Archive

A history of our predictions. A model is only worth what its predictions are, so all of ours are made public after games end.

Were the model's chances right?

Every game is sorted by the chance that the Field Theory model gave each team to win. Each bar shows the amount of teams in that prediction range that actually won. When the model's chances are honest, the bar boundary ends up inside the shaded band.

How often the model's favorites won, by the chance it gave them
Model's chance for the favorite	Favorites won	Underdogs won
90% to 100% (underdog 0% to 10%)	96%	4%
80% to 90% (underdog 10% to 20%)	82%	18%
70% to 80% (underdog 20% to 30%)	76%	24%
60% to 70% (underdog 30% to 40%)	63%	37%
50% to 60% (underdog 40% to 50%)	50%	50%

76%Winners picked1148 of 1508 games, not including toss-ups

12.7Average missPoints between projected and final margin among FBS matchups

1522GamesFinal with a pregame prediction, all seasons

Click here to see Field Theory's advanced statistics.

Week 8

40 of 58 winners picked (69%) · average miss 12.8 pts

Tue, Oct 14Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
New Mexico State	+326	23%	27
Liberty	−326	77%	30

Spread: Liberty −12.5
Projected margin: Liberty by 12.4

Off by9.4

Tue, Oct 14Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Arkansas State	+278	26%	15
South Alabama	−278	74%	14

Spread: South Alabama −11
Projected margin: South Alabama by 10.8

Off by11.8

Tue, Oct 14Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Florida International	+380	21%	25
Western Kentucky	−380	79%	6

Spread: Western Kentucky −14
Projected margin: Western Kentucky by 13.9

Off by32.9

Wed, Oct 15Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Delaware	+143	41%	25
Jacksonville State	−143	59%	38

Spread: Jacksonville State −4
Projected margin: Jacksonville State by 3.9

Off by9.1

Wed, Oct 15 · Neutral siteMissed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
UTEP	+154	39%	35
Sam Houston	−154	61%	17

Spread: Sam Houston −4.5
Projected margin: Sam Houston by 4.6

Off by22.6

Thu, Oct 16Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Tulsa	+1157	8%	27
East Carolina	−1157	92%	41

Spread: East Carolina −24
Projected margin: East Carolina by 24.1

Off by10.1

Fri, Oct 17Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Louisville	+675	13%	24
Miami	−675	87%	21

Spread: Miami −19.5
Projected margin: Miami by 19.3

Off by22.3

Fri, Oct 17Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Nebraska	−186	65%	6
Minnesota	+186	35%	24

Spread: Nebraska −6.5
Projected margin: Nebraska by 6.6

Off by24.6

Fri, Oct 17Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
San José State	+148	40%	25
Utah State	−148	60%	30

Spread: Utah State −4
Projected margin: Utah State by 4.2

Off by0.8

Fri, Oct 17Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
North Carolina	+151	40%	18
California	−151	60%	21

Spread: California −4.5
Projected margin: California by 4.4

Off by1.4

Sat, Oct 18Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
LSU	+158	39%	24
Vanderbilt	−158	61%	31

Spread: Vanderbilt −5
Projected margin: Vanderbilt by 4.9

Off by2.1

Sat, Oct 18Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Washington	−142	59%	7
Michigan	+142	41%	24

Spread: Washington −4
Projected margin: Washington by 3.8

Off by20.8

Sat, Oct 18Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Georgia Tech	+148	40%	27
Duke	−148	60%	18

Spread: Duke −4
Projected margin: Duke by 4.2

Off by13.2

Sat, Oct 18Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
UConn	−105	51%	38
Boston College	+105	49%	23

Spread: UConn −0.5
Projected margin: UConn by 0.6

Off by14.4

Sat, Oct 18Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Arizona	+112	47%	28
Houston	−112	53%	31

Spread: Houston −1.5
Projected margin: Houston by 1.3

Off by1.7

Sat, Oct 18Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Baylor	+202	33%	36
TCU	−202	67%	42

Spread: TCU −7.5
Projected margin: TCU by 7.5

Off by1.5

Sat, Oct 18Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Army	+164	38%	17
Tulane	−164	62%	24

