Archive

A history of our predictions. A model is only worth what its predictions are, so all of ours are made public after games end.

Were the model's chances right?

Every game is sorted by the chance that the Field Theory model gave each team to win. Each bar shows the amount of teams in that prediction range that actually won. When the model's chances are honest, the bar boundary ends up inside the shaded band.

How often the model's favorites won, by the chance it gave them
Model's chance for the favorite	Favorites won	Underdogs won
90% to 100% (underdog 0% to 10%)	96%	4%
80% to 90% (underdog 10% to 20%)	82%	18%
70% to 80% (underdog 20% to 30%)	76%	24%
60% to 70% (underdog 30% to 40%)	63%	37%
50% to 60% (underdog 40% to 50%)	50%	50%

76%Winners picked1148 of 1508 games, not including toss-ups

12.7Average missPoints between projected and final margin among FBS matchups

1522GamesFinal with a pregame prediction, all seasons

Click here to see Field Theory's advanced statistics.

Week 12

48 of 59 winners picked (81%) · average miss 11.0 pts

Tue, Nov 11Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Kent State	+324	24%	42
Akron	−324	76%	35

Spread: Akron −12.5
Projected margin: Akron by 12.3

Off by19.3

Tue, Nov 11Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Ohio	−123	55%	13
Western Michigan	+123	45%	17

Spread: Ohio −2
Projected margin: Ohio by 2.2

Off by6.2

Wed, Nov 12Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Buffalo	+137	42%	19
Central Michigan	−137	58%	38

Spread: Central Michigan −3.5
Projected margin: Central Michigan by 3.4

Off by15.6

Wed, Nov 12Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Northern Illinois	−460	82%	45
Massachusetts	+460	18%	3

Spread: Northern Illinois −15.5
Projected margin: Northern Illinois by 15.7

Off by26.3

Wed, Nov 12Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Toledo	−116	54%	24
Miami (OH)	+116	46%	3

Spread: Toledo −1.5
Projected margin: Toledo by 1.6

Off by19.4

Thu, Nov 13Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Troy	+364	22%	0
Old Dominion	−364	78%	33

Spread: Old Dominion −13.5
Projected margin: Old Dominion by 13.5

Off by19.5

Fri, Nov 14Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Clemson	+146	41%	20
Louisville	−146	59%	19

Spread: Louisville −4
Projected margin: Louisville by 4.0

Off by5.0

Fri, Nov 14Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Minnesota	+2727	4%	13
Oregon	−2727	96%	42

Spread: Oregon −31
Projected margin: Oregon by 30.9

Off by1.9

Sat, Nov 15Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
South Carolina	+378	21%	30
Texas A&M	−378	79%	31

Spread: Texas A&M −14
Projected margin: Texas A&M by 13.8

Off by12.8

Sat, Nov 15Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Wisconsin	+7534	1%	7
Indiana	−7534	99%	31

Spread: Indiana −38
Projected margin: Indiana by 38.0

Off by14.0

Sat, Nov 15 · Neutral siteCorrect pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Michigan	−285	74%	24
Northwestern	+285	26%	22

Spread: Michigan −11
Projected margin: Michigan by 11.0

Off by9.0

Sat, Nov 15Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Notre Dame	−680	87%	37
Pittsburgh	+680	13%	15

Spread: Notre Dame −19.5
Projected margin: Notre Dame by 19.4

Off by2.6

Sat, Nov 15Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Arizona	+108	48%	30
Cincinnati	−108	52%	24

Spread: Cincinnati −1
Projected margin: Cincinnati by 0.8

Off by6.8

Sat, Nov 15Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Kansas State	−824	89%	14
Oklahoma State	+824	11%	6

Spread: Kansas State −21
Projected margin: Kansas State by 21.1

Off by13.1

Sat, Nov 15Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Air Force	+189	35%	16
UConn	−189	65%	26

Spread: UConn −7
Projected margin: UConn by 6.8

Off by3.2

Sat, Nov 15Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
UTSA	−416	81%	28
Charlotte	+416	19%	7

