Archive

A history of our predictions. A model is only worth what its predictions are, so all of ours are made public after games end.

Were the model's chances right?

Every game is sorted by the chance that the Field Theory model gave each team to win. Each bar shows the amount of teams in that prediction range that actually won. When the model's chances are honest, the bar boundary ends up inside the shaded band.

How often the model's favorites won, by the chance it gave them
Model's chance for the favorite	Favorites won	Underdogs won
90% to 100% (underdog 0% to 10%)	96%	4%
80% to 90% (underdog 10% to 20%)	82%	18%
70% to 80% (underdog 20% to 30%)	76%	24%
60% to 70% (underdog 30% to 40%)	63%	37%
50% to 60% (underdog 40% to 50%)	50%	50%

76%Winners picked1148 of 1508 games, not including toss-ups

12.7Average missPoints between projected and final margin among FBS matchups

1522GamesFinal with a pregame prediction, all seasons

Click here to see Field Theory's advanced statistics.

Week 4

47 of 62 winners picked (76%) · average miss 12.4 pts

Thu, Sep 18Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Rice	−198	66%	28
Charlotte	+198	34%	17

Spread: Rice −7
Projected margin: Rice by 7.2

Off by3.8

Fri, Sep 19Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Tulsa	+331	23%	19
Oklahoma State	−331	77%	12

Spread: Oklahoma State −12.5
Projected margin: Oklahoma State by 12.5

Off by19.5

Fri, Sep 19Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Iowa	−115	53%	38
Rutgers	+115	47%	28

Spread: Iowa −1.5
Projected margin: Iowa by 1.5

Off by8.5

Sat, Sep 20Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Arkansas	−193	66%	31
Memphis	+193	34%	32

Spread: Arkansas −7
Projected margin: Arkansas by 7.0

Off by8.0

Sat, Sep 20Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Maryland	+212	32%	27
Wisconsin	−212	68%	10

Spread: Wisconsin −8
Projected margin: Wisconsin by 8.0

Off by25.0

Sat, Sep 20Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Syracuse	+280	26%	34
Clemson	−280	74%	21

Spread: Clemson −11
Projected margin: Clemson by 10.8

Off by23.8

Sat, Sep 20Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Wofford	+8024	1%	6
Virginia Tech	−8024	99%	38

Spread: Virginia Tech −38.5
Projected margin: Virginia Tech by 38.4

Off by6.4

Sat, Sep 20Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
SMU	+267	27%	24
TCU	−267	73%	35

Spread: TCU −10.5
Projected margin: TCU by 10.3

Off by0.7

Sat, Sep 20Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Bowling Green	+1202	8%	17
Louisville	−1202	92%	40

Spread: Louisville −24.5
Projected margin: Louisville by 24.4

Off by1.4

Sat, Sep 20Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Texas Tech	+381	21%	34
Utah	−381	79%	10

Spread: Utah −14
Projected margin: Utah by 13.9

Off by37.9

Sat, Sep 20Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
UNLV	−174	63%	41
Miami (OH)	+174	37%	38

Spread: UNLV −6
Projected margin: UNLV by 5.9

Off by2.9

Sat, Sep 20Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
North Texas	+166	38%	45
Army	−166	62%	38

Spread: Army −5.5
Projected margin: Army by 5.4

Off by12.4

Sat, Sep 20Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
South Carolina State	+3106	3%	14
South Florida	−3106	97%	63

Spread: South Florida −32
Projected margin: South Florida by 31.9

Off by17.1

Sat, Sep 20Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
UAB	+5207	2%	24
Tennessee	−5207	98%	56

Spread: Tennessee −35.5
Projected margin: Tennessee by 35.5

Off by3.5

Sat, Sep 20Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Wagner	+1388	7%	10
Central Michigan	−1388	93%	49

Spread: Central Michigan −25.5
Projected margin: Central Michigan by 25.6

Off by13.4

Sat, Sep 20Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Oregon State	+14419	1%	7
Oregon	−14419	99%	41

Spread: Oregon −42
Projected margin: Oregon by 42.1

Off by8.1

Sat, Sep 20Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Tulane	+494	17%	10
Ole Miss	−494	83%	45