Spread: Tulane −5.5
Projected margin: Tulane by 5.3

Off by1.7

Sat, Oct 18Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Central Michigan	+381	21%	27
Bowling Green	−381	79%	6

Spread: Bowling Green −14
Projected margin: Bowling Green by 13.9

Off by34.9

Sat, Oct 18Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Eastern Michigan	+455	18%	30
Miami (OH)	−455	82%	44

Spread: Miami (OH) −15.5
Projected margin: Miami (OH) by 15.6

Off by1.6

Sat, Oct 18Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Oklahoma	+102	49%	26
South Carolina	−102	51%	7

Spread: Pick'em
Projected margin: South Carolina by 0.2

Off by19.2

Sat, Oct 18Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
West Virginia	+259	28%	13
UCF	−259	72%	45

Spread: UCF −10
Projected margin: UCF by 10.1

Off by21.9

Sat, Oct 18Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Kent State	+2866	3%	10
Toledo	−2866	97%	45

Spread: Toledo −31.5
Projected margin: Toledo by 31.3

Off by3.7

Sat, Oct 18Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Buffalo	−491	83%	28
Massachusetts	+491	17%	21

Spread: Buffalo −16.5
Projected margin: Buffalo by 16.4

Off by9.4

Sat, Oct 18Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Purdue	+192	34%	0
Northwestern	−192	66%	19

Spread: Northwestern −7
Projected margin: Northwestern by 6.9

Off by12.1

Sat, Oct 18Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Troy	−205	67%	37
UL Monroe	+205	33%	14

Spread: Troy −7.5
Projected margin: Troy by 7.6

Off by15.4

Sat, Oct 18Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Texas A&M	−190	66%	45
Arkansas	+190	34%	42

Spread: Texas A&M −7
Projected margin: Texas A&M by 6.9

Off by3.9

Sat, Oct 18Toss-up

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Ole Miss	EVEN	50%	35
Georgia	EVEN	50%	43

Spread: Pick'em
Projected margin: Even

Off by8.0

Sat, Oct 18Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Ohio State	−2444	96%	34
Wisconsin	+2444	4%	0

Spread: Ohio State −30
Projected margin: Ohio State by 30.1

Off by3.9

Sat, Oct 18Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Michigan State	+8137	1%	13
Indiana	−8137	99%	38

Spread: Indiana −38.5
Projected margin: Indiana by 38.5

Off by13.5

Sat, Oct 18Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
SMU	+126	44%	35
Clemson	−126	56%	24

Spread: Clemson −2.5
Projected margin: Clemson by 2.5

Off by13.5

Sat, Oct 18Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Wyoming	+143	41%	21
Air Force	−143	59%	24

Spread: Air Force −4
Projected margin: Air Force by 3.8

Off by0.8

Sat, Oct 18Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
UNLV	+223	31%	31
Boise State	−223	69%	56

Spread: Boise State −8.5
Projected margin: Boise State by 8.5

Off by16.5

Sat, Oct 18Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Coastal Carolina	−112	53%	45
App State	+112	47%	37

Spread: Coastal Carolina −1
Projected margin: Coastal Carolina by 1.2

Off by6.8

Sat, Oct 18Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Old Dominion	−123	55%	27
James Madison	+123	45%	63

Spread: Old Dominion −2
Projected margin: Old Dominion by 2.2

Off by38.2

Sat, Oct 18Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Texas State	−128	56%	37
Marshall	+128	44%	40

Spread: Texas State −2.5
Projected margin: Texas State by 2.6

Off by5.6

Sat, Oct 18Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Temple	−233	70%	49
Charlotte	+233	30%	14

Spread: Temple −9
Projected margin: Temple by 9.0

Off by26.0

Sat, Oct 18Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
UTSA	+210	32%	17
North Texas	−210	68%	55

Spread: North Texas −8
Projected margin: North Texas by 7.9

Off by30.1

Sat, Oct 18Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Akron	+116	46%	28
Ball State	−116	54%	42

Spread: Ball State −1.5
Projected margin: Ball State by 1.6

Off by12.4

Sat, Oct 18Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Northern Illinois	+406	20%	21
Ohio	−406	80%	48

