Archive

A history of our predictions. A model is only worth what its predictions are, so all of ours are made public after games end.

Were the model's chances right?

Every game is sorted by the chance that the Field Theory model gave each team to win. Each bar shows the amount of teams in that prediction range that actually won. When the model's chances are honest, the bar boundary ends up inside the shaded band.

How often the model's favorites won, by the chance it gave them
Model's chance for the favorite	Favorites won	Underdogs won
90% to 100% (underdog 0% to 10%)	96%	4%
80% to 90% (underdog 10% to 20%)	82%	18%
70% to 80% (underdog 20% to 30%)	76%	24%
60% to 70% (underdog 30% to 40%)	63%	37%
50% to 60% (underdog 40% to 50%)	50%	50%

76%Winners picked1148 of 1508 games, not including toss-ups

12.7Average missPoints between projected and final margin among FBS matchups

1522GamesFinal with a pregame prediction, all seasons

Click here to see Field Theory's advanced statistics.

Week 11

34 of 52 winners picked (65%) · average miss 11.4 pts

Tue, Nov 4Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Massachusetts	+404	20%	10
Akron	−404	80%	44

Spread: Akron −14.5
Projected margin: Akron by 14.5

Off by19.5

Tue, Nov 4Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Miami (OH)	+213	32%	20
Ohio	−213	68%	24

Spread: Ohio −8
Projected margin: Ohio by 8.0

Off by4.0

Wed, Nov 5Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Kent State	+240	29%	13
Ball State	−240	71%	17

Spread: Ball State −9.5
Projected margin: Ball State by 9.3

Off by5.3

Wed, Nov 5Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Northern Illinois	+485	17%	3
Toledo	−485	83%	42

Spread: Toledo −16.5
Projected margin: Toledo by 16.3

Off by22.7

Thu, Nov 6Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Georgia Southern	−122	55%	25
App State	+122	45%	23

Spread: Georgia Southern −2
Projected margin: Georgia Southern by 2.1

Off by0.1

Thu, Nov 6Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
UTSA	+216	32%	23
South Florida	−216	68%	55

Spread: South Florida −8
Projected margin: South Florida by 8.2

Off by23.8

Fri, Nov 7Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Houston	+128	44%	30
UCF	−128	56%	27

Spread: UCF −2.5
Projected margin: UCF by 2.6

Off by5.6

Fri, Nov 7Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Northwestern	+921	10%	17
USC	−921	90%	38

Spread: USC −22
Projected margin: USC by 22.1

Off by1.1

Fri, Nov 7Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Tulane	+133	43%	38
Memphis	−133	57%	32

Spread: Memphis −3
Projected margin: Memphis by 3.0

Off by9.0

Sat, Nov 8Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Georgia	−329	77%	41
Mississippi State	+329	23%	21

Spread: Georgia −12.5
Projected margin: Georgia by 12.4

Off by7.6

Sat, Nov 8Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Indiana	−610	86%	27
Penn State	+610	14%	24

Spread: Indiana −18.5
Projected margin: Indiana by 18.4

Off by15.4

Sat, Nov 8Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
SMU	−401	80%	45
Boston College	+401	20%	13

Spread: SMU −14.5
Projected margin: SMU by 14.4

Off by17.6

Sat, Nov 8Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
BYU	−110	52%	7
Texas Tech	+110	48%	29

Spread: BYU −1
Projected margin: BYU by 1.1

Off by23.1

Sat, Nov 8Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Colorado	−157	61%	22
West Virginia	+157	39%	29

Spread: Colorado −5
Projected margin: Colorado by 4.8

Off by11.8

Sat, Nov 8Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
James Madison	−245	71%	35
Marshall	+245	29%	23

Spread: James Madison −9.5
Projected margin: James Madison by 9.5

Off by2.5

Sat, Nov 8Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Southern Miss	+116	46%	27
Arkansas State	−116	54%	21

Spread: Arkansas State −1.5
Projected margin: Arkansas State by 1.6

Off by7.6

Sat, Nov 8Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Temple	+396	20%	13
Army	−396	80%	14

Spread: Army −14.5
Projected margin: Army by 14.3

Off by13.3

Sat, Nov 8Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
The Citadel	+99900	0%	0
Ole Miss	−99900	100%	49

Spread: Ole Miss −53.5
Projected margin: Ole Miss by 53.7

Off by4.7

Sat, Nov 8Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Ohio State	−5021	98%	34
Purdue	+5021	2%	10

Spread: Ohio State −35.5
Projected margin: Ohio State by 35.3

Off by11.3

Sat, Nov 8Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Missouri State	+132	43%	21
Liberty	−132	57%	17

Spread: Liberty −3
Projected margin: Liberty by 3.0

Off by7.0

Sat, Nov 8Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Bowling Green	−151	60%	21
Eastern Michigan	+151	40%	27

Spread: Bowling Green −4.5
Projected margin: Bowling Green by 4.4

Off by10.4

Sat, Nov 8Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
UAB	+180	36%	17
Rice	−180	64%	24

Spread: Rice −6
Projected margin: Rice by 6.2

Off by0.8

Sat, Nov 8Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Maryland	+128	44%	20
Rutgers	−128	56%	35

Spread: Rutgers −2.5
Projected margin: Rutgers by 2.7

Off by12.3

Sat, Nov 8Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Louisiana Tech	−172	63%	24
Delaware	+172	37%	25

