Archive

A history of our predictions. A model is only worth what its predictions are, so all of ours are made public after games end.

Were the model's chances right?

Every game is sorted by the chance that the Field Theory model gave each team to win. Each bar shows the amount of teams in that prediction range that actually won. When the model's chances are honest, the bar boundary ends up inside the shaded band.

How often the model's favorites won, by the chance it gave them
Model's chance for the favorite	Favorites won	Underdogs won
90% to 100% (underdog 0% to 10%)	96%	4%
80% to 90% (underdog 10% to 20%)	82%	18%
70% to 80% (underdog 20% to 30%)	76%	24%
60% to 70% (underdog 30% to 40%)	63%	37%
50% to 60% (underdog 40% to 50%)	50%	50%

76%Winners picked1148 of 1508 games, not including toss-ups

12.7Average missPoints between projected and final margin among FBS matchups

1522GamesFinal with a pregame prediction, all seasons

Click here to see Field Theory's advanced statistics.

Week 5

42 of 52 winners picked (81%) · average miss 10.2 pts

Thu, Sep 25Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Army	−162	62%	6
East Carolina	+162	38%	28

Spread: Army −5
Projected margin: Army by 5.2

Off by27.2

Fri, Sep 26Toss-up

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Florida State	−101	50%	38
Virginia	+101	50%	46

Spread: Pick'em
Projected margin: Florida State by 0.1

Off by8.1

Fri, Sep 26Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
TCU	−131	57%	24
Arizona State	+131	43%	27

Spread: TCU −3
Projected margin: TCU by 2.9

Off by5.9

Fri, Sep 26Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Houston	−665	87%	27
Oregon State	+665	13%	24

Spread: Houston −19
Projected margin: Houston by 19.2

Off by16.2

Sat, Sep 27Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Notre Dame	−306	75%	56
Arkansas	+306	25%	13

Spread: Notre Dame −11.5
Projected margin: Notre Dame by 11.7

Off by31.3

Sat, Sep 27Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Rutgers	+103	49%	28
Minnesota	−103	51%	31

Spread: Minnesota −0.5
Projected margin: Minnesota by 0.3

Off by2.7

Sat, Sep 27Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
USC	−166	62%	32
Illinois	+166	38%	34

Spread: USC −5.5
Projected margin: USC by 5.4

Off by7.4

Sat, Sep 27Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Duke	+134	43%	38
Syracuse	−134	57%	3

Spread: Syracuse −3
Projected margin: Syracuse by 3.1

Off by38.1

Sat, Sep 27Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Georgia Tech	−271	73%	30
Wake Forest	+271	27%	29

Spread: Georgia Tech −10.5
Projected margin: Georgia Tech by 10.5

Off by9.5

Sat, Sep 27Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Louisville	−237	70%	34
Pittsburgh	+237	30%	27

Spread: Louisville −9
Projected margin: Louisville by 9.1

Off by2.1

Sat, Sep 27Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Cincinnati	+222	31%	37
Kansas	−222	69%	34

Spread: Kansas −8.5
Projected margin: Kansas by 8.5

Off by11.5

Sat, Sep 27Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
UCF	+116	46%	20
Kansas State	−116	54%	34

Spread: Kansas State −1.5
Projected margin: Kansas State by 1.6

Off by12.4

Sat, Sep 27Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
South Alabama	+570	15%	22
North Texas	−570	85%	36

Spread: North Texas −18
Projected margin: North Texas by 17.8

Off by3.8

Sat, Sep 27Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Bowling Green	+269	27%	20
Ohio	−269	73%	35

Spread: Ohio −10.5
Projected margin: Ohio by 10.4

Off by4.6

Sat, Sep 27Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Utah State	+1130	8%	35
Vanderbilt	−1130	92%	55

Spread: Vanderbilt −24
Projected margin: Vanderbilt by 23.9

Off by3.9

Sat, Sep 27Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Eastern Michigan	+130	44%	13
Central Michigan	−130	56%	24

Spread: Central Michigan −3
Projected margin: Central Michigan by 2.8

Off by8.2

Sat, Sep 27Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Georgia Southern	+362	22%	10
James Madison	−362	78%	35

Spread: James Madison −13.5
Projected margin: James Madison by 13.4

Off by11.6

Sat, Sep 27Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Arkansas State	+111	47%	16
UL Monroe	−111	53%	28

Spread: UL Monroe −1
Projected margin: UL Monroe by 1.2

Off by10.8

Sat, Sep 27Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
LSU	+417	19%	19
Ole Miss	−417	81%	24

Spread: Ole Miss −15
Projected margin: Ole Miss by 14.8

Off by9.8

Sat, Sep 27Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Auburn	+214	32%	10
Texas A&M	−214	68%	16

Spread: Texas A&M −8
Projected margin: Texas A&M by 8.1

Off by2.1

Sat, Sep 27Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
UCLA	+224	31%	14
Northwestern	−224	69%	17

Spread: Northwestern −8.5
Projected margin: Northwestern by 8.5

Off by5.5

Sat, Sep 27Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Ohio State	−152	60%	24
Washington	+152	40%	6

Spread: Ohio State −4.5
Projected margin: Ohio State by 4.5

Off by13.5

Sat, Sep 27Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Indiana	−883	90%	20
Iowa	+883	10%	15

Spread: Indiana −21.5
Projected margin: Indiana by 21.7

Off by16.7

Sat, Sep 27Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
California	+238	30%	28
Boston College	−238	70%	24

