Archive

A history of our predictions. A model is only worth what its predictions are, so all of ours are made public after games end.

Were the model's chances right?

Every game is sorted by the chance that the Field Theory model gave each team to win. Each bar shows the amount of teams in that prediction range that actually won. When the model's chances are honest, the bar boundary ends up inside the shaded band.

How often the model's favorites won, by the chance it gave them
Model's chance for the favorite	Favorites won	Underdogs won
90% to 100% (underdog 0% to 10%)	96%	4%
80% to 90% (underdog 10% to 20%)	82%	18%
70% to 80% (underdog 20% to 30%)	76%	24%
60% to 70% (underdog 30% to 40%)	63%	37%
50% to 60% (underdog 40% to 50%)	50%	50%

76%Winners picked1148 of 1508 games, not including toss-ups

12.7Average missPoints between projected and final margin among FBS matchups

1522GamesFinal with a pregame prediction, all seasons

Click here to see Field Theory's advanced statistics.

Week 1

81 of 96 winners picked (84%) · average miss 13.4 pts

Sat, Aug 23 · Neutral siteMissed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Iowa State	+122	45%	24
Kansas State	−122	55%	21

Spread: Kansas State −2
Projected margin: Kansas State by 2.1

Off by5.1

Sat, Aug 23Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Idaho State	+9828	1%	31
UNLV	−9828	99%	38

Spread: UNLV −39.5
Projected margin: UNLV by 39.7

Off by32.7

Sat, Aug 23Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Fresno State	+947	10%	7
Kansas	−947	90%	31

Spread: Kansas −22.5
Projected margin: Kansas by 22.4

Off by1.6

Sat, Aug 23Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Sam Houston	+134	43%	24
Western Kentucky	−134	57%	41

Spread: Western Kentucky −3
Projected margin: Western Kentucky by 3.1

Off by13.9

Sat, Aug 23Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Stanford	−221	69%	20
Hawai'i	+221	31%	23

Spread: Stanford −8.5
Projected margin: Stanford by 8.4

Off by11.4

Thu, Aug 28Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Boise State	−565	85%	7
South Florida	+565	15%	34

Spread: Boise State −17.5
Projected margin: Boise State by 17.7

Off by44.7

Thu, Aug 28Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Ohio	+282	26%	31
Rutgers	−282	74%	34

Spread: Rutgers −11
Projected margin: Rutgers by 10.9

Off by7.9

Thu, Aug 28Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Lafayette	+4008	2%	7
Bowling Green	−4008	98%	26

Spread: Bowling Green −33.5
Projected margin: Bowling Green by 33.7

Off by14.7

Thu, Aug 28Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
East Carolina	+239	29%	17
NC State	−239	71%	24

Spread: NC State −9
Projected margin: NC State by 9.2

Off by2.2

Thu, Aug 28Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Jacksonville State	+323	24%	10
UCF	−323	76%	17

Spread: UCF −12.5
Projected margin: UCF by 12.3

Off by5.3

Thu, Aug 28Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Delaware State	+5810	2%	17
Delaware	−5810	98%	35

Spread: Delaware −36.5
Projected margin: Delaware by 36.3

Off by18.3

Thu, Aug 28Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Saint Francis	+5463	2%	0
UL Monroe	−5463	98%	29

Spread: UL Monroe −36
Projected margin: UL Monroe by 35.9

Off by6.9

Thu, Aug 28Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Wyoming	−118	54%	10
Akron	+118	46%	0

Spread: Wyoming −2
Projected margin: Wyoming by 1.8

Off by8.2

Thu, Aug 28Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Central Arkansas	+8061	1%	6
Missouri	−8061	99%	61

Spread: Missouri −38.5
Projected margin: Missouri by 38.5

Off by16.5

Thu, Aug 28Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Elon	+3271	3%	17
Duke	−3271	97%	45

