Tue, Nov 3Correct pick
| Team | Fair moneyline | Win | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ohio | −314 | 76% | 28 |
| Akron | +314 | 24% | 20 |
- Spread
- Ohio −12
- Projected margin
- Ohio by 11.8
Off by3.8
Archive
A history of our predictions. A model is only worth what its predictions are, so all of ours are made public after games end.
Were the model's chances right?
Every game is sorted by the chance that the Field Theory model gave each team to win. Each bar shows the amount of teams in that prediction range that actually won. When the model's chances are honest, the bar boundary ends up inside the shaded band.
| Model's chance for the favorite | Favorites won | Underdogs won |
|---|---|---|
| 90% to 100% (underdog 0% to 10%) | 96% | 4% |
| 80% to 90% (underdog 10% to 20%) | 82% | 18% |
| 70% to 80% (underdog 20% to 30%) | 76% | 24% |
| 60% to 70% (underdog 30% to 40%) | 63% | 37% |
| 50% to 60% (underdog 40% to 50%) | 50% | 50% |
76%Winners picked
12.7Average miss
1522Games
Click here to see Field Theory's advanced statistics.
Week 10
Tue, Nov 3Missed
| Team | Fair moneyline | Win | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
| Buffalo | +283 | 26% | 34 |
| Miami (OH) | −283 | 74% | 31 |
- Spread
- Miami (OH) −11
- Projected margin
- Miami (OH) by 10.8
Off by13.8
Wed, Nov 4Correct pick
| Team | Fair moneyline | Win | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ball State | +303 | 25% | 30 |
| Massachusetts | −303 | 75% | 31 |
- Spread
- Massachusetts −11.5
- Projected margin
- Massachusetts by 11.5
Off by10.5
Wed, Nov 4Correct pick
| Team | Fair moneyline | Win | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
| Toledo | −2492 | 96% | 20 |
| Sacramento State | +2492 | 4% | 17 |
- Spread
- Toledo −30
- Projected margin
- Toledo by 29.8
Off by26.8
Wed, Nov 4 · Neutral siteMissed
| Team | Fair moneyline | Win | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
| Central Michigan | +141 | 41% | 35 |
| Eastern Michigan | −141 | 59% | 7 |
- Spread
- Eastern Michigan −3.5
- Projected margin
- Eastern Michigan by 3.6
Off by31.6
Thu, Nov 5Missed
| Team | Fair moneyline | Win | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
| UTSA | −174 | 63% | 29 |
| Florida Atlantic | +174 | 37% | 60 |
- Spread
- UTSA −6
- Projected margin
- UTSA by 5.8
Off by36.8
Thu, Nov 5Correct pick
| Team | Fair moneyline | Win | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
| James Madison | −240 | 71% | 54 |
| Southern Miss | +240 | 29% | 23 |
- Spread
- James Madison −9
- Projected margin
- James Madison by 9.1
Off by21.9
Fri, Nov 6Correct pick
| Team | Fair moneyline | Win | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
| Virginia Tech | +235 | 30% | 28 |
| SMU | −235 | 70% | 51 |
- Spread
- SMU −9
- Projected margin
- SMU by 8.9
Off by14.1
Fri, Nov 6Missed
| Team | Fair moneyline | Win | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
| South Florida | −154 | 61% | 17 |
| East Carolina | +154 | 39% | 20 |
- Spread
- South Florida −4.5
- Projected margin
- South Florida by 4.5
Off by7.5
Fri, Nov 6Missed
| Team | Fair moneyline | Win | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nebraska | −189 | 65% | 13 |
| Illinois | +189 | 35% | 24 |
- Spread
- Nebraska −6.5
- Projected margin
- Nebraska by 6.7
Off by17.7
Fri, Nov 6Correct pick
| Team | Fair moneyline | Win | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
| New Mexico | −233 | 70% | 31 |
| Nevada | +233 | 30% | 3 |
- Spread
- New Mexico −9
- Projected margin
- New Mexico by 8.8
Off by19.2
Fri, Nov 6Correct pick
| Team | Fair moneyline | Win | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
| TCU | +481 | 17% | 28 |
| Arizona | −481 | 83% | 29 |
- Spread
- Arizona −16
- Projected margin
- Arizona by 16.0
Off by15.0