Spread: Ole Miss −16.5
Projected margin: Ole Miss by 16.4

Off by18.6

Sat, Sep 20Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Auburn	+166	38%	17
Oklahoma	−166	62%	24

Spread: Oklahoma −5.5
Projected margin: Oklahoma by 5.4

Off by1.6

Sat, Sep 20Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Michigan	+136	42%	30
Nebraska	−136	58%	27

Spread: Nebraska −3.5
Projected margin: Nebraska by 3.3

Off by6.3

Sat, Sep 20Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Purdue	+9667	1%	30
Notre Dame	−9667	99%	56

Spread: Notre Dame −39.5
Projected margin: Notre Dame by 39.6

Off by13.6

Sat, Sep 20Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Kent State	+14924	1%	10
Florida State	−14924	99%	66

Spread: Florida State −42.5
Projected margin: Florida State by 42.3

Off by13.7

Sat, Sep 20Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
North Carolina	+337	23%	9
UCF	−337	77%	34

Spread: UCF −12.5
Projected margin: UCF by 12.7

Off by12.3

Sat, Sep 20Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Ball State	+1008	9%	25
UConn	−1008	91%	31

Spread: UConn −23
Projected margin: UConn by 22.9

Off by16.9

Sat, Sep 20Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
James Madison	−323	76%	31
Liberty	+323	24%	13

Spread: James Madison −12.5
Projected margin: James Madison by 12.3

Off by5.7

Sat, Sep 20Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Louisiana	−236	70%	31
Eastern Michigan	+236	30%	34

Spread: Louisiana −9
Projected margin: Louisiana by 9.1

Off by12.1

Sat, Sep 20Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Troy	−108	52%	21
Buffalo	+108	48%	17

Spread: Troy −1
Projected margin: Troy by 0.9

Off by3.1

Sat, Sep 20Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Toledo	−303	75%	13
Western Michigan	+303	25%	14

Spread: Toledo −11.5
Projected margin: Toledo by 11.6

Off by12.6

Sat, Sep 20Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Gardner-Webb	+1478	6%	35
Ohio	−1478	94%	52

Spread: Ohio −26
Projected margin: Ohio by 26.1

Off by9.1

Sat, Sep 20Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
NC State	+118	46%	33
Duke	−118	54%	45

Spread: Duke −2
Projected margin: Duke by 1.8

Off by10.2

Sat, Sep 20Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Northern Illinois	+292	25%	10
Mississippi State	−292	75%	38

Spread: Mississippi State −11.5
Projected margin: Mississippi State by 11.3

Off by16.7

Sat, Sep 20Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Temple	+429	19%	24
Georgia Tech	−429	81%	45

Spread: Georgia Tech −15
Projected margin: Georgia Tech by 15.1

Off by5.9

Sat, Sep 20Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Idaho	+175	36%	28
San José State	−175	64%	31

Spread: San José State −6
Projected margin: San José State by 6.0

Off by3.0

Sat, Sep 20Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
West Virginia	+284	26%	10
Kansas	−284	74%	41

Spread: Kansas −11
Projected margin: Kansas by 11.0

Off by20.0

Sat, Sep 20Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Delaware	+176	36%	38
Florida International	−176	64%	16

Spread: Florida International −6
Projected margin: Florida International by 6.0

Off by28.0

Sat, Sep 20Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Arkansas State	−223	69%	21
Kennesaw State	+223	31%	28

Spread: Arkansas State −8.5
Projected margin: Arkansas State by 8.5

Off by15.5

Sat, Sep 20Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Duquesne	+352	22%	7
Akron	−352	78%	51

Spread: Akron −13
Projected margin: Akron by 13.1

Off by30.9

Sat, Sep 20Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
South Carolina	+190	34%	20
Missouri	−190	66%	29

Spread: Missouri −7
Projected margin: Missouri by 6.8

Off by2.2

Sat, Sep 20Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Murray State	+7026	1%	10
Jacksonville State	−7026	99%	45

Spread: Jacksonville State −37.5
Projected margin: Jacksonville State by 37.6

Off by2.6

Sat, Sep 20Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Marshall	−560	85%	42
Middle Tennessee	+560	15%	28

Spread: Marshall −17.5
Projected margin: Marshall by 17.6

Off by3.6

Sat, Sep 20Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
UT Martin	+301	25%	10
Missouri State	−301	75%	42

