Archive

A history of our predictions. A model is only worth what its predictions are, so all of ours are made public after games end.

Were the model's chances right?

Every game is sorted by the chance that the Field Theory model gave each team to win. Each bar shows the amount of teams in that prediction range that actually won. When the model's chances are honest, the bar boundary ends up inside the shaded band.

How often the model's favorites won, by the chance it gave them
Model's chance for the favorite	Favorites won	Underdogs won
90% to 100% (underdog 0% to 10%)	96%	4%
80% to 90% (underdog 10% to 20%)	82%	18%
70% to 80% (underdog 20% to 30%)	76%	24%
60% to 70% (underdog 30% to 40%)	63%	37%
50% to 60% (underdog 40% to 50%)	50%	50%

76%Winners picked1148 of 1508 games, not including toss-ups

12.7Average missPoints between projected and final margin among FBS matchups

1522GamesFinal with a pregame prediction, all seasons

Click here to see Field Theory's advanced statistics.

Week 6

36 of 51 winners picked (71%) · average miss 12.1 pts

Thu, Oct 2Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Sam Houston	−188	65%	10
New Mexico State	+188	35%	37

Spread: Sam Houston −6.5
Projected margin: Sam Houston by 6.7

Off by33.7

Fri, Oct 3Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Western Kentucky	−120	54%	27
Delaware	+120	46%	24

Spread: Western Kentucky −2
Projected margin: Western Kentucky by 1.9

Off by1.1

Fri, Oct 3Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Charlotte	+1478	6%	26
South Florida	−1478	94%	54

Spread: South Florida −26
Projected margin: South Florida by 26.1

Off by1.9

Fri, Oct 3Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
New Mexico	−132	57%	28
San José State	+132	43%	35

Spread: New Mexico −3
Projected margin: New Mexico by 3.0

Off by10.0

Fri, Oct 3Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
West Virginia	+1680	6%	24
BYU	−1680	94%	38

Spread: BYU −27
Projected margin: BYU by 27.1

Off by13.1

Fri, Oct 3Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Colorado State	+253	28%	24
San Diego State	−253	72%	45

Spread: San Diego State −10
Projected margin: San Diego State by 9.8

Off by11.2

Sat, Oct 4Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Kentucky	+565	15%	14
Georgia	−565	85%	35

Spread: Georgia −17.5
Projected margin: Georgia by 17.7

Off by3.3

Sat, Oct 4Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Wisconsin	+444	18%	10
Michigan	−444	82%	24

Spread: Michigan −15.5
Projected margin: Michigan by 15.4

Off by1.4

Sat, Oct 4Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Illinois	−558	85%	43
Purdue	+558	15%	27

Spread: Illinois −17.5
Projected margin: Illinois by 17.6

Off by1.6

Sat, Oct 4Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Boston College	+188	35%	7
Pittsburgh	−188	65%	48

Spread: Pittsburgh −6.5
Projected margin: Pittsburgh by 6.7

Off by34.3

Sat, Oct 4Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Clemson	−202	67%	38
North Carolina	+202	33%	10

Spread: Clemson −7.5
Projected margin: Clemson by 7.5

Off by20.5

Sat, Oct 4Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Kansas State	+123	45%	34
Baylor	−123	55%	35

Spread: Baylor −2
Projected margin: Baylor by 2.2

Off by1.2

Sat, Oct 4Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Iowa State	−321	76%	30
Cincinnati	+321	24%	38

Spread: Iowa State −12
Projected margin: Iowa State by 12.2

Off by20.2

Sat, Oct 4Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Air Force	+786	11%	31
Navy	−786	89%	34

Spread: Navy −20.5
Projected margin: Navy by 20.7

Off by17.7

Sat, Oct 4Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Army	−554	85%	31
UAB	+554	15%	13

Spread: Army −17.5
Projected margin: Army by 17.5

Off by0.5

Sat, Oct 4Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Ohio	−709	88%	14
Ball State	+709	12%	20

Spread: Ohio −20
Projected margin: Ohio by 19.8

Off by25.8

Sat, Oct 4Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Wake Forest	+260	28%	30
Virginia Tech	−260	72%	23

Spread: Virginia Tech −10
Projected margin: Virginia Tech by 10.1

Off by17.1

Sat, Oct 4Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
UTSA	−138	58%	21
Temple	+138	42%	27

Spread: UTSA −3.5
Projected margin: UTSA by 3.4

Off by9.4

Sat, Oct 4Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Campbell	+10076	1%	10
NC State	−10076	99%	56

Spread: NC State −40
Projected margin: NC State by 39.9

Off by6.1

Sat, Oct 4Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Western Michigan	−404	80%	21
Massachusetts	+404	20%	3

Spread: Western Michigan −14.5
Projected margin: Western Michigan by 14.5

Off by3.5

Sat, Oct 4Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Oklahoma State	+685	13%	13
Arizona	−685	87%	41

Spread: Arizona −19.5
Projected margin: Arizona by 19.5

Off by8.5

Sat, Oct 4Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Vanderbilt	+178	36%	14
Alabama	−178	64%	30

Spread: Alabama −6
Projected margin: Alabama by 6.1

Off by9.9

Sat, Oct 4Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Texas	−217	68%	21
Florida	+217	32%	29