Spread: UTSA −15
Projected margin: UTSA by 14.8

Off by6.2

Sat, Nov 15Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
South Florida	−127	56%	38
Navy	+127	44%	41

Spread: South Florida −2.5
Projected margin: South Florida by 2.5

Off by5.5

Sat, Nov 15Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Eastern Michigan	−104	51%	24
Ball State	+104	49%	9

Spread: Eastern Michigan −0.5
Projected margin: Eastern Michigan by 0.4

Off by14.6

Sat, Nov 15Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Arkansas	+223	31%	22
LSU	−223	69%	23

Spread: LSU −8.5
Projected margin: LSU by 8.5

Off by7.5

Sat, Nov 15Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Oregon State	−138	58%	14
Tulsa	+138	42%	31

Spread: Oregon State −3.5
Projected margin: Oregon State by 3.4

Off by20.4

Sat, Nov 15Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
West Virginia	+407	20%	23
Arizona State	−407	80%	25

Spread: Arizona State −14.5
Projected margin: Arizona State by 14.6

Off by12.6

Sat, Nov 15Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Tennessee Tech	+1218	8%	10
Kentucky	−1218	92%	42

Spread: Kentucky −24.5
Projected margin: Kentucky by 24.5

Off by7.5

Sat, Nov 15Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Marshall	−393	80%	30
Georgia State	+393	20%	18

Spread: Marshall −14
Projected margin: Marshall by 14.2

Off by2.2

Sat, Nov 15Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
North Texas	−865	90%	53
UAB	+865	10%	24

Spread: North Texas −21.5
Projected margin: North Texas by 21.6

Off by7.4

Sat, Nov 15Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
UTEP	+228	30%	24
Missouri State	−228	70%	38

Spread: Missouri State −8.5
Projected margin: Missouri State by 8.7

Off by5.3

Sat, Nov 15Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Colorado State	+455	18%	17
New Mexico	−455	82%	20

Spread: New Mexico −15.5
Projected margin: New Mexico by 15.6

Off by12.6

Sat, Nov 15Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Oklahoma	+287	26%	23
Alabama	−287	74%	21

Spread: Alabama −11
Projected margin: Alabama by 11.1

Off by13.1

Sat, Nov 15Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Penn State	−456	82%	28
Michigan State	+456	18%	10

Spread: Penn State −15.5
Projected margin: Penn State by 15.7

Off by2.3

Sat, Nov 15Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Maryland	+496	17%	6
Illinois	−496	83%	24

Spread: Illinois −16.5
Projected margin: Illinois by 16.5

Off by1.5

Sat, Nov 15Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Iowa	+164	38%	21
USC	−164	62%	26

Spread: USC −5
Projected margin: USC by 5.2

Off by0.2

Sat, Nov 15Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Georgia Tech	−292	74%	36
Boston College	+292	26%	34

Spread: Georgia Tech −11.5
Projected margin: Georgia Tech by 11.3

Off by9.3

Sat, Nov 15Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Virginia	+122	45%	34
Duke	−122	55%	17

Spread: Duke −2
Projected margin: Duke by 2.1

Off by19.1

Sat, Nov 15Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
NC State	+1059	9%	7
Miami	−1059	91%	41

Spread: Miami −23.5
Projected margin: Miami by 23.3

Off by10.7

Sat, Nov 15Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
UCF	+590	14%	9
Texas Tech	−590	86%	48

Spread: Texas Tech −18
Projected margin: Texas Tech by 18.1

Off by20.9

Sat, Nov 15Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Middle Tennessee	+797	11%	26
Western Kentucky	−797	89%	42

Spread: Western Kentucky −21
Projected margin: Western Kentucky by 20.8

Off by4.8

Sat, Nov 15Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
San José State	−243	71%	10
Nevada	+243	29%	55

Spread: San José State −9.5
Projected margin: San José State by 9.4

Off by54.4

Sat, Nov 15Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
App State	+1502	6%	10
James Madison	−1502	94%	58

Spread: James Madison −26
Projected margin: James Madison by 26.2

Off by21.8

Sat, Nov 15Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
South Alabama	−186	65%	26
UL Monroe	+186	35%	14

