Archive

A history of our predictions. A model is only worth what its predictions are, so all of ours are made public after games end.

Were the model's chances right?

Every game is sorted by the chance that the Field Theory model gave each team to win. Each bar shows the amount of teams in that prediction range that actually won. When the model's chances are honest, the bar boundary ends up inside the shaded band.

How often the model's favorites won, by the chance it gave them
Model's chance for the favorite	Favorites won	Underdogs won
90% to 100% (underdog 0% to 10%)	96%	4%
80% to 90% (underdog 10% to 20%)	82%	18%
70% to 80% (underdog 20% to 30%)	76%	24%
60% to 70% (underdog 30% to 40%)	63%	37%
50% to 60% (underdog 40% to 50%)	50%	50%

76%Winners picked1148 of 1508 games, not including toss-ups

12.7Average missPoints between projected and final margin among FBS matchups

1522GamesFinal with a pregame prediction, all seasons

Click here to see Field Theory's advanced statistics.

Week 14

49 of 65 winners picked (75%) · average miss 12.3 pts

Tue, Nov 25Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Bowling Green	−742	88%	45
Massachusetts	+742	12%	14

Spread: Bowling Green −20
Projected margin: Bowling Green by 20.2

Off by10.8

Tue, Nov 25Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Western Michigan	−246	71%	31
Eastern Michigan	+246	29%	21

Spread: Western Michigan −9.5
Projected margin: Western Michigan by 9.5

Off by0.5

Thu, Nov 27Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Navy	+148	40%	28
Memphis	−148	60%	17

Spread: Memphis −4
Projected margin: Memphis by 4.2

Off by15.2

Fri, Nov 28Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Ole Miss	−450	82%	38
Mississippi State	+450	18%	19

Spread: Ole Miss −15.5
Projected margin: Ole Miss by 15.5

Off by3.5

Fri, Nov 28Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Iowa	−202	67%	40
Nebraska	+202	33%	16

Spread: Iowa −7.5
Projected margin: Iowa by 7.5

Off by16.5

Fri, Nov 28Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Utah	−464	82%	31
Kansas	+464	18%	21

Spread: Utah −16
Projected margin: Utah by 15.8

Off by5.8

Fri, Nov 28Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Ohio	−295	75%	31
Buffalo	+295	25%	26

Spread: Ohio −11.5
Projected margin: Ohio by 11.4

Off by6.4

Fri, Nov 28Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Kent State	+419	19%	35
Northern Illinois	−419	81%	31

Spread: Northern Illinois −15
Projected margin: Northern Illinois by 14.8

Off by18.8

Fri, Nov 28Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Air Force	−110	52%	42
Colorado State	+110	48%	21

Spread: Air Force −1
Projected margin: Air Force by 1.0

Off by20.0

Fri, Nov 28 · Neutral siteCorrect pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Georgia	−336	77%	16
Georgia Tech	+336	23%	9

Spread: Georgia −12.5
Projected margin: Georgia by 12.7

Off by5.7

Fri, Nov 28Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
San Diego State	+108	48%	17
New Mexico	−108	52%	23

Spread: New Mexico −1
Projected margin: New Mexico by 0.9

Off by5.1

Fri, Nov 28Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Temple	+779	11%	25
North Texas	−779	89%	52

Spread: North Texas −20.5
Projected margin: North Texas by 20.6

Off by6.4

Fri, Nov 28Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Boise State	−202	67%	25
Utah State	+202	33%	24

Spread: Boise State −7.5
Projected margin: Boise State by 7.5

Off by6.5

Fri, Nov 28Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Texas A&M	+118	46%	17
Texas	−118	54%	27

Spread: Texas −2
Projected margin: Texas by 1.8

Off by8.2

Fri, Nov 28Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Indiana	−7245	99%	56
Purdue	+7245	1%	3

Spread: Indiana −38
Projected margin: Indiana by 37.8

Off by15.2

Fri, Nov 28Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Arizona	+110	48%	23
Arizona State	−110	52%	7

Spread: Arizona State −1
Projected margin: Arizona State by 1.0

Off by17.0

Sat, Nov 29Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Kentucky	+157	39%	0
Louisville	−157	61%	41

Spread: Louisville −5
Projected margin: Louisville by 4.8

Off by36.2

Sat, Nov 29Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Clemson	+176	36%	28
South Carolina	−176	64%	14

Spread: South Carolina −6
Projected margin: South Carolina by 6.0

Off by20.0

Sat, Nov 29Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Ohio State	−518	84%	27
Michigan	+518	16%	9

