Archive

A history of our predictions. A model is only worth what its predictions are, so all of ours are made public after games end.

Were the model's chances right?

Every game is sorted by the chance that the Field Theory model gave each team to win. Each bar shows the amount of teams in that prediction range that actually won. When the model's chances are honest, the bar boundary ends up inside the shaded band.

How often the model's favorites won, by the chance it gave them
Model's chance for the favorite	Favorites won	Underdogs won
90% to 100% (underdog 0% to 10%)	96%	4%
80% to 90% (underdog 10% to 20%)	82%	18%
70% to 80% (underdog 20% to 30%)	76%	24%
60% to 70% (underdog 30% to 40%)	63%	37%
50% to 60% (underdog 40% to 50%)	50%	50%

76%Winners picked1148 of 1508 games, not including toss-ups

12.7Average missPoints between projected and final margin among FBS matchups

1522GamesFinal with a pregame prediction, all seasons

Click here to see Field Theory's advanced statistics.

Week 13

50 of 63 winners picked (79%) · average miss 11.8 pts

Tue, Nov 18Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Akron	+279	26%	19
Bowling Green	−279	74%	16

Spread: Bowling Green −11
Projected margin: Bowling Green by 10.8

Off by13.8

Tue, Nov 18Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Massachusetts	+4846	2%	14
Ohio	−4846	98%	42

Spread: Ohio −35
Projected margin: Ohio by 35.0

Off by7.0

Tue, Nov 18Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Western Michigan	−150	60%	35
Northern Illinois	+150	40%	19

Spread: Western Michigan −4.5
Projected margin: Western Michigan by 4.4

Off by11.6

Wed, Nov 19Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Miami (OH)	−191	66%	37
Buffalo	+191	34%	20

Spread: Miami (OH) −7
Projected margin: Miami (OH) by 6.9

Off by10.1

Wed, Nov 19Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Central Michigan	−301	75%	28
Kent State	+301	25%	16

Spread: Central Michigan −11.5
Projected margin: Central Michigan by 11.5

Off by0.5

Thu, Nov 20Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Louisiana	−128	56%	34
Arkansas State	+128	44%	30

Spread: Louisiana −2.5
Projected margin: Louisiana by 2.7

Off by1.3

Fri, Nov 21Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Florida State	−149	60%	11
NC State	+149	40%	21

Spread: Florida State −4.5
Projected margin: Florida State by 4.3

Off by14.3

Fri, Nov 21Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Hawai'i	+251	28%	10
UNLV	−251	72%	38

Spread: UNLV −9.5
Projected margin: UNLV by 9.7

Off by18.3

Sat, Nov 22Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Missouri	+176	36%	6
Oklahoma	−176	64%	17

Spread: Oklahoma −6
Projected margin: Oklahoma by 6.0

Off by5.0

Sat, Nov 22Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Samford	+99900	0%	0
Texas A&M	−99900	100%	48

Spread: Texas A&M −57.5
Projected margin: Texas A&M by 57.4

Off by9.4

Sat, Nov 22 · Neutral siteCorrect pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Minnesota	+136	42%	35
Northwestern	−136	58%	38

Spread: Northwestern −3.5
Projected margin: Northwestern by 3.3

Off by0.3

Sat, Nov 22Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Rutgers	+2734	4%	9
Ohio State	−2734	96%	42

Spread: Ohio State −31
Projected margin: Ohio State by 30.9

Off by2.1

Sat, Nov 22Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Louisville	+157	39%	6
SMU	−157	61%	38

Spread: SMU −5
Projected margin: SMU by 4.8

Off by27.2

Sat, Nov 22Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Miami	−1272	93%	34
Virginia Tech	+1272	7%	17

Spread: Miami −25
Projected margin: Miami by 24.9

Off by7.9

Sat, Nov 22Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Delaware	+744	12%	14
Wake Forest	−744	88%	52

Spread: Wake Forest −20
Projected margin: Wake Forest by 20.2

Off by17.8

Sat, Nov 22Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Kansas	+243	29%	14
Iowa State	−243	71%	38

Spread: Iowa State −9.5
Projected margin: Iowa State by 9.4

Off by14.6

Sat, Nov 22Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Tulsa	+780	11%	26
Army	−780	89%	25

Spread: Army −20.5
Projected margin: Army by 20.6

Off by21.6

Sat, Nov 22Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Charlotte	+18843	1%	3
Georgia	−18843	99%	35

