Sat, Dec 13 · Neutral siteCorrect pick
| Team | Moneyline | Win | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
| Army | +144 | 41% | 16 |
| Navy | −144 | 59% | 17 |
- Spread
- Navy −4
- Projected margin
- Navy by 3.9
Off by2.9
Free once games are final
Archive
Every prediction becomes free when the game ends. Each game shows the model's pregame win probability, moneyline, spread, and projected margin next to the final score.
Were the model's chances right?
Every game is sorted by the chance that the Field Theory model gave each team to win. Each bar shows the amount of teams in that prediction range that actually won. When the model's chances are honest, the bar boundary ends up inside the shaded band.
| Model's chance for the favorite | Favorites won | Underdogs won |
|---|---|---|
| 90% to 100% (underdog 0% to 10%) | 97% | 3% |
| 80% to 90% (underdog 10% to 20%) | 87% | 13% |
| 70% to 80% (underdog 20% to 30%) | 77% | 23% |
| 60% to 70% (underdog 30% to 40%) | 67% | 33% |
| 50% to 60% (underdog 40% to 50%) | 52% | 48% |
79%Winners picked
12.6Average miss
1148Games