Archive

A history of our predictions. A model is only worth what its predictions are, so all of ours are made public after games end.

Were the model's chances right?

Every game is sorted by the chance that the Field Theory model gave each team to win. Each bar shows the amount of teams in that prediction range that actually won. When the model's chances are honest, the bar boundary ends up inside the shaded band.

How often the model's favorites won, by the chance it gave them
Model's chance for the favorite	Favorites won	Underdogs won
90% to 100% (underdog 0% to 10%)	96%	4%
80% to 90% (underdog 10% to 20%)	82%	18%
70% to 80% (underdog 20% to 30%)	76%	24%
60% to 70% (underdog 30% to 40%)	63%	37%
50% to 60% (underdog 40% to 50%)	50%	50%

76%Winners picked1148 of 1508 games, not including toss-ups

12.7Average missPoints between projected and final margin among FBS matchups

1522GamesFinal with a pregame prediction, all seasons

Click here to see Field Theory's advanced statistics.

Week 3

54 of 69 winners picked (78%) · average miss 14.4 pts

Thu, Sep 11Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
NC State	−166	62%	34
Wake Forest	+166	38%	24

Spread: NC State −5.5
Projected margin: NC State by 5.4

Off by4.6

Fri, Sep 12Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Indiana State	+99900	0%	0
Indiana	−99900	100%	73

Spread: Indiana −68
Projected margin: Indiana by 67.9

Off by5.1

Fri, Sep 12Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Colgate	+17132	1%	24
Syracuse	−17132	99%	66

Spread: Syracuse −43
Projected margin: Syracuse by 43.2

Off by1.2

Fri, Sep 12Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Colorado	−160	62%	20
Houston	+160	38%	36

Spread: Colorado −5
Projected margin: Colorado by 5.0

Off by21.0

Fri, Sep 12Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Kansas State	−112	53%	17
Arizona	+112	47%	23

Spread: Kansas State −1
Projected margin: Kansas State by 1.2

Off by7.2

Fri, Sep 12Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
New Mexico	+157	39%	35
UCLA	−157	61%	10

Spread: UCLA −5
Projected margin: UCLA by 4.8

Off by29.8

Sat, Sep 13Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Wisconsin	+432	19%	14
Alabama	−432	81%	38

Spread: Alabama −15
Projected margin: Alabama by 15.1

Off by8.9

Sat, Sep 13Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Oklahoma	−463	82%	42
Temple	+463	18%	3

Spread: Oklahoma −16
Projected margin: Oklahoma by 15.8

Off by23.2

Sat, Sep 13Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Houston Christian	+43564	0%	7
Nebraska	−43564	100%	59

Spread: Nebraska −48.5
Projected margin: Nebraska by 48.5

Off by3.5

Sat, Sep 13Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Oregon	−3364	97%	34
Northwestern	+3364	3%	14

Spread: Oregon −32.5
Projected margin: Oregon by 32.4

Off by12.4

Sat, Sep 13Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Towson	+3199	3%	17
Maryland	−3199	97%	44

Spread: Maryland −32
Projected margin: Maryland by 32.1

Off by5.1

Sat, Sep 13Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Central Michigan	+3594	3%	3
Michigan	−3594	97%	63

Spread: Michigan −33
Projected margin: Michigan by 32.9

Off by27.1

Sat, Sep 13Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
William & Mary	+3299	3%	16
Virginia	−3299	97%	55

Spread: Virginia −32.5
Projected margin: Virginia by 32.3

Off by6.7

Sat, Sep 13Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Clemson	−114	53%	21
Georgia Tech	+114	47%	24

Spread: Clemson −1.5
Projected margin: Clemson by 1.4

Off by4.4

Sat, Sep 13Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Samford	+19747	0%	7
Baylor	−19747	100%	42

Spread: Baylor −44
Projected margin: Baylor by 44.0

Off by9.0

Sat, Sep 13Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Memphis	−198	66%	28
Troy	+198	34%	7

Spread: Memphis −7.5
Projected margin: Memphis by 7.3

Off by13.7

Sat, Sep 13Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Buffalo	−1320	93%	31
Kent State	+1320	7%	28

Spread: Buffalo −25
Projected margin: Buffalo by 25.2

Off by22.2

Sat, Sep 13Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
South Alabama	+363	22%	15
Auburn	−363	78%	31

Spread: Auburn −13.5
Projected margin: Auburn by 13.4

Off by2.6

Sat, Sep 13Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Louisiana	+816	11%	10
Missouri	−816	89%	52

Spread: Missouri −21
Projected margin: Missouri by 21.0

Off by21.0

Sat, Sep 13Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
New Hampshire	−116	54%	29
Ball State	+116	46%	34