Spread: Louisiana Tech −6
Projected margin: Louisiana Tech by 5.8

Off by6.8

Sat, Nov 8Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Florida International	−157	61%	56
Middle Tennessee	+157	39%	30

Spread: Florida International −5
Projected margin: Florida International by 4.8

Off by21.2

Sat, Nov 8Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Jacksonville State	−170	63%	30
UTEP	+170	37%	27

Spread: Jacksonville State −5.5
Projected margin: Jacksonville State by 5.6

Off by2.6

Sat, Nov 8Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Charlotte	+1749	5%	22
East Carolina	−1749	95%	48

Spread: East Carolina −27.5
Projected margin: East Carolina by 27.5

Off by1.5

Sat, Nov 8Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Tulsa	+169	37%	21
Florida Atlantic	−169	63%	40

Spread: Florida Atlantic −5.5
Projected margin: Florida Atlantic by 5.6

Off by13.4

Sat, Nov 8Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Texas A&M	−133	57%	38
Missouri	+133	43%	17

Spread: Texas A&M −3
Projected margin: Texas A&M by 3.0

Off by18.0

Sat, Nov 8Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Oregon	−250	71%	18
Iowa	+250	29%	16

Spread: Oregon −9.5
Projected margin: Oregon by 9.7

Off by7.7

Sat, Nov 8Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Syracuse	+2798	3%	10
Miami	−2798	97%	38

Spread: Miami −31
Projected margin: Miami by 31.1

Off by3.1

Sat, Nov 8Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Duke	−174	64%	34
UConn	+174	36%	37

Spread: Duke −6
Projected margin: Duke by 5.9

Off by8.9

Sat, Nov 8Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Kansas	+178	36%	20
Arizona	−178	64%	24

Spread: Arizona −6
Projected margin: Arizona by 6.1

Off by2.1

Sat, Nov 8Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Iowa State	+125	44%	20
TCU	−125	56%	17

Spread: TCU −2.5
Projected margin: TCU by 2.4

Off by5.4

Sat, Nov 8Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Auburn	+263	28%	38
Vanderbilt	−263	72%	45

Spread: Vanderbilt −10
Projected margin: Vanderbilt by 10.2

Off by3.2

Sat, Nov 8Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Kennesaw State	−115	53%	24
New Mexico State	+115	47%	21

Spread: Kennesaw State −1.5
Projected margin: Kennesaw State by 1.5

Off by1.5

Sat, Nov 8Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Georgia State	+365	22%	27
Coastal Carolina	−365	78%	40

Spread: Coastal Carolina −13.5
Projected margin: Coastal Carolina by 13.5

Off by0.5

Sat, Nov 8Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Washington	−415	81%	10
Wisconsin	+415	19%	13

Spread: Washington −14.5
Projected margin: Washington by 14.7

Off by17.7

Sat, Nov 8Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Stanford	+164	38%	15
North Carolina	−164	62%	20

Spread: North Carolina −5.5
Projected margin: North Carolina by 5.3

Off by0.3

Sat, Nov 8Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Texas State	−150	60%	39
Louisiana	+150	40%	42

Spread: Texas State −4.5
Projected margin: Texas State by 4.3

Off by7.3

Sat, Nov 8Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Air Force	+152	40%	26
San José State	−152	60%	16

Spread: San José State −4.5
Projected margin: San José State by 4.5

Off by14.5

Sat, Nov 8Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
California	+731	12%	29
Louisville	−731	88%	26

Spread: Louisville −20
Projected margin: Louisville by 20.1

Off by23.1

Sat, Nov 8Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Florida State	+121	45%	10
Clemson	−121	55%	24

Spread: Clemson −2
Projected margin: Clemson by 2.0

Off by12.0

Sat, Nov 8Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Wake Forest	+286	26%	16
Virginia	−286	74%	9

Spread: Virginia −11
Projected margin: Virginia by 11.1

Off by18.1

Sat, Nov 8Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
LSU	+408	20%	9
Alabama	−408	80%	20

Spread: Alabama −14.5
Projected margin: Alabama by 14.6

Off by3.6

Sat, Nov 8Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Florida	−143	59%	7
Kentucky	+143	41%	38

Spread: Florida −4
Projected margin: Florida by 3.8

Off by34.8

Sat, Nov 8Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Navy	+1715	6%	10
Notre Dame	−1715	94%	49

Spread: Notre Dame −27.5
Projected margin: Notre Dame by 27.3

Off by11.7

Sat, Nov 8Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Nevada	+324	24%	14
Utah State	−324	76%	51

Spread: Utah State −12.5
Projected margin: Utah State by 12.3

Off by24.7

Sat, Nov 8Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Nebraska	−206	67%	28
UCLA	+206	33%	21

Spread: Nebraska −7.5
Projected margin: Nebraska by 7.7

Off by0.7

Sat, Nov 8Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
UNLV	−210	68%	42
Colorado State	+210	32%	10

Spread: UNLV −8
Projected margin: UNLV by 7.9

Off by24.1

Sat, Nov 8Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Sam Houston	+440	19%	21
Oregon State	−440	81%	17

Spread: Oregon State −15.5
Projected margin: Oregon State by 15.3

Off by19.3

Sat, Nov 8Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
San Diego State	−219	69%	6
Hawai'i	+219	31%	38

Spread: San Diego State −8.5
Projected margin: San Diego State by 8.3

Off by40.3

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