Archive

A history of our predictions. A model is only worth what its predictions are, so all of ours are made public after games end.

Were the model's chances right?

Every game is sorted by the chance that the Field Theory model gave each team to win. Each bar shows the amount of teams in that prediction range that actually won. When the model's chances are honest, the bar boundary ends up inside the shaded band.

How often the model's favorites won, by the chance it gave them
Model's chance for the favorite	Favorites won	Underdogs won
90% to 100% (underdog 0% to 10%)	96%	4%
80% to 90% (underdog 10% to 20%)	82%	18%
70% to 80% (underdog 20% to 30%)	76%	24%
60% to 70% (underdog 30% to 40%)	63%	37%
50% to 60% (underdog 40% to 50%)	50%	50%

76%Winners picked1148 of 1508 games, not including toss-ups

12.7Average missPoints between projected and final margin among FBS matchups

1522GamesFinal with a pregame prediction, all seasons

Click here to see Field Theory's advanced statistics.

Week 7

39 of 56 winners picked (70%) · average miss 14.5 pts

Wed, Oct 8Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Missouri State	−247	71%	22
Middle Tennessee	+247	29%	20

Spread: Missouri State −9.5
Projected margin: Missouri State by 9.6

Off by7.6

Wed, Oct 8Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Liberty	−106	52%	19
UTEP	+106	48%	8

Spread: Liberty −0.5
Projected margin: Liberty by 0.7

Off by10.3

Thu, Oct 9Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Louisiana Tech	−374	79%	7
Kennesaw State	+374	21%	35

Spread: Louisiana Tech −13.5
Projected margin: Louisiana Tech by 13.7

Off by41.7

Thu, Oct 9Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
East Carolina	+191	34%	19
Tulane	−191	66%	26

Spread: Tulane −7
Projected margin: Tulane by 6.9

Off by0.1

Thu, Oct 9 · Neutral siteCorrect pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Jacksonville State	−174	64%	29
Sam Houston	+174	36%	27

Spread: Jacksonville State −6
Projected margin: Jacksonville State by 5.9

Off by3.9

Thu, Oct 9Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Southern Miss	+236	30%	38
Georgia Southern	−236	70%	35

Spread: Georgia Southern −9
Projected margin: Georgia Southern by 9.1

Off by12.1

Fri, Oct 10Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
South Florida	+243	29%	63
North Texas	−243	71%	36

Spread: North Texas −9.5
Projected margin: North Texas by 9.4

Off by36.4

Fri, Oct 10Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Rutgers	+303	25%	19
Washington	−303	75%	38

Spread: Washington −11.5
Projected margin: Washington by 11.6

Off by7.4

Fri, Oct 10Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Fresno State	−174	64%	21
Colorado State	+174	36%	49

Spread: Fresno State −6
Projected margin: Fresno State by 5.9

Off by33.9

Sat, Oct 11Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Alabama	−187	65%	27
Missouri	+187	35%	24

Spread: Alabama −6.5
Projected margin: Alabama by 6.6

Off by3.6

Sat, Oct 11Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
UCLA	+280	26%	38
Michigan State	−280	74%	13

Spread: Michigan State −11
Projected margin: Michigan State by 10.8

Off by35.8

Sat, Oct 11Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Ohio State	−414	81%	34
Illinois	+414	19%	16

Spread: Ohio State −14.5
Projected margin: Ohio State by 14.7

Off by3.3

Sat, Oct 11Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Pittsburgh	+185	35%	34
Florida State	−185	65%	31

Spread: Florida State −6.5
Projected margin: Florida State by 6.6

Off by9.6

Sat, Oct 11Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Stanford	+729	12%	10
SMU	−729	88%	34

Spread: SMU −20
Projected margin: SMU by 20.0

Off by4.0

Sat, Oct 11Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
UCF	+143	41%	11
Cincinnati	−143	59%	20