Spread: Duke −32
Projected margin: Duke by 32.2

Off by4.2

Thu, Aug 28Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
UT Martin	+709	12%	7
Oklahoma State	−709	88%	27

Spread: Oklahoma State −20
Projected margin: Oklahoma State by 19.8

Off by0.2

Thu, Aug 28Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Buffalo	+2168	4%	10
Minnesota	−2168	96%	23

Spread: Minnesota −29
Projected margin: Minnesota by 29.2

Off by16.2

Thu, Aug 28Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Stephen F. Austin	+1481	6%	0
Houston	−1481	94%	27

Spread: Houston −26
Projected margin: Houston by 26.1

Off by0.9

Thu, Aug 28Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Alabama State	+2033	5%	42
UAB	−2033	95%	52

Spread: UAB −28.5
Projected margin: UAB by 28.7

Off by18.7

Thu, Aug 28 · Neutral siteCorrect pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Nebraska	−125	56%	20
Cincinnati	+125	44%	17

Spread: Nebraska −2.5
Projected margin: Nebraska by 2.4

Off by0.6

Thu, Aug 28Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Miami (OH)	+302	25%	0
Wisconsin	−302	75%	17

Spread: Wisconsin −11.5
Projected margin: Wisconsin by 11.6

Off by5.4

Thu, Aug 28Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Stony Brook	+211	32%	0
San Diego State	−211	68%	42

Spread: San Diego State −8
Projected margin: San Diego State by 7.9

Off by34.1

Fri, Aug 29Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Tarleton State	+2845	3%	30
Army	−2845	97%	27

Spread: Army −31
Projected margin: Army by 31.2

Off by34.2

Fri, Aug 29Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Western Michigan	+388	20%	6
Michigan State	−388	80%	23

Spread: Michigan State −14
Projected margin: Michigan State by 14.1

Off by2.9

Fri, Aug 29Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Kennesaw State	+1357	7%	9
Wake Forest	−1357	93%	10

Spread: Wake Forest −25.5
Projected margin: Wake Forest by 25.4

Off by24.4

Fri, Aug 29 · Neutral siteCorrect pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
App State	−144	59%	34
Charlotte	+144	41%	11

Spread: App State −4
Projected margin: App State by 3.9

Off by19.1

Fri, Aug 29Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Bethune-Cookman	+8583	1%	9
Florida International	−8583	99%	42

Spread: Florida International −39
Projected margin: Florida International by 38.9

Off by5.9

Fri, Aug 29Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Western Illinois	+14333	1%	3
Illinois	−14333	99%	52

Spread: Illinois −42
Projected margin: Illinois by 42.1

Off by6.9

Fri, Aug 29Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Wagner	+99900	0%	7
Kansas	−99900	100%	46

Spread: Kansas −54
Projected margin: Kansas by 53.8

Off by14.8

Fri, Aug 29Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Auburn	+191	34%	38
Baylor	−191	66%	24

Spread: Baylor −7
Projected margin: Baylor by 6.9

Off by20.9

Fri, Aug 29Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Georgia Tech	+252	28%	27
Colorado	−252	72%	20

Spread: Colorado −10
Projected margin: Colorado by 9.8

Off by16.8

Fri, Aug 29 · Neutral siteCorrect pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
UNLV	−375	79%	38
Sam Houston	+375	21%	21

Spread: UNLV −14
Projected margin: UNLV by 13.8

Off by3.2

Fri, Aug 29Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Central Michigan	+318	24%	16
San José State	−318	76%	14

Spread: San José State −12
Projected margin: San José State by 12.1

Off by14.1

Sat, Aug 30Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Mississippi State	−1203	92%	34
Southern Miss	+1203	8%	17

Spread: Mississippi State −24.5
Projected margin: Mississippi State by 24.4

Off by7.4

Sat, Aug 30 · Neutral siteCorrect pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Syracuse	+597	14%	26
Tennessee	−597	86%	45