Spread: Boston College −9
Projected margin: Boston College by 9.2

Off by13.2

Sat, Sep 27Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Baylor	−481	83%	45
Oklahoma State	+481	17%	27

Spread: Baylor −16
Projected margin: Baylor by 16.2

Off by1.8

Sat, Sep 27Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Utah	−415	81%	48
West Virginia	+415	19%	14

Spread: Utah −14.5
Projected margin: Utah by 14.7

Off by19.3

Sat, Sep 27Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
UConn	−189	65%	20
Buffalo	+189	35%	17

Spread: UConn −7
Projected margin: UConn by 6.8

Off by3.8

Sat, Sep 27Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
San Diego State	−110	52%	6
Northern Illinois	+110	48%	3

Spread: San Diego State −1
Projected margin: San Diego State by 1.0

Off by2.0

Sat, Sep 27Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Rice	+994	9%	13
Navy	−994	91%	21

Spread: Navy −23
Projected margin: Navy by 22.8

Off by14.8

Sat, Sep 27Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Akron	+1020	9%	3
Toledo	−1020	91%	45

Spread: Toledo −23
Projected margin: Toledo by 23.0

Off by19.0

Sat, Sep 27Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Lindenwood	+1616	6%	0
Miami (OH)	−1616	94%	38

Spread: Miami (OH) −27
Projected margin: Miami (OH) by 26.8

Off by11.2

Sat, Sep 27Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
New Mexico State	+1080	8%	20
New Mexico	−1080	92%	38

Spread: New Mexico −23.5
Projected margin: New Mexico by 23.5

Off by5.5

Sat, Sep 27Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Hawai'i	+159	39%	44
Air Force	−159	61%	35

Spread: Air Force −5
Projected margin: Air Force by 5.0

Off by14.0

Sat, Sep 27Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Tulane	−792	89%	31
Tulsa	+792	11%	14

Spread: Tulane −21
Projected margin: Tulane by 20.8

Off by3.8

Sat, Sep 27Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Tennessee	−352	78%	41
Mississippi State	+352	22%	34

Spread: Tennessee −13
Projected margin: Tennessee by 13.1

Off by6.1

Sat, Sep 27Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Middle Tennessee	+217	32%	16
Kennesaw State	−217	68%	24

Spread: Kennesaw State −8
Projected margin: Kennesaw State by 8.2

Off by0.2

Sat, Sep 27Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Liberty	+1563	6%	7
Old Dominion	−1563	94%	21

Spread: Old Dominion −26.5
Projected margin: Old Dominion by 26.6

Off by12.6

Sat, Sep 27Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Rhode Island	+380	21%	14
Western Michigan	−380	79%	47

Spread: Western Michigan −14
Projected margin: Western Michigan by 13.9

Off by19.1

Sat, Sep 27Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Virginia Tech	+159	39%	23
NC State	−159	61%	21

Spread: NC State −5
Projected margin: NC State by 5.0

Off by7.0

Sat, Sep 27Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Arizona	+402	20%	14
Iowa State	−402	80%	39

Spread: Iowa State −14.5
Projected margin: Iowa State by 14.4

Off by10.6

Sat, Sep 27Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Jacksonville State	−277	73%	25
Southern Miss	+277	27%	42

Spread: Jacksonville State −10.5
Projected margin: Jacksonville State by 10.7

Off by27.7

Sat, Sep 27Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Western Kentucky	−149	60%	27
Missouri State	+149	40%	22

Spread: Western Kentucky −4.5
Projected margin: Western Kentucky by 4.3

Off by0.7

Sat, Sep 27Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Memphis	−488	83%	55
Florida Atlantic	+488	17%	26

Spread: Memphis −16.5
Projected margin: Memphis by 16.3

Off by12.7

Sat, Sep 27Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Alabama	−106	51%	24
Georgia	+106	49%	21

Spread: Alabama −0.5
Projected margin: Alabama by 0.6

Off by2.4

Sat, Sep 27Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Massachusetts	+24979	0%	6
Missouri	−24979	100%	42

Spread: Missouri −45.5
Projected margin: Missouri by 45.4

Off by9.4

Sat, Sep 27Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Oregon	−119	54%	30
Penn State	+119	46%	24

Spread: Oregon −2
Projected margin: Oregon by 1.8

Off by4.2

Sat, Sep 27Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Washington State	−121	55%	20
Colorado State	+121	45%	3

Spread: Washington State −2
Projected margin: Washington State by 2.0

Off by15.0

Sat, Sep 27Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
San José State	+171	37%	29
Stanford	−171	63%	30

Spread: Stanford −5.5
Projected margin: Stanford by 5.7

Off by4.7

Sat, Sep 27Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
App State	+1298	7%	14
Boise State	−1298	93%	47

Spread: Boise State −25
Projected margin: Boise State by 25.0

Off by8.0

Sat, Sep 27Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Kentucky	+197	34%	13
South Carolina	−197	66%	35

Spread: South Carolina −7
Projected margin: South Carolina by 7.2

Off by14.8

Sat, Sep 27Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Marshall	−106	52%	51
Louisiana	+106	48%	54

Spread: Marshall −0.5
Projected margin: Marshall by 0.7

Off by3.7

Sat, Sep 27Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Louisiana Tech	−152	60%	30
UTEP	+152	40%	11

Spread: Louisiana Tech −4.5
Projected margin: Louisiana Tech by 4.5

Off by14.5

Sat, Sep 27Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
BYU	−215	68%	24
Colorado	+215	32%	21

Spread: BYU −8
Projected margin: BYU by 8.1

Off by5.1

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