Spread: Missouri State −11.5
Projected margin: Missouri State by 11.6

Off by20.4

Sat, Sep 20Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Nevada	+441	18%	16
Western Kentucky	−441	82%	31

Spread: Western Kentucky −15.5
Projected margin: Western Kentucky by 15.3

Off by0.3

Sat, Sep 20Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Boise State	−303	75%	49
Air Force	+303	25%	37

Spread: Boise State −11.5
Projected margin: Boise State by 11.6

Off by0.4

Sat, Sep 20Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Maine	+1879	5%	17
Georgia Southern	−1879	95%	45

Spread: Georgia Southern −28
Projected margin: Georgia Southern by 28.0

Off by0.0

Sat, Sep 20Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Coastal Carolina	+537	16%	38
South Alabama	−537	84%	20

Spread: South Alabama −17
Projected margin: South Alabama by 17.2

Off by35.2

Sat, Sep 20Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Florida	+669	13%	7
Miami	−669	87%	26

Spread: Miami −19.5
Projected margin: Miami by 19.3

Off by0.3

Sat, Sep 20Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Georgia State	+3735	3%	21
Vanderbilt	−3735	97%	70

Spread: Vanderbilt −33
Projected margin: Vanderbilt by 33.2

Off by15.8

Sat, Sep 20Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Washington	−615	86%	59
Washington State	+615	14%	24

Spread: Washington −18.5
Projected margin: Washington by 18.5

Off by16.5

Sat, Sep 20Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Illinois	+503	17%	10
Indiana	−503	83%	63

Spread: Indiana −16.5
Projected margin: Indiana by 16.6

Off by36.4

Sat, Sep 20Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Stanford	+268	27%	20
Virginia	−268	73%	48

Spread: Virginia −10.5
Projected margin: Virginia by 10.4

Off by17.6

Sat, Sep 20Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Arizona State	+106	48%	27
Baylor	−106	52%	24

Spread: Baylor −0.5
Projected margin: Baylor by 0.7

Off by3.7

Sat, Sep 20Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
BYU	−436	81%	34
East Carolina	+436	19%	13

Spread: BYU −15
Projected margin: BYU by 15.2

Off by5.8

Sat, Sep 20Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Southern Miss	+410	20%	20
Louisiana Tech	−410	80%	30

Spread: Louisiana Tech −14.5
Projected margin: Louisiana Tech by 14.6

Off by4.6

Sat, Sep 20Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
SE Louisiana	+9050	1%	10
LSU	−9050	99%	56

Spread: LSU −39
Projected margin: LSU by 39.2

Off by6.8

Sat, Sep 20Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Sam Houston	+5410	2%	0
Texas	−5410	98%	55

Spread: Texas −36
Projected margin: Texas by 35.8

Off by19.2

Sat, Sep 20Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
McNeese	+912	10%	7
Utah State	−912	90%	48

Spread: Utah State −22
Projected margin: Utah State by 22.0

Off by19.0

Sat, Sep 20Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Nicholls	+4758	2%	3
Texas State	−4758	98%	35

Spread: Texas State −35
Projected margin: Texas State by 34.9

Off by2.9

Sat, Sep 20Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
UL Monroe	+233	30%	31
UTEP	−233	70%	25

Spread: UTEP −9
Projected margin: UTEP by 8.9

Off by14.9

Sat, Sep 20Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
UTSA	−262	72%	17
Colorado State	+262	28%	16

Spread: UTSA −10
Projected margin: UTSA by 10.2

Off by9.2

Sat, Sep 20Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Wyoming	+1421	7%	20
Colorado	−1421	93%	37

Spread: Colorado −26
Projected margin: Colorado by 25.8

Off by8.8

Sat, Sep 20Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
California	−253	72%	0
San Diego State	+253	28%	34

Spread: California −10
Projected margin: California by 9.8

Off by43.8

Sat, Sep 20Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Michigan State	+1050	9%	31
USC	−1050	91%	45

Spread: USC −23.5
Projected margin: USC by 23.3

Off by9.3

Sat, Sep 20Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Fresno State	−163	62%	23
Hawai'i	+163	38%	21

Spread: Fresno State −5
Projected margin: Fresno State by 5.2

Off by3.2

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