Spread: Texas −8
Projected margin: Texas by 8.2

Off by16.2

Sat, Oct 4Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Penn State	−2092	95%	37
UCLA	+2092	5%	42

Spread: Penn State −29
Projected margin: Penn State by 28.9

Off by33.9

Sat, Oct 4Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Washington	−326	76%	24
Maryland	+326	24%	20

Spread: Washington −12.5
Projected margin: Washington by 12.4

Off by8.4

Sat, Oct 4Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
UL Monroe	+310	24%	7
Northwestern	−310	76%	42

Spread: Northwestern −12
Projected margin: Northwestern by 11.9

Off by23.1

Sat, Oct 4Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Oregon State	−161	62%	23
App State	+161	38%	27

Spread: Oregon State −5
Projected margin: Oregon State by 5.1

Off by9.1

Sat, Oct 4Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Virginia	+252	28%	30
Louisville	−252	72%	27

Spread: Louisville −9.5
Projected margin: Louisville by 9.7

Off by12.7

Sat, Oct 4Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Syracuse	+359	22%	18
SMU	−359	78%	31

Spread: SMU −13.5
Projected margin: SMU by 13.3

Off by0.3

Sat, Oct 4Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Boise State	+2093	5%	7
Notre Dame	−2093	95%	28

Spread: Notre Dame −29
Projected margin: Notre Dame by 28.9

Off by7.9

Sat, Oct 4Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Florida International	+345	22%	10
UConn	−345	78%	51

Spread: UConn −13
Projected margin: UConn by 12.9

Off by28.1

Sat, Oct 4Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
James Madison	−778	89%	14
Georgia State	+778	11%	7

Spread: James Madison −20.5
Projected margin: James Madison by 20.6

Off by13.6

Sat, Oct 4Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Central Michigan	−108	52%	22
Akron	+108	48%	28

Spread: Central Michigan −1
Projected margin: Central Michigan by 0.9

Off by6.9

Sat, Oct 4Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Eastern Michigan	+279	26%	30
Buffalo	−279	74%	31

Spread: Buffalo −11
Projected margin: Buffalo by 10.8

Off by9.8

Sat, Oct 4Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Miami (OH)	+104	49%	25
Northern Illinois	−104	51%	14

Spread: Northern Illinois −0.5
Projected margin: Northern Illinois by 0.4

Off by11.4

Sat, Oct 4Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Kent State	+99900	0%	0
Oklahoma	−99900	100%	44

Spread: Oklahoma −53.5
Projected margin: Oklahoma by 53.6

Off by9.6

Sat, Oct 4Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Michigan State	+371	21%	27
Nebraska	−371	79%	38

Spread: Nebraska −13.5
Projected margin: Nebraska by 13.7

Off by2.7

Sat, Oct 4Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Texas State	−743	88%	30
Arkansas State	+743	12%	31

Spread: Texas State −20
Projected margin: Texas State by 20.2

Off by21.2

Sat, Oct 4Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Coastal Carolina	+960	9%	7
Old Dominion	−960	91%	47

Spread: Old Dominion −22.5
Projected margin: Old Dominion by 22.5

Off by17.5

Sat, Oct 4Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Texas Tech	−135	58%	35
Houston	+135	42%	11

Spread: Texas Tech −3
Projected margin: Texas Tech by 3.2

Off by20.8

Sat, Oct 4Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
UNLV	−226	69%	31
Wyoming	+226	31%	17

Spread: UNLV −8.5
Projected margin: UNLV by 8.7

Off by5.3

Sat, Oct 4Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
South Alabama	+103	49%	24
Troy	−103	51%	31

Spread: Troy −0.5
Projected margin: Troy by 0.3

Off by6.7

Sat, Oct 4Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Florida Atlantic	+185	35%	27
Rice	−185	65%	21

Spread: Rice −6.5
Projected margin: Rice by 6.6

Off by12.6

Sat, Oct 4Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Mississippi State	+594	14%	9
Texas A&M	−594	86%	31

Spread: Texas A&M −18
Projected margin: Texas A&M by 18.2

Off by3.8

Sat, Oct 4Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Minnesota	+2131	4%	3
Ohio State	−2131	96%	42

Spread: Ohio State −29
Projected margin: Ohio State by 29.0

Off by10.0

Sat, Oct 4Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Miami	−488	83%	28
Florida State	+488	17%	22

Spread: Miami −16.5
Projected margin: Miami by 16.3

Off by10.3

Sat, Oct 4Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Colorado	+247	29%	21
TCU	−247	71%	35

Spread: TCU −9.5
Projected margin: TCU by 9.6

Off by4.4

Sat, Oct 4Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Kansas	+117	46%	27
UCF	−117	54%	20

Spread: UCF −1.5
Projected margin: UCF by 1.6

Off by8.6

Sat, Oct 4Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Tulsa	+1127	8%	7
Memphis	−1127	92%	45

Spread: Memphis −24
Projected margin: Memphis by 23.8

Off by14.2

Sat, Oct 4Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Duke	−210	68%	45
California	+210	32%	21

Spread: Duke −8
Projected margin: Duke by 7.9

Off by16.1

Sat, Oct 4Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Nevada	+430	19%	17
Fresno State	−430	81%	20

Spread: Fresno State −15
Projected margin: Fresno State by 15.1

Off by12.1

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