Free once games are final

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Every prediction becomes free when the game ends. Each game shows the model's pregame win probability, moneyline, spread, and projected margin next to the final score.

Were the model's chances right?

Every game is sorted by the chance that the Field Theory model gave each team to win. Each bar shows the amount of teams in that prediction range that actually won. When the model's chances are honest, the bar boundary ends up inside the shaded band.

How often the model's favorites won, by the chance it gave them
Model's chance for the favorite	Favorites won	Underdogs won
90% to 100% (underdog 0% to 10%)	97%	3%
80% to 90% (underdog 10% to 20%)	87%	13%
70% to 80% (underdog 20% to 30%)	77%	23%
60% to 70% (underdog 30% to 40%)	67%	33%
50% to 60% (underdog 40% to 50%)	52%	48%

79%Winners picked900 of 1138 games, not including toss-ups

12.6Average missPoints between projected and final margin

1148GamesFinal with a pregame prediction, all seasons

Week 15

5 of 9 winners picked · average miss 13.0 pts

Fri, Dec 5Missed

Team	Moneyline	Win	Final
Kennesaw State	+182	35%	19
Jacksonville State	−182	65%	15

Spread: Jacksonville State −6.5
Projected margin: Jacksonville State by 6.4

Off by10.4

Fri, Dec 5Correct pick

Team	Moneyline	Win	Final
Troy	+1101	8%	14
James Madison	−1101	92%	31

Spread: James Madison −23.5
Projected margin: James Madison by 23.7

Off by6.7

Fri, Dec 5Missed

Team	Moneyline	Win	Final
North Texas	−145	59%	21
Tulane	+145	41%	34

Spread: North Texas −4
Projected margin: North Texas by 3.9

Off by16.9

Fri, Dec 5Correct pick

Team	Moneyline	Win	Final
UNLV	+175	36%	21
Boise State	−175	64%	38

Spread: Boise State −6
Projected margin: Boise State by 6.0

Off by11.0

Sat, Dec 6 · Neutral siteCorrect pick

Team	Moneyline	Win	Final
BYU	+141	41%	7
Texas Tech	−141	59%	34

Spread: Texas Tech −3.5
Projected margin: Texas Tech by 3.7

Off by23.3

Sat, Dec 6 · Neutral siteCorrect pick

Team	Moneyline	Win	Final
Miami (OH)	+120	46%	13
Western Michigan	−120	54%	23

Spread: Western Michigan −2
Projected margin: Western Michigan by 1.9

Off by8.1

Sat, Dec 6 · Neutral siteMissed

Team	Moneyline	Win	Final
Georgia	+159	39%	28
Alabama	−159	61%	7

Spread: Alabama −5
Projected margin: Alabama by 5.0

Off by26.0

Sat, Dec 6 · Neutral siteMissed

Team	Moneyline	Win	Final
Duke	+158	39%	27
Virginia	−158	61%	20

Spread: Virginia −5
Projected margin: Virginia by 4.9

Off by11.9

Sat, Dec 6 · Neutral siteCorrect pick

Team	Moneyline	Win	Final
Indiana	−106	51%	13
Ohio State	+106	49%	10

Spread: Indiana −0.5
Projected margin: Indiana by 0.6

Off by2.4

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