Spread: Georgia −43.5
Projected margin: Georgia by 43.7

Off by11.7

Sat, Nov 22Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Washington State	+261	28%	20
James Madison	−261	72%	24

Spread: James Madison −10
Projected margin: James Madison by 10.1

Off by6.1

Sat, Nov 22Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Baylor	+155	39%	17
Arizona	−155	61%	41

Spread: Arizona −4.5
Projected margin: Arizona by 4.7

Off by19.3

Sat, Nov 22Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Old Dominion	−240	71%	45
Georgia Southern	+240	29%	10

Spread: Old Dominion −9
Projected margin: Old Dominion by 9.2

Off by25.8

Sat, Nov 22Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Eastern Illinois	+99900	0%	0
Alabama	−99900	100%	56

Spread: Alabama −58.5
Projected margin: Alabama by 58.5

Off by2.5

Sat, Nov 22Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Mercer	+1340	7%	17
Auburn	−1340	93%	62

Spread: Auburn −25.5
Projected margin: Auburn by 25.3

Off by19.7

Sat, Nov 22Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Missouri State	−119	54%	34
Kennesaw State	+119	46%	41

Spread: Missouri State −2
Projected margin: Missouri State by 1.9

Off by8.9

Sat, Nov 22Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Nevada	+250	29%	13
Wyoming	−250	71%	7

Spread: Wyoming −9.5
Projected margin: Wyoming by 9.7

Off by15.7

Sat, Nov 22Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Ball State	+1443	6%	9
Toledo	−1443	94%	38

Spread: Toledo −26
Projected margin: Toledo by 25.9

Off by3.1

Sat, Nov 22Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Marshall	−246	71%	24
App State	+246	29%	26

Spread: Marshall −9.5
Projected margin: Marshall by 9.5

Off by11.5

Sat, Nov 22Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
UConn	−156	61%	48
Florida Atlantic	+156	39%	45

Spread: UConn −5
Projected margin: UConn by 4.8

Off by1.8

Sat, Nov 22Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Liberty	+211	32%	28
Louisiana Tech	−211	68%	34

Spread: Louisiana Tech −8
Projected margin: Louisiana Tech by 7.9

Off by1.9

Sat, Nov 22Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Sam Houston	−118	54%	17
Middle Tennessee	+118	46%	31

Spread: Sam Houston −2
Projected margin: Sam Houston by 1.8

Off by15.8

Sat, Nov 22Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
New Mexico State	+127	44%	34
UTEP	−127	56%	31

Spread: UTEP −2.5
Projected margin: UTEP by 2.5

Off by5.5

Sat, Nov 22Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
South Florida	−888	90%	48
UAB	+888	10%	18

Spread: South Florida −22
Projected margin: South Florida by 21.8

Off by8.2

Sat, Nov 22Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Arkansas	+448	18%	37
Texas	−448	82%	52

Spread: Texas −15.5
Projected margin: Texas by 15.5

Off by0.5

Sat, Nov 22Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Kentucky	+301	25%	17
Vanderbilt	−301	75%	45

Spread: Vanderbilt −11.5
Projected margin: Vanderbilt by 11.6

Off by16.4

Sat, Nov 22Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
USC	+272	27%	27
Oregon	−272	73%	42

Spread: Oregon −10.5
Projected margin: Oregon by 10.5

Off by4.5

Sat, Nov 22Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Michigan State	+1012	9%	17
Iowa	−1012	91%	20

Spread: Iowa −23
Projected margin: Iowa by 22.9

Off by19.9

Sat, Nov 22Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Duke	−169	63%	32
North Carolina	+169	37%	25

Spread: Duke −5.5
Projected margin: Duke by 5.6

Off by1.4

Sat, Nov 22Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Syracuse	+7298	1%	7
Notre Dame	−7298	99%	70

Spread: Notre Dame −38
Projected margin: Notre Dame by 37.8

Off by25.2

Sat, Nov 22Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Jacksonville State	−113	53%	21
Florida International	+113	47%	27

Spread: Jacksonville State −1.5
Projected margin: Jacksonville State by 1.3

Off by7.3

Sat, Nov 22Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Southern Miss	+187	35%	35
South Alabama	−187	65%	42

Spread: South Alabama −6.5
Projected margin: South Alabama by 6.6

Off by0.4

Sat, Nov 22Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
East Carolina	−121	55%	24
UTSA	+121	45%	58