Spread: New Hampshire −1.5
Projected margin: New Hampshire by 1.6

Off by6.6

Sat, Sep 13Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
UConn	−292	74%	41
Delaware	+292	26%	44

Spread: UConn −11
Projected margin: UConn by 11.2

Off by14.2

Sat, Sep 13Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Georgia	+145	41%	44
Tennessee	−145	59%	41

Spread: Tennessee −4
Projected margin: Tennessee by 4.0

Off by7.0

Sat, Sep 13Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
USC	−1769	95%	33
Purdue	+1769	5%	17

Spread: USC −27.5
Projected margin: USC by 27.6

Off by11.6

Sat, Sep 13Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Norfolk State	+36369	0%	10
Rutgers	−36369	100%	60

Spread: Rutgers −47.5
Projected margin: Rutgers by 47.5

Off by2.5

Sat, Sep 13Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Youngstown State	+4824	2%	24
Michigan State	−4824	98%	41

Spread: Michigan State −35
Projected margin: Michigan State by 35.0

Off by18.0

Sat, Sep 13Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Villanova	+82727	0%	6
Penn State	−82727	100%	52

Spread: Penn State −52
Projected margin: Penn State by 51.9

Off by5.9

Sat, Sep 13Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Oregon State	+1072	9%	14
Texas Tech	−1072	91%	45

Spread: Texas Tech −23.5
Projected margin: Texas Tech by 23.4

Off by7.6

Sat, Sep 13Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Washington State	+149	40%	10
North Texas	−149	60%	59

Spread: North Texas −4
Projected margin: North Texas by 4.2

Off by44.8

Sat, Sep 13Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
SMU	−1347	93%	28
Missouri State	+1347	7%	10

Spread: SMU −25.5
Projected margin: SMU by 25.3

Off by7.3

Sat, Sep 13Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Pittsburgh	−139	58%	24
West Virginia	+139	42%	31

Spread: Pittsburgh −3.5
Projected margin: Pittsburgh by 3.5

Off by10.5

Sat, Sep 13Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Richmond	+933	10%	6
North Carolina	−933	90%	41

Spread: North Carolina −22
Projected margin: North Carolina by 22.2

Off by12.8

Sat, Sep 13Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Northwestern State	+99900	0%	0
Cincinnati	−99900	100%	70

Spread: Cincinnati −55
Projected margin: Cincinnati by 55.0

Off by15.0

Sat, Sep 13Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Incarnate Word	+788	11%	20
UTSA	−788	89%	48

Spread: UTSA −20.5
Projected margin: UTSA by 20.7

Off by7.3

Sat, Sep 13Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Morgan State	+1841	5%	0
Toledo	−1841	95%	60

Spread: Toledo −28
Projected margin: Toledo by 27.9

Off by32.1

Sat, Sep 13Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Iowa State	−3133	97%	24
Arkansas State	+3133	3%	16

Spread: Iowa State −32
Projected margin: Iowa State by 31.9

Off by23.9

Sat, Sep 13Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
UTEP	+17302	1%	10
Texas	−17302	99%	27

Spread: Texas −43
Projected margin: Texas by 43.2

Off by26.2

Sat, Sep 13Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
South Florida	+1975	5%	12
Miami	−1975	95%	49

Spread: Miami −28.5
Projected margin: Miami by 28.4

Off by8.6

Sat, Sep 13Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Liberty	+194	34%	13
Bowling Green	−194	66%	23

Spread: Bowling Green −7
Projected margin: Bowling Green by 7.0

Off by3.0

Sat, Sep 13Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Middle Tennessee	+692	13%	14
Nevada	−692	87%	13

Spread: Nevada −19.5
Projected margin: Nevada by 19.6

Off by20.6

Sat, Sep 13Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Alcorn State	+38731	0%	0
Mississippi State	−38731	100%	63

Spread: Mississippi State −48
Projected margin: Mississippi State by 47.8

Off by15.2

Sat, Sep 13Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Florida Atlantic	+110	48%	28
Florida International	−110	52%	38

Spread: Florida International −1
Projected margin: Florida International by 1.1

Off by8.9

Sat, Sep 13Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Merrimack	+377	21%	13
Kennesaw State	−377	79%	27

Spread: Kennesaw State −14
Projected margin: Kennesaw State by 13.8

Off by0.2

Sat, Sep 13Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Eastern Kentucky	+651	13%	7
Marshall	−651	87%	38

Spread: Marshall −19
Projected margin: Marshall by 19.0

Off by12.0

Sat, Sep 13Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Monmouth	+177	36%	35
Charlotte	−177	64%	42

Spread: Charlotte −6
Projected margin: Charlotte by 6.1

Off by0.9

Sat, Sep 13Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Arkansas	+403	20%	35
Ole Miss	−403	80%	41