Spread: Ohio State −17
Projected margin: Ohio State by 16.9

Off by1.1

Sat, Nov 29Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Miami	−401	80%	38
Pittsburgh	+401	20%	7

Spread: Miami −14.5
Projected margin: Miami by 14.4

Off by16.6

Sat, Nov 29Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Houston	+132	43%	31
Baylor	−132	57%	24

Spread: Baylor −3
Projected margin: Baylor by 2.9

Off by9.9

Sat, Nov 29Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Colorado	+272	27%	14
Kansas State	−272	73%	24

Spread: Kansas State −10.5
Projected margin: Kansas State by 10.6

Off by0.6

Sat, Nov 29Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Iowa State	−959	91%	20
Oklahoma State	+959	9%	13

Spread: Iowa State −22.5
Projected margin: Iowa State by 22.5

Off by15.5

Sat, Nov 29Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Texas Tech	−646	87%	49
West Virginia	+646	13%	0

Spread: Texas Tech −19
Projected margin: Texas Tech by 18.9

Off by30.1

Sat, Nov 29Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
East Carolina	−277	73%	42
Florida Atlantic	+277	27%	3

Spread: East Carolina −10.5
Projected margin: East Carolina by 10.7

Off by28.3

Sat, Nov 29Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Toledo	−271	73%	21
Central Michigan	+271	27%	3

Spread: Toledo −10.5
Projected margin: Toledo by 10.5

Off by7.5

Sat, Nov 29Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Ball State	+664	13%	24
Miami (OH)	−664	87%	45

Spread: Miami (OH) −19
Projected margin: Miami (OH) by 19.2

Off by1.8

Sat, Nov 29Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
UCF	+1003	9%	21
BYU	−1003	91%	41

Spread: BYU −23
Projected margin: BYU by 22.9

Off by2.9

Sat, Nov 29Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
UTEP	+145	41%	31
Delaware	−145	59%	61

Spread: Delaware −4
Projected margin: Delaware by 4.0

Off by26.0

Sat, Nov 29 · Neutral siteCorrect pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Florida International	−182	65%	56
Sam Houston	+182	35%	16

Spread: Florida International −6.5
Projected margin: Florida International by 6.4

Off by33.6

Sat, Nov 29Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Georgia Southern	+212	32%	24
Marshall	−212	68%	19

Spread: Marshall −8
Projected margin: Marshall by 8.0

Off by13.0

Sat, Nov 29Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Western Kentucky	−126	56%	34
Jacksonville State	+126	44%	37

Spread: Western Kentucky −2.5
Projected margin: Western Kentucky by 2.4

Off by5.4

Sat, Nov 29Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Louisiana Tech	+107	48%	42
Missouri State	−107	52%	30

Spread: Missouri State −0.5
Projected margin: Missouri State by 0.7

Off by12.7

Sat, Nov 29Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Georgia State	+1779	5%	10
Old Dominion	−1779	95%	27

Spread: Old Dominion −27.5
Projected margin: Old Dominion by 27.6

Off by10.6

Sat, Nov 29Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Arkansas State	+113	47%	30
App State	−113	53%	29

Spread: App State −1.5
Projected margin: App State by 1.3

Off by2.3

Sat, Nov 29Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Boston College	+124	45%	34
Syracuse	−124	55%	12

Spread: Syracuse −2.5
Projected margin: Syracuse by 2.3

Off by24.3

Sat, Nov 29Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Middle Tennessee	+209	32%	31
New Mexico State	−209	68%	24

Spread: New Mexico State −8
Projected margin: New Mexico State by 7.8

Off by14.8

Sat, Nov 29Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
UL Monroe	+360	22%	27
Louisiana	−360	78%	30

Spread: Louisiana −13.5
Projected margin: Louisiana by 13.3

Off by10.3

Sat, Nov 29Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
South Alabama	+263	28%	26
Texas State	−263	72%	49

Spread: Texas State −10
Projected margin: Texas State by 10.2

Off by12.8

Sat, Nov 29Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
UAB	+220	31%	31
Tulsa	−220	69%	24

Spread: Tulsa −8.5
Projected margin: Tulsa by 8.4

Off by15.4

Sat, Nov 29Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Missouri	−181	64%	31
Arkansas	+181	36%	17

Spread: Missouri −6.5
Projected margin: Missouri by 6.3

Off by7.7

Sat, Nov 29Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
LSU	+247	29%	13
Oklahoma	−247	71%	17

Spread: Oklahoma −9.5
Projected margin: Oklahoma by 9.6

Off by5.6

Sat, Nov 29Toss-up

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Vanderbilt	+101	50%	45
Tennessee	−101	50%	24