Spread: Cincinnati −4
Projected margin: Cincinnati by 3.8

Off by5.2

Sat, Oct 11Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Houston	−316	76%	39
Oklahoma State	+316	24%	17

Spread: Houston −12
Projected margin: Houston by 12.1

Off by9.9

Sat, Oct 11Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Louisiana	+494	17%	14
James Madison	−494	83%	24

Spread: James Madison −16.5
Projected margin: James Madison by 16.4

Off by6.4

Sat, Oct 11Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Charlotte	+1508	6%	7
Army	−1508	94%	24

Spread: Army −26.5
Projected margin: Army by 26.3

Off by9.3

Sat, Oct 11Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Miami (OH)	−345	78%	20
Akron	+345	22%	7

Spread: Miami (OH) −13
Projected margin: Miami (OH) by 12.9

Off by0.1

Sat, Oct 11Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Toledo	−174	64%	23
Bowling Green	+174	36%	28

Spread: Toledo −6
Projected margin: Toledo by 5.9

Off by10.9

Sat, Oct 11Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Washington State	+2359	4%	21
Ole Miss	−2359	96%	24

Spread: Ole Miss −30
Projected margin: Ole Miss by 29.8

Off by26.8

Sat, Oct 11Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Northern Illinois	−194	66%	10
Eastern Michigan	+194	34%	16

Spread: Northern Illinois −7
Projected margin: Northern Illinois by 7.0

Off by13.0

Sat, Oct 11Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Massachusetts	−125	56%	6
Kent State	+125	44%	42

Spread: Massachusetts −2.5
Projected margin: Massachusetts by 2.4

Off by38.4

Sat, Oct 11 · Neutral siteCorrect pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Oklahoma	+212	32%	6
Texas	−212	68%	23

Spread: Texas −8
Projected margin: Texas by 8.0

Off by9.0

Sat, Oct 11Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Northwestern	+1511	6%	22
Penn State	−1511	94%	21

Spread: Penn State −26.5
Projected margin: Penn State by 26.3

Off by27.3

Sat, Oct 11Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Nebraska	−174	63%	34
Maryland	+174	37%	31

Spread: Nebraska −6
Projected margin: Nebraska by 5.9

Off by2.9

Sat, Oct 11Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Indiana	−179	64%	30
Oregon	+179	36%	20

Spread: Indiana −6
Projected margin: Indiana by 6.2

Off by3.8

Sat, Oct 11Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Virginia Tech	+209	32%	20
Georgia Tech	−209	68%	35

Spread: Georgia Tech −8
Projected margin: Georgia Tech by 7.8

Off by7.2

Sat, Oct 11Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
NC State	+2061	5%	7
Notre Dame	−2061	95%	36

Spread: Notre Dame −29
Projected margin: Notre Dame by 28.8

Off by0.2

Sat, Oct 11Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Wake Forest	−189	65%	39
Oregon State	+189	35%	14

Spread: Wake Forest −7
Projected margin: Wake Forest by 6.8

Off by18.2

Sat, Oct 11Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Iowa State	−169	63%	17
Colorado	+169	37%	24

Spread: Iowa State −5.5
Projected margin: Iowa State by 5.6

Off by12.6

Sat, Oct 11Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
TCU	−167	63%	28
Kansas State	+167	37%	41

Spread: TCU −5.5
Projected margin: TCU by 5.5

Off by18.5

Sat, Oct 11Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Air Force	+346	22%	48
UNLV	−346	78%	51

Spread: UNLV −13
Projected margin: UNLV by 13.0

Off by10.0

Sat, Oct 11Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
App State	+135	43%	41
Georgia State	−135	57%	20

Spread: Georgia State −3
Projected margin: Georgia State by 3.2

Off by24.2

Sat, Oct 11Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Old Dominion	−287	74%	24
Marshall	+287	26%	48

Spread: Old Dominion −11
Projected margin: Old Dominion by 11.1

Off by35.1

Sat, Oct 11Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Ball State	+397	20%	0
Western Michigan	−397	80%	42