Spread: South Alabama −6.5
Projected margin: South Alabama by 6.6

Off by5.4

Sat, Nov 15Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Texas State	−180	64%	41
Southern Miss	+180	36%	14

Spread: Texas State −6
Projected margin: Texas State by 6.2

Off by20.8

Sat, Nov 15Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Memphis	+118	46%	27
East Carolina	−118	54%	31

Spread: East Carolina −1.5
Projected margin: East Carolina by 1.7

Off by2.3

Sat, Nov 15Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Florida Atlantic	+629	14%	24
Tulane	−629	86%	35

Spread: Tulane −18.5
Projected margin: Tulane by 18.7

Off by7.7

Sat, Nov 15Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
New Mexico State	+7089	1%	9
Tennessee	−7089	99%	42

Spread: Tennessee −37.5
Projected margin: Tennessee by 37.6

Off by4.6

Sat, Nov 15Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
North Carolina	+198	34%	12
Wake Forest	−198	66%	28

Spread: Wake Forest −7.5
Projected margin: Wake Forest by 7.3

Off by8.7

Sat, Nov 15Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Liberty	+107	48%	27
Florida International	−107	52%	34

Spread: Florida International −1
Projected margin: Florida International by 0.8

Off by6.2

Sat, Nov 15Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Coastal Carolina	+148	40%	40
Georgia Southern	−148	60%	45

Spread: Georgia Southern −4
Projected margin: Georgia Southern by 4.2

Off by0.8

Sat, Nov 15Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Florida	+469	18%	24
Ole Miss	−469	82%	34

Spread: Ole Miss −16
Projected margin: Ole Miss by 15.9

Off by5.9

Sat, Nov 15Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Purdue	+927	10%	13
Washington	−927	90%	49

Spread: Washington −22
Projected margin: Washington by 22.2

Off by13.8

Sat, Nov 15Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Utah	−309	76%	55
Baylor	+309	24%	28

Spread: Utah −12
Projected margin: Utah by 11.8

Off by15.2

Sat, Nov 15 · Neutral siteMissed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Delaware	−120	55%	23
Sam Houston	+120	45%	26

Spread: Delaware −2
Projected margin: Delaware by 2.0

Off by5.0

Sat, Nov 15Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Utah State	+209	32%	26
UNLV	−209	68%	29

Spread: UNLV −8
Projected margin: UNLV by 7.8

Off by4.8

Sat, Nov 15Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Texas	+146	41%	10
Georgia	−146	59%	35

Spread: Georgia −4
Projected margin: Georgia by 4.0

Off by21.0

Sat, Nov 15Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
UCLA	+6593	1%	10
Ohio State	−6593	99%	48

Spread: Ohio State −37
Projected margin: Ohio State by 37.1

Off by0.9

Sat, Nov 15Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Virginia Tech	+311	24%	14
Florida State	−311	76%	34

Spread: Florida State −12
Projected margin: Florida State by 11.9

Off by8.1

Sat, Nov 15Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Mississippi State	+299	25%	27
Missouri	−299	75%	49

Spread: Missouri −11.5
Projected margin: Missouri by 11.5

Off by10.5

Sat, Nov 15Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Kennesaw State	+208	32%	26
Jacksonville State	−208	68%	35

Spread: Jacksonville State −8
Projected margin: Jacksonville State by 7.8

Off by1.2

Sat, Nov 15Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Louisiana Tech	+292	26%	3
Washington State	−292	74%	28

Spread: Washington State −11.5
Projected margin: Washington State by 11.3

Off by13.7

Sat, Nov 15Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
TCU	+193	34%	13
BYU	−193	66%	44

Spread: BYU −7
Projected margin: BYU by 7.0

Off by24.0

Sat, Nov 15Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Boise State	−155	61%	7
San Diego State	+155	39%	17

Spread: Boise State −4.5
Projected margin: Boise State by 4.7

Off by14.7

Sat, Nov 15Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Wyoming	+145	41%	3
Fresno State	−145	59%	24

Spread: Fresno State −4
Projected margin: Fresno State by 4.0

Off by17.0

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