Archive

A history of our predictions. A model is only worth what its predictions are, so all of ours are made public after games end.

Were the model's chances right?

Every game is sorted by the chance that the Field Theory model gave each team to win. Each bar shows the amount of teams in that prediction range that actually won. When the model's chances are honest, the bar boundary ends up inside the shaded band.

How often the model's favorites won, by the chance it gave them
Model's chance for the favorite	Favorites won	Underdogs won
90% to 100% (underdog 0% to 10%)	96%	4%
80% to 90% (underdog 10% to 20%)	82%	18%
70% to 80% (underdog 20% to 30%)	76%	24%
60% to 70% (underdog 30% to 40%)	63%	37%
50% to 60% (underdog 40% to 50%)	50%	50%

76%Winners picked1148 of 1508 games, not including toss-ups

12.7Average missPoints between projected and final margin among FBS matchups

1522GamesFinal with a pregame prediction, all seasons

Click here to see Field Theory's advanced statistics.

Week 10

33 of 52 winners picked (63%) · average miss 13.9 pts

Tue, Oct 28Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
UTEP	+154	39%	20
Kennesaw State	−154	61%	33

Spread: Kennesaw State −4.5
Projected margin: Kennesaw State by 4.6

Off by8.4

Tue, Oct 28Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
James Madison	−121	55%	52
Texas State	+121	45%	20

Spread: James Madison −2
Projected margin: James Madison by 2.0

Off by30.0

Wed, Oct 29Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Jacksonville State	−332	77%	24
Middle Tennessee	+332	23%	21

Spread: Jacksonville State −12.5
Projected margin: Jacksonville State by 12.6

Off by9.6

Wed, Oct 29Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Florida International	+181	36%	21
Missouri State	−181	64%	28

Spread: Missouri State −6.5
Projected margin: Missouri State by 6.3

Off by0.7

Thu, Oct 30Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Marshall	−209	68%	27
Coastal Carolina	+209	32%	44

Spread: Marshall −8
Projected margin: Marshall by 7.8

Off by24.8

Thu, Oct 30Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Tulane	−183	65%	26
UTSA	+183	35%	48

Spread: Tulane −6.5
Projected margin: Tulane by 6.4

Off by28.4

Fri, Oct 31Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Memphis	−543	84%	38
Rice	+543	16%	14

Spread: Memphis −17.5
Projected margin: Memphis by 17.3

Off by6.7

Fri, Oct 31Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
North Carolina	+180	36%	27
Syracuse	−180	64%	10

Spread: Syracuse −6.5
Projected margin: Syracuse by 6.3

Off by23.3

Fri, Oct 31Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Sam Houston	+362	22%	14
Louisiana Tech	−362	78%	55

Spread: Louisiana Tech −13.5
Projected margin: Louisiana Tech by 13.4

Off by27.6

Sat, Nov 1Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Vanderbilt	+146	41%	31
Texas	−146	59%	34

Spread: Texas −4
Projected margin: Texas by 4.0

Off by1.0

Sat, Nov 1Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Penn State	+580	15%	14
Ohio State	−580	85%	38

Spread: Ohio State −18
Projected margin: Ohio State by 17.9

Off by6.1

Sat, Nov 1Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Rutgers	+296	25%	13
Illinois	−296	75%	35

Spread: Illinois −11.5
Projected margin: Illinois by 11.4

Off by10.6

Sat, Nov 1Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Duke	+157	39%	46
Clemson	−157	61%	45

Spread: Clemson −5
Projected margin: Clemson by 4.8

Off by5.8

Sat, Nov 1Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Miami	−386	79%	20
SMU	+386	21%	26

Spread: Miami −14
Projected margin: Miami by 14.0

Off by20.0

Sat, Nov 1Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
UCF	+135	43%	3
Baylor	−135	57%	30

Spread: Baylor −3
Projected margin: Baylor by 3.2

Off by23.8

Sat, Nov 1Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
West Virginia	+325	24%	45
Houston	−325	76%	35

Spread: Houston −12.5
Projected margin: Houston by 12.3

Off by22.3

Sat, Nov 1Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
UAB	+416	19%	19
UConn	−416	81%	38

Spread: UConn −15
Projected margin: UConn by 14.8

Off by4.2

Sat, Nov 1Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Army	−250	71%	20
Air Force	+250	29%	17

Spread: Army −9.5
Projected margin: Army by 9.7

Off by6.7

Sat, Nov 1Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Navy	+188	35%	17
North Texas	−188	65%	31

Spread: North Texas −6.5
Projected margin: North Texas by 6.7

Off by7.3

Sat, Nov 1Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Buffalo	+193	34%	28
Bowling Green	−193	66%	3

Spread: Bowling Green −7
Projected margin: Bowling Green by 7.0

Off by32.0

Sat, Nov 1Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Arizona State	+248	29%	24
Iowa State	−248	71%	19

Spread: Iowa State −9.5
Projected margin: Iowa State by 9.6

Off by14.6

Sat, Nov 1Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
East Carolina	−180	64%	45
Temple	+180	36%	14

Spread: East Carolina −6.5
Projected margin: East Carolina by 6.3

Off by24.7

Sat, Nov 1Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Louisville	−265	73%	28
Virginia Tech	+265	27%	16

Spread: Louisville −10.5
Projected margin: Louisville by 10.3

Off by1.7

Sat, Nov 1Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
New Mexico	+143	41%	40
UNLV	−143	59%	35

