Sat, Dec 13 · Neutral siteCorrect pick
| Team | Fair moneyline | Win | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
| Army | +144 | 41% | 16 |
| Navy | −144 | 59% | 17 |
- Spread
- Navy −4
- Projected margin
- Navy by 3.9
Off by2.9
Archive
A history of our predictions. A model is only worth what its predictions are, so all of ours are made public after games end.
Were the model's chances right?
Every game is sorted by the chance that the Field Theory model gave each team to win. Each bar shows the amount of teams in that prediction range that actually won. When the model's chances are honest, the bar boundary ends up inside the shaded band.
| Model's chance for the favorite | Favorites won | Underdogs won |
|---|---|---|
| 90% to 100% (underdog 0% to 10%) | 96% | 4% |
| 80% to 90% (underdog 10% to 20%) | 82% | 18% |
| 70% to 80% (underdog 20% to 30%) | 76% | 24% |
| 60% to 70% (underdog 30% to 40%) | 63% | 37% |
| 50% to 60% (underdog 40% to 50%) | 50% | 50% |
76%Winners picked
12.7Average miss
1522Games
Click here to see Field Theory's advanced statistics.