Spread: Tennessee −18
Projected margin: Tennessee by 18.2

Off by0.8

Sat, Aug 30Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Texas	+331	23%	7
Ohio State	−331	77%	14

Spread: Ohio State −12.5
Projected margin: Ohio State by 12.5

Off by5.5

Sat, Aug 30Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Florida Atlantic	+1078	8%	7
Maryland	−1078	92%	39

Spread: Maryland −23.5
Projected margin: Maryland by 23.5

Off by8.5

Sat, Aug 30Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Ball State	+190	34%	0
Purdue	−190	66%	31

Spread: Purdue −7
Projected margin: Purdue by 6.8

Off by24.2

Sat, Aug 30Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Northwestern	+749	12%	3
Tulane	−749	88%	23

Spread: Tulane −20.5
Projected margin: Tulane by 20.3

Off by0.3

Sat, Aug 30Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Duquesne	+7634	1%	9
Pittsburgh	−7634	99%	61

Spread: Pittsburgh −38
Projected margin: Pittsburgh by 38.1

Off by13.9

Sat, Aug 30Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
VMI	+59634	0%	7
Navy	−59634	100%	52

Spread: Navy −50
Projected margin: Navy by 50.2

Off by5.2

Sat, Aug 30Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Merrimack	−112	53%	17
Kent State	+112	47%	21

Spread: Merrimack −1
Projected margin: Merrimack by 1.2

Off by5.2

Sat, Aug 30Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Toledo	+459	18%	16
Kentucky	−459	82%	24

Spread: Kentucky −15.5
Projected margin: Kentucky by 15.7

Off by7.7

Sat, Aug 30Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Fordham	+64998	0%	10
Boston College	−64998	100%	66

Spread: Boston College −50.5
Projected margin: Boston College by 50.6

Off by5.4

Sat, Aug 30Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Robert Morris	+4763	2%	3
West Virginia	−4763	98%	45

Spread: West Virginia −35
Projected margin: West Virginia by 34.9

Off by7.1

Sat, Aug 30Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Central Connecticut	+3378	3%	13
UConn	−3378	97%	59

Spread: UConn −32.5
Projected margin: UConn by 32.5

Off by13.5

Sat, Aug 30Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Old Dominion	+2681	4%	14
Indiana	−2681	96%	27

Spread: Indiana −31
Projected margin: Indiana by 30.8

Off by17.8

Sat, Aug 30Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Eastern Kentucky	+31602	0%	17
Louisville	−31602	100%	51

Spread: Louisville −46.5
Projected margin: Louisville by 46.7

Off by12.7

Sat, Aug 30Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Alabama	−1899	95%	17
Florida State	+1899	5%	31

Spread: Alabama −28
Projected margin: Alabama by 28.1

Off by42.1

Sat, Aug 30Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Marshall	+891	10%	7
Georgia	−891	90%	45

Spread: Georgia −22
Projected margin: Georgia by 21.8

Off by16.2

Sat, Aug 30Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Nevada	+6993	1%	11
Penn State	−6993	99%	46

Spread: Penn State −37.5
Projected margin: Penn State by 37.5

Off by2.5

Sat, Aug 30Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
South Dakota	+764	12%	7
Iowa State	−764	88%	55

Spread: Iowa State −20.5
Projected margin: Iowa State by 20.5

Off by27.5

Sat, Aug 30Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Bucknell	+909	10%	13
Air Force	−909	90%	49

Spread: Air Force −22
Projected margin: Air Force by 22.0

Off by14.0

Sat, Aug 30Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Temple	−124	55%	42
Massachusetts	+124	45%	10

Spread: Temple −2.5
Projected margin: Temple by 2.3

Off by29.7

Sat, Aug 30Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Holy Cross	+1480	6%	17
Northern Illinois	−1480	94%	19

Spread: Northern Illinois −26
Projected margin: Northern Illinois by 26.1

Off by24.1

Sat, Aug 30Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Montana State	+986	9%	13
Oregon	−986	91%	59