Spread: Western Michigan −14.5
Projected margin: Western Michigan by 14.3

Off by27.7

Sat, Oct 11Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Navy	−278	74%	32
Temple	+278	26%	31

Spread: Navy −11
Projected margin: Navy by 10.8

Off by9.8

Sat, Oct 11Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Arkansas	+309	24%	31
Tennessee	−309	76%	34

Spread: Tennessee −12
Projected margin: Tennessee by 11.8

Off by8.8

Sat, Oct 11Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
UAB	+184	35%	33
Florida Atlantic	−184	65%	53

Spread: Florida Atlantic −6.5
Projected margin: Florida Atlantic by 6.5

Off by13.5

Sat, Oct 11Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Florida	+241	29%	17
Texas A&M	−241	71%	34

Spread: Texas A&M −9.5
Projected margin: Texas A&M by 9.3

Off by7.7

Sat, Oct 11Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Iowa	−259	72%	37
Wisconsin	+259	28%	0

Spread: Iowa −10
Projected margin: Iowa by 10.0

Off by27.0

Sat, Oct 11Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
San José State	−127	56%	28
Wyoming	+127	44%	35

Spread: San José State −2.5
Projected margin: San José State by 2.5

Off by9.5

Sat, Oct 11Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
UL Monroe	+195	34%	8
Coastal Carolina	−195	66%	23

Spread: Coastal Carolina −7
Projected margin: Coastal Carolina by 7.1

Off by7.9

Sat, Oct 11Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Georgia	−171	63%	20
Auburn	+171	37%	10

Spread: Georgia −5.5
Projected margin: Georgia by 5.7

Off by4.3

Sat, Oct 11Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Purdue	+278	26%	20
Minnesota	−278	74%	27

Spread: Minnesota −10.5
Projected margin: Minnesota by 10.7

Off by3.7

Sat, Oct 11Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Michigan	+222	31%	13
USC	−222	69%	31

Spread: USC −8.5
Projected margin: USC by 8.4

Off by9.6

Sat, Oct 11Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Clemson	−243	71%	41
Boston College	+243	29%	10

Spread: Clemson −9.5
Projected margin: Clemson by 9.4

Off by21.6

Sat, Oct 11Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Kansas	+185	35%	17
Texas Tech	−185	65%	42

Spread: Texas Tech −6.5
Projected margin: Texas Tech by 6.6

Off by18.4

Sat, Oct 11Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Rice	+334	23%	13
UTSA	−334	77%	61

Spread: UTSA −12.5
Projected margin: UTSA by 12.6

Off by35.4

Sat, Oct 11Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
South Carolina	+160	38%	10
LSU	−160	62%	20

Spread: LSU −5
Projected margin: LSU by 5.0

Off by5.0

Sat, Oct 11Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
BYU	−288	74%	33
Arizona	+288	26%	27

Spread: BYU −11
Projected margin: BYU by 11.1

Off by5.1

Sat, Oct 11Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Troy	+420	19%	48
Texas State	−420	81%	41

Spread: Texas State −15
Projected margin: Texas State by 14.9

Off by21.9

Sat, Oct 11Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
New Mexico	+278	26%	25
Boise State	−278	74%	41

Spread: Boise State −10.5
Projected margin: Boise State by 10.7

Off by5.3

Sat, Oct 11Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Arizona State	+221	31%	10
Utah	−221	69%	42

Spread: Utah −8.5
Projected margin: Utah by 8.4

Off by23.6

Sat, Oct 11Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
San Diego State	−234	70%	44
Nevada	+234	30%	10

Spread: San Diego State −9
Projected margin: San Diego State by 9.0

Off by25.0

Sat, Oct 11Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Utah State	−155	61%	26
Hawai'i	+155	39%	44

Spread: Utah State −4.5
Projected margin: Utah State by 4.7

Off by22.7

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