+114	47%	25

Spread: Texas A&M −1.5
Projected margin: Texas A&M by 1.4

Off by22.6

Sat, Oct 25Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Michigan	−414	81%	31
Michigan State	+414	19%	20

Spread: Michigan −14.5
Projected margin: Michigan by 14.7

Off by3.7

Sat, Oct 25Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Boston College	+1145	8%	24
Louisville	−1145	92%	38

Spread: Louisville −24
Projected margin: Louisville by 24.0

Off by10.0

Sat, Oct 25Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Colorado State	+143	41%	0
Wyoming	−143	59%	28

Spread: Wyoming −4
Projected margin: Wyoming by 3.8

Off by24.2

Sat, Oct 25Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Tennessee	−251	71%	56
Kentucky	+251	29%	34

Spread: Tennessee −9.5
Projected margin: Tennessee by 9.7

Off by12.3

Sat, Oct 25Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Houston	+223	31%	24
Arizona State	−223	69%	16

Spread: Arizona State −8.5
Projected margin: Arizona State by 8.5

Off by16.5

Sat, Oct 25Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Colorado	+381	21%	7
Utah	−381	79%	53

Spread: Utah −14
Projected margin: Utah by 13.9

Off by32.1

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