Spread: East Carolina −2
Projected margin: East Carolina by 2.0

Off by36.0

Sat, Nov 22Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Tulane	−278	74%	37
Temple	+278	26%	13

Spread: Tulane −11
Projected margin: Tulane by 10.8

Off by13.2

Sat, Nov 22Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Michigan	−320	76%	45
Maryland	+320	24%	20

Spread: Michigan −12
Projected margin: Michigan by 12.2

Off by12.8

Sat, Nov 22Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
TCU	−156	61%	17
Houston	+156	39%	14

Spread: TCU −5
Projected margin: TCU by 4.8

Off by1.8

Sat, Nov 22Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Oklahoma State	+479	17%	14
UCF	−479	83%	17

Spread: UCF −16
Projected margin: UCF by 16.1

Off by13.1

Sat, Nov 22Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Kansas State	+613	14%	47
Utah	−613	86%	51

Spread: Utah −18.5
Projected margin: Utah by 18.5

Off by14.5

Sat, Nov 22Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Georgia State	+447	18%	19
Troy	−447	82%	31

Spread: Troy −15.5
Projected margin: Troy by 15.5

Off by3.5

Sat, Nov 22Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Coastal Carolina	+1770	5%	7
South Carolina	−1770	95%	51

Spread: South Carolina −27.5
Projected margin: South Carolina by 27.6

Off by16.4

Sat, Nov 22Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Furman	+26741	0%	10
Clemson	−26741	100%	45

Spread: Clemson −46
Projected margin: Clemson by 45.8

Off by10.8

Sat, Nov 22Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
UL Monroe	+786	11%	14
Texas State	−786	89%	31

Spread: Texas State −20.5
Projected margin: Texas State by 20.7

Off by3.7

Sat, Nov 22Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Nebraska	+309	24%	10
Penn State	−309	76%	37

Spread: Penn State −12
Projected margin: Penn State by 11.8

Off by15.2

Sat, Nov 22Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Pittsburgh	+110	48%	42
Georgia Tech	−110	52%	28

Spread: Georgia Tech −1
Projected margin: Georgia Tech by 1.0

Off by15.0

Sat, Nov 22Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
New Mexico	−130	57%	20
Air Force	+130	43%	3

Spread: New Mexico −3
Projected margin: New Mexico by 2.8

Off by14.2

Sat, Nov 22Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Colorado State	+836	11%	21
Boise State	−836	89%	49

Spread: Boise State −21.5
Projected margin: Boise State by 21.3

Off by6.7

Sat, Nov 22Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Tennessee	−168	63%	31
Florida	+168	37%	11

Spread: Tennessee −5.5
Projected margin: Tennessee by 5.5

Off by14.5

Sat, Nov 22Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Illinois	−212	68%	10
Wisconsin	+212	32%	27

Spread: Illinois −8
Projected margin: Illinois by 8.0

Off by25.0

Sat, Nov 22Toss-up

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
California	EVEN	50%	10
Stanford	EVEN	50%	31

Spread: Pick'em
Projected margin: Even

Off by21.0

Sat, Nov 22Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
North Texas	−921	90%	56
Rice	+921	10%	24

Spread: North Texas −22
Projected margin: North Texas by 22.1

Off by9.9

Sat, Nov 22Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Western Kentucky	+999	9%	10
LSU	−999	91%	13

Spread: LSU −23
Projected margin: LSU by 22.8

Off by19.8

Sat, Nov 22Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
BYU	−285	74%	26
Cincinnati	+285	26%	14

Spread: BYU −11
Projected margin: BYU by 11.0

Off by1.0

Sat, Nov 22Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Arizona State	−120	55%	42
Colorado	+120	45%	17

Spread: Arizona State −2
Projected margin: Arizona State by 2.0

Off by23.0

Sat, Nov 22Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Washington	−432	81%	48
UCLA	+432	19%	14

Spread: Washington −15
Projected margin: Washington by 15.1

Off by18.9

Sat, Nov 22Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Utah State	+121	45%	28
Fresno State	−121	55%	17

Spread: Fresno State −2
Projected margin: Fresno State by 2.0

Off by13.0

Sat, Nov 22Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
San José State	+359	22%	3
San Diego State	−359	78%	25

Spread: San Diego State −13.5
Projected margin: San Diego State by 13.3

Off by8.7

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