Spread: Oregon −22.5
Projected margin: Oregon by 22.7

Off by23.3

Sat, Aug 30Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Maine	+617	14%	7
Liberty	−617	86%	28

Spread: Liberty −18.5
Projected margin: Liberty by 18.5

Off by2.5

Sat, Aug 30Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Alabama A&M	+50263	0%	7
Arkansas	−50263	100%	52

Spread: Arkansas −49
Projected margin: Arkansas by 49.2

Off by4.2

Sat, Aug 30Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Chattanooga	+1624	6%	10
Memphis	−1624	94%	45

Spread: Memphis −27
Projected margin: Memphis by 26.9

Off by8.1

Sat, Aug 30Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Illinois State	+6947	1%	3
Oklahoma	−6947	99%	35

Spread: Oklahoma −37.5
Projected margin: Oklahoma by 37.5

Off by5.5

Sat, Aug 30Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
UAlbany	+52629	0%	7
Iowa	−52629	100%	34

Spread: Iowa −49.5
Projected margin: Iowa by 49.5

Off by22.5

Sat, Aug 30Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Coastal Carolina	+294	25%	7
Virginia	−294	75%	48

Spread: Virginia −11.5
Projected margin: Virginia by 11.3

Off by29.7

Sat, Aug 30Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Weber State	+4017	2%	10
James Madison	−4017	98%	45

Spread: James Madison −33.5
Projected margin: James Madison by 33.7

Off by1.3

Sat, Aug 30Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Long Island University	+54209	0%	0
Florida	−54209	100%	55

Spread: Florida −49.5
Projected margin: Florida by 49.7

Off by5.3

Sat, Aug 30Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
UTSA	+1703	6%	24
Texas A&M	−1703	94%	42

Spread: Texas A&M −27.5
Projected margin: Texas A&M by 27.3

Off by9.3

Sat, Aug 30Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Charleston Southern	+75543	0%	3
Vanderbilt	−75543	100%	45

Spread: Vanderbilt −51.5
Projected margin: Vanderbilt by 51.4

Off by9.4

Sat, Aug 30Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
North Dakota	+7628	1%	35
Kansas State	−7628	99%	38

Spread: Kansas State −38
Projected margin: Kansas State by 38.1

Off by35.1

Sat, Aug 30Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Austin Peay	+126	44%	34
Middle Tennessee	−126	56%	14

Spread: Middle Tennessee −2.5
Projected margin: Middle Tennessee by 2.5

Off by22.5

Sat, Aug 30Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
North Alabama	+849	11%	6
Western Kentucky	−849	89%	55

Spread: Western Kentucky −21.5
Projected margin: Western Kentucky by 21.4

Off by27.6

Sat, Aug 30Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Southeast Missouri State	+409	20%	24
Arkansas State	−409	80%	42

Spread: Arkansas State −14.5
Projected margin: Arkansas State by 14.6

Off by3.4

Sat, Aug 30Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Morgan State	+2950	3%	21
South Alabama	−2950	97%	38

Spread: South Alabama −31.5
Projected margin: South Alabama by 31.5

Off by14.5

Sat, Aug 30Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Nicholls	+1265	7%	20
Troy	−1265	93%	38

Spread: Troy −25
Projected margin: Troy by 24.8

Off by6.8

Sat, Aug 30Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
LSU	+130	44%	17
Clemson	−130	56%	10

Spread: Clemson −3
Projected margin: Clemson by 2.8

Off by9.8

Sat, Aug 30Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Missouri State	+6443	2%	13
USC	−6443	98%	73

Spread: USC −37
Projected margin: USC by 37.0

Off by23.0

Sat, Aug 30Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
New Mexico	+3873	3%	17
Michigan	−3873	97%	34

Spread: Michigan −33.5
Projected margin: Michigan by 33.5

Off by16.5

Sat, Aug 30Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Arkansas-Pine Bluff	+99900	0%	7
Texas Tech	−99900	100%	67