Spread: Ole Miss −14.5
Projected margin: Ole Miss by 14.5

Off by8.5

Sat, Sep 13Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Ohio	+3738	3%	9
Ohio State	−3738	97%	37

Spread: Ohio State −33
Projected margin: Ohio State by 33.2

Off by5.2

Sat, Sep 13Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Western Michigan	+3851	3%	0
Illinois	−3851	97%	38

Spread: Illinois −33.5
Projected margin: Illinois by 33.4

Off by4.6

Sat, Sep 13Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Old Dominion	+122	45%	45
Virginia Tech	−122	55%	26

Spread: Virginia Tech −2
Projected margin: Virginia Tech by 2.1

Off by21.1

Sat, Sep 13Toss-up

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Jacksonville State	−101	50%	34
Georgia Southern	+101	50%	41

Spread: Pick'em
Projected margin: Jacksonville State by 0.1

Off by7.1

Sat, Sep 13Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Murray State	+2255	4%	21
Georgia State	−2255	96%	37

Spread: Georgia State −29.5
Projected margin: Georgia State by 29.5

Off by13.5

Sat, Sep 13Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
App State	−165	62%	22
Southern Miss	+165	38%	38

Spread: App State −5.5
Projected margin: App State by 5.3

Off by21.3

Sat, Sep 13Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Prairie View A&M	+5790	2%	17
Rice	−5790	98%	38

Spread: Rice −36.5
Projected margin: Rice by 36.3

Off by15.3

Sat, Sep 13Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Eastern Michigan	+3070	3%	23
Kentucky	−3070	97%	48

Spread: Kentucky −32
Projected margin: Kentucky by 31.8

Off by6.8

Sat, Sep 13Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Florida	+115	47%	10
LSU	−115	53%	20

Spread: LSU −1.5
Projected margin: LSU by 1.5

Off by8.5

Sat, Sep 13Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Texas A&M	+674	13%	41
Notre Dame	−674	87%	40

Spread: Notre Dame −19.5
Projected margin: Notre Dame by 19.3

Off by20.3

Sat, Sep 13Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Massachusetts	+24099	0%	7
Iowa	−24099	100%	47

Spread: Iowa −45
Projected margin: Iowa by 45.2

Off by5.2

Sat, Sep 13Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
New Mexico State	+499	17%	14
Louisiana Tech	−499	83%	49

Spread: Louisiana Tech −16.5
Projected margin: Louisiana Tech by 16.5

Off by18.5

Sat, Sep 13Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
East Carolina	−254	72%	38
Coastal Carolina	+254	28%	0

Spread: East Carolina −10
Projected margin: East Carolina by 9.8

Off by28.2

Sat, Sep 13Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Vanderbilt	+151	40%	31
South Carolina	−151	60%	7

Spread: South Carolina −4.5
Projected margin: South Carolina by 4.4

Off by28.4

Sat, Sep 13Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Duke	+271	27%	27
Tulane	−271	73%	34

Spread: Tulane −10.5
Projected margin: Tulane by 10.5

Off by3.5

Sat, Sep 13Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Abilene Christian	+6362	2%	21
TCU	−6362	98%	42

Spread: TCU −37
Projected margin: TCU by 36.9

Off by15.9

Sat, Sep 13Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Utah	−3513	97%	31
Wyoming	+3513	3%	6

Spread: Utah −33
Projected margin: Utah by 32.8

Off by7.8

Sat, Sep 13Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Navy	−1341	93%	42
Tulsa	+1341	7%	23

Spread: Navy −25.5
Projected margin: Navy by 25.3

Off by6.3

Sat, Sep 13Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Akron	+275	27%	28
UAB	−275	73%	31

Spread: UAB −10.5
Projected margin: UAB by 10.6

Off by7.6

Sat, Sep 13Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Air Force	+131	43%	30
Utah State	−131	57%	49

Spread: Utah State −3
Projected margin: Utah State by 2.9

Off by16.1

Sat, Sep 13Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Southern	+20043	0%	7
Fresno State	−20043	100%	56

Spread: Fresno State −44
Projected margin: Fresno State by 44.1

Off by4.9

Sat, Sep 13Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Minnesota	−238	70%	14
California	+238	30%	27

Spread: Minnesota −9
Projected margin: Minnesota by 9.2

Off by22.2

Sat, Sep 13Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Boston College	−255	72%	20
Stanford	+255	28%	30

Spread: Boston College −10
Projected margin: Boston College by 9.9

Off by19.9

Sat, Sep 13Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Texas State	+140	42%	15
Arizona State	−140	58%	34

Spread: Arizona State −3.5
Projected margin: Arizona State by 3.6

Off by15.4

Sat, Sep 13Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Portland State	+1748	5%	3
Hawai'i	−1748	95%	23

Spread: Hawai'i −27.5
Projected margin: Hawai'i by 27.5

Off by7.5

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