Spread: Pick'em
Projected margin: Tennessee by 0.1

Off by21.1

Sat, Nov 29Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Oregon	−223	69%	26
Washington	+223	31%	14

Spread: Oregon −8.5
Projected margin: Oregon by 8.5

Off by3.5

Sat, Nov 29Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Wisconsin	−115	53%	7
Minnesota	+115	47%	17

Spread: Wisconsin −1.5
Projected margin: Wisconsin by 1.5

Off by11.5

Sat, Nov 29Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Penn State	−430	81%	40
Rutgers	+430	19%	36

Spread: Penn State −15
Projected margin: Penn State by 15.1

Off by11.1

Sat, Nov 29Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Wake Forest	+150	40%	32
Duke	−150	60%	49

Spread: Duke −4.5
Projected margin: Duke by 4.3

Off by12.7

Sat, Nov 29Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Cincinnati	+214	32%	23
TCU	−214	68%	45

Spread: TCU −8
Projected margin: TCU by 8.0

Off by14.0

Sat, Nov 29Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Kennesaw State	+129	44%	48
Liberty	−129	56%	42

Spread: Liberty −2.5
Projected margin: Liberty by 2.7

Off by8.7

Sat, Nov 29Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Troy	−123	55%	28
Southern Miss	+123	45%	18

Spread: Troy −2
Projected margin: Troy by 2.2

Off by7.8

Sat, Nov 29Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Army	+131	43%	27
UTSA	−131	57%	24

Spread: UTSA −3
Projected margin: UTSA by 2.9

Off by5.9

Sat, Nov 29Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
James Madison	−747	88%	59
Coastal Carolina	+747	12%	10

Spread: James Madison −20.5
Projected margin: James Madison by 20.3

Off by28.7

Sat, Nov 29Toss-up

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Florida State	−102	50%	21
Florida	+102	50%	40

Spread: Pick'em
Projected margin: Florida State by 0.2

Off by19.2

Sat, Nov 29Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Oregon State	+456	18%	8
Washington State	−456	82%	32

Spread: Washington State −15.5
Projected margin: Washington State by 15.7

Off by8.3

Sat, Nov 29 · Neutral siteCorrect pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Maryland	+157	39%	28
Michigan State	−157	61%	38

Spread: Michigan State −5
Projected margin: Michigan State by 4.8

Off by5.2

Sat, Nov 29Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Virginia Tech	+273	27%	7
Virginia	−273	73%	27

Spread: Virginia −10.5
Projected margin: Virginia by 10.6

Off by9.4

Sat, Nov 29Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Rice	+1421	7%	3
South Florida	−1421	93%	52

Spread: South Florida −26
Projected margin: South Florida by 25.8

Off by23.2

Sat, Nov 29Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Alabama	−268	73%	27
Auburn	+268	27%	20

Spread: Alabama −10.5
Projected margin: Alabama by 10.4

Off by3.4

Sat, Nov 29Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
UCLA	+1294	7%	10
USC	−1294	93%	29

Spread: USC −25
Projected margin: USC by 25.0

Off by6.0

Sat, Nov 29Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Northwestern	+307	25%	13
Illinois	−307	75%	20

Spread: Illinois −12
Projected margin: Illinois by 11.8

Off by4.8

Sat, Nov 29Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
North Carolina	+264	27%	19
NC State	−264	73%	42

Spread: NC State −10
Projected margin: NC State by 10.2

Off by12.8

Sat, Nov 29Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Charlotte	+1965	5%	0
Tulane	−1965	95%	27

Spread: Tulane −28.5
Projected margin: Tulane by 28.4

Off by1.4

Sat, Nov 29Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
SMU	−553	85%	35
California	+553	15%	38

Spread: SMU −17.5
Projected margin: SMU by 17.5

Off by20.5

Sat, Nov 29Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
UNLV	−351	78%	42
Nevada	+351	22%	17

Spread: UNLV −13
Projected margin: UNLV by 13.1

Off by11.9

Sat, Nov 29Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Notre Dame	−6150	98%	49
Stanford	+6150	2%	20

Spread: Notre Dame −36.5
Projected margin: Notre Dame by 36.7

Off by7.7

Sat, Nov 29Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Fresno State	−124	55%	41
San José State	+124	45%	14

Spread: Fresno State −2.5
Projected margin: Fresno State by 2.3

Off by24.7

Sat, Nov 29Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Wyoming	+147	41%	7
Hawai'i	−147	59%	27

Spread: Hawai'i −4
Projected margin: Hawai'i by 4.1

Off by15.9

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