Spread: UNLV −4
Projected margin: UNLV by 3.8

Off by8.8

Sat, Nov 1 · Neutral siteCorrect pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Georgia	−218	69%	24
Florida	+218	31%	20

Spread: Georgia −8.5
Projected margin: Georgia by 8.3

Off by4.3

Sat, Nov 1Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Indiana	−3897	97%	55
Maryland	+3897	3%	10

Spread: Indiana −33.5
Projected margin: Indiana by 33.5

Off by11.5

Sat, Nov 1Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Michigan State	+184	35%	20
Minnesota	−184	65%	23

Spread: Minnesota −6.5
Projected margin: Minnesota by 6.5

Off by3.5

Sat, Nov 1Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Pittsburgh	−333	77%	35
Stanford	+333	23%	20

Spread: Pittsburgh −12.5
Projected margin: Pittsburgh by 12.6

Off by2.4

Sat, Nov 1Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Notre Dame	−3773	97%	25
Boston College	+3773	3%	10

Spread: Notre Dame −33.5
Projected margin: Notre Dame by 33.3

Off by18.3

Sat, Nov 1Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Texas Tech	+105	49%	43
Kansas State	−105	51%	20

Spread: Kansas State −0.5
Projected margin: Kansas State by 0.5

Off by23.5

Sat, Nov 1Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Delaware	+109	48%	30
Liberty	−109	52%	59

Spread: Liberty −1
Projected margin: Liberty by 1.0

Off by28.0

Sat, Nov 1Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
New Mexico State	+405	20%	16
Western Kentucky	−405	80%	35

Spread: Western Kentucky −14.5
Projected margin: Western Kentucky by 14.5

Off by4.5

Sat, Nov 1Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Fresno State	+990	9%	30
Boise State	−990	91%	7

Spread: Boise State −22.5
Projected margin: Boise State by 22.7

Off by45.7

Sat, Nov 1Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Old Dominion	−647	87%	31
UL Monroe	+647	13%	6

Spread: Old Dominion −19
Projected margin: Old Dominion by 18.9

Off by6.1

Sat, Nov 1Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Louisiana	+144	41%	31
South Alabama	−144	59%	22

Spread: South Alabama −4
Projected margin: South Alabama by 3.9

Off by12.9

Sat, Nov 1Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Virginia	−212	68%	31
California	+212	32%	21

Spread: Virginia −8
Projected margin: Virginia by 8.0

Off by2.0

Sat, Nov 1Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Mississippi State	+173	37%	38
Arkansas	−173	63%	35

Spread: Arkansas −6
Projected margin: Arkansas by 5.8

Off by8.8

Sat, Nov 1Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Oklahoma State	+652	13%	21
Kansas	−652	87%	38

Spread: Kansas −19
Projected margin: Kansas by 19.0

Off by2.0

Sat, Nov 1Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Central Michigan	+245	29%	21
Western Michigan	−245	71%	24

Spread: Western Michigan −9.5
Projected margin: Western Michigan by 9.5

Off by6.5

Sat, Nov 1Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
South Carolina	+445	18%	14
Ole Miss	−445	82%	30

Spread: Ole Miss −15.5
Projected margin: Ole Miss by 15.4

Off by0.6

Sat, Nov 1Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Purdue	+1144	8%	16
Michigan	−1144	92%	21

Spread: Michigan −24
Projected margin: Michigan by 24.0

Off by19.0

Sat, Nov 1Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Arizona	+153	40%	52
Colorado	−153	60%	17

Spread: Colorado −4.5
Projected margin: Colorado by 4.5

Off by39.5

Sat, Nov 1Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Wyoming	+306	25%	7
San Diego State	−306	75%	24

Spread: San Diego State −11.5
Projected margin: San Diego State by 11.7

Off by5.3

Sat, Nov 1Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Kentucky	+318	24%	10
Auburn	−318	76%	3

Spread: Auburn −12
Projected margin: Auburn by 12.1

Off by19.1

Sat, Nov 1Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Oklahoma	+158	39%	33
Tennessee	−158	61%	27

Spread: Tennessee −5
Projected margin: Tennessee by 4.9

Off by10.9

Sat, Nov 1Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
USC	−228	69%	21
Nebraska	+228	31%	17

Spread: USC −8.5
Projected margin: USC by 8.7

Off by4.7

Sat, Nov 1Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Washington State	−260	72%	7
Oregon State	+260	28%	10

Spread: Washington State −10
Projected margin: Washington State by 10.1

Off by13.1

Sat, Nov 1Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Wake Forest	+256	28%	7
Florida State	−256	72%	42

Spread: Florida State −10
Projected margin: Florida State by 9.9

Off by25.1

Sat, Nov 1Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Georgia Tech	−132	57%	36
NC State	+132	43%	48

Spread: Georgia Tech −3
Projected margin: Georgia Tech by 3.0

Off by15.0

Sat, Nov 1Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Arkansas State	+328	23%	23
Troy	−328	77%	10

Spread: Troy −12.5
Projected margin: Troy by 12.4

Off by25.4

Sat, Nov 1Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Cincinnati	+466	18%	14
Utah	−466	82%	45

Spread: Utah −16
Projected margin: Utah by 15.9

Off by15.1

Sat, Nov 1Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Hawai'i	+176	36%	38
San José State	−176	64%	45

Spread: San José State −6
Projected margin: San José State by 6.0

Off by1.0

Our Top 25 and archived predictions are free to use and distribute.