Spread: Texas Tech −61.5
Projected margin: Texas Tech by 61.6

Off by1.6

Sat, Aug 30Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
SE Louisiana	+588	15%	0
Louisiana Tech	−588	85%	24

Spread: Louisiana Tech −18
Projected margin: Louisiana Tech by 18.1

Off by5.9

Sat, Aug 30Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
UTEP	+392	20%	16
Utah State	−392	80%	28

Spread: Utah State −14
Projected margin: Utah State by 14.2

Off by2.2

Sat, Aug 30Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Georgia State	+12510	1%	7
Ole Miss	−12510	99%	63

Spread: Ole Miss −41
Projected margin: Ole Miss by 41.2

Off by14.8

Sat, Aug 30Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Portland State	+12442	1%	0
BYU	−12442	99%	69

Spread: BYU −41
Projected margin: BYU by 41.2

Off by27.8

Sat, Aug 30Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Rice	+330	23%	14
Louisiana	−330	77%	12

Spread: Louisiana −12.5
Projected margin: Louisiana by 12.5

Off by14.5

Sat, Aug 30Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Eastern Michigan	+772	11%	27
Texas State	−772	89%	52

Spread: Texas State −20.5
Projected margin: Texas State by 20.5

Off by4.5

Sat, Aug 30Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Lamar	+896	10%	0
North Texas	−896	90%	51

Spread: North Texas −22
Projected margin: North Texas by 21.9

Off by29.1

Sat, Aug 30Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Abilene Christian	−210	68%	7
Tulsa	+210	32%	35

Spread: Abilene Christian −8
Projected margin: Abilene Christian by 7.9

Off by35.9

Sat, Aug 30Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
East Texas A&M	+99900	0%	13
SMU	−99900	100%	42

Spread: SMU −61
Projected margin: SMU by 61.1

Off by32.1

Sat, Aug 30Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Bryant	+714	12%	3
New Mexico State	−714	88%	19

Spread: New Mexico State −20
Projected margin: New Mexico State by 19.8

Off by3.8

Sat, Aug 30Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Georgia Southern	−132	57%	14
Fresno State	+132	43%	42

Spread: Georgia Southern −3
Projected margin: Georgia Southern by 3.0

Off by31.0

Sat, Aug 30Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Idaho	+474	17%	10
Washington State	−474	83%	13

Spread: Washington State −16
Projected margin: Washington State by 16.0

Off by13.0

Sat, Aug 30Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Northern Arizona	+15600	1%	19
Arizona State	−15600	99%	38

Spread: Arizona State −42.5
Projected margin: Arizona State by 42.6

Off by23.6

Sat, Aug 30Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
California	−378	79%	34
Oregon State	+378	21%	15

Spread: California −14
Projected margin: California by 13.8

Off by5.2

Sat, Aug 30Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Hawai'i	+402	20%	6
Arizona	−402	80%	40

Spread: Arizona −14.5
Projected margin: Arizona by 14.4

Off by19.6

Sat, Aug 30Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Utah	−135	57%	43
UCLA	+135	43%	10

Spread: Utah −3
Projected margin: Utah by 3.2

Off by29.8

Sat, Aug 30Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Colorado State	+958	9%	21
Washington	−958	91%	38

Spread: Washington −22.5
Projected margin: Washington by 22.5

Off by5.5

Sun, Aug 31 · Neutral siteCorrect pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Virginia Tech	+250	29%	11
South Carolina	−250	71%	24

Spread: South Carolina −9.5
Projected margin: South Carolina by 9.7

Off by3.3

Sun, Aug 31Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Notre Dame	−191	66%	24
Miami	+191	34%	27

Spread: Notre Dame −7
Projected margin: Notre Dame by 6.9

Off by9.9

Mon, Sep 1Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
TCU	−200	67%	48
North Carolina	+200	33%	14

Spread: TCU −7.5
Projected margin: TCU by 7.3

Off by26.7

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