Spread: Ohio −14.5
Projected margin: Ohio by 14.5

Off by12.5

Sat, Oct 18Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Texas Tech	−138	58%	22
Arizona State	+138	42%	26

Spread: Texas Tech −3.5
Projected margin: Texas Tech by 3.4

Off by7.4

Sat, Oct 18Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Memphis	−1078	92%	24
UAB	+1078	8%	31

Spread: Memphis −23.5
Projected margin: Memphis by 23.5

Off by30.5

Sat, Oct 18Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Mississippi State	+347	22%	21
Florida	−347	78%	23

Spread: Florida −13
Projected margin: Florida by 13.0

Off by11.0

Sat, Oct 18Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Southern Miss	+216	32%	22
Louisiana	−216	68%	10

Spread: Louisiana −8
Projected margin: Louisiana by 8.2

Off by20.2

Sat, Oct 18Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Oregon	−509	84%	56
Rutgers	+509	16%	10

Spread: Oregon −16.5
Projected margin: Oregon by 16.7

Off by29.3

Sat, Oct 18Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Washington State	+301	25%	20
Virginia	−301	75%	22

Spread: Virginia −11.5
Projected margin: Virginia by 11.6

Off by9.6

Sat, Oct 18Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Texas	−453	82%	16
Kentucky	+453	18%	13

Spread: Texas −15.5
Projected margin: Texas by 15.6

Off by12.6

Sat, Oct 18Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Penn State	+121	45%	24
Iowa	−121	55%	25

Spread: Iowa −2
Projected margin: Iowa by 2.0

Off by1.0

Sat, Oct 18Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Maryland	−136	58%	17
UCLA	+136	42%	20

Spread: Maryland −3.5
Projected margin: Maryland by 3.3

Off by6.3

Sat, Oct 18Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Hawai'i	+146	41%	31
Colorado State	−146	59%	19

Spread: Colorado State −4
Projected margin: Colorado State by 4.1

Off by16.1

Sat, Oct 18Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Georgia State	+316	24%	24
Georgia Southern	−316	76%	41

Spread: Georgia Southern −12
Projected margin: Georgia Southern by 12.1

Off by4.9

Sat, Oct 18Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Tennessee	+230	30%	20
Alabama	−230	70%	37

Spread: Alabama −9
Projected margin: Alabama by 8.8

Off by8.2

Sat, Oct 18Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
USC	+279	26%	24
Notre Dame	−279	74%	34

Spread: Notre Dame −11
Projected margin: Notre Dame by 10.8

Off by0.8

Sat, Oct 18Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Pittsburgh	−147	60%	30
Syracuse	+147	40%	13

Spread: Pittsburgh −4
Projected margin: Pittsburgh by 4.1

Off by12.9

Sat, Oct 18Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Florida Atlantic	+662	13%	13
South Florida	−662	87%	48

Spread: South Florida −19
Projected margin: South Florida by 19.2

Off by15.8

Sat, Oct 18Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Missouri	−107	52%	23
Auburn	+107	48%	17

Spread: Missouri −0.5
Projected margin: Missouri by 0.7

Off by5.3

Sat, Oct 18Toss-up

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Utah	+102	50%	21
BYU	−102	50%	24

Spread: Pick'em
Projected margin: BYU by 0.2

Off by2.8

Sat, Oct 18Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Cincinnati	−479	83%	49
Oklahoma State	+479	17%	17

Spread: Cincinnati −16
Projected margin: Cincinnati by 16.1

Off by15.9

Sat, Oct 18Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Nevada	+499	17%	22
New Mexico	−499	83%	24

Spread: New Mexico −16.5
Projected margin: New Mexico by 16.5

Off by14.5

Sat, Oct 18Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Lafayette	+462	18%	13
Oregon State	−462	82%	45

Spread: Oregon State −16
Projected margin: Oregon State by 15.8

Off by16.2

Sat, Oct 18Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Florida State	−383	79%	13
Stanford	+383	21%	20

Spread: Florida State −14
Projected margin: Florida State by 14.0

Off by21.0

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