Archive

A history of our predictions. A model is only worth what its predictions are, so all of ours are made public after games end.

Were the model's chances right?

Every game is sorted by the chance that the Field Theory model gave each team to win. Each bar shows the amount of teams in that prediction range that actually won. When the model's chances are honest, the bar boundary ends up inside the shaded band.

How often the model's favorites won, by the chance it gave them
Model's chance for the favorite	Favorites won	Underdogs won
90% to 100% (underdog 0% to 10%)	96%	4%
80% to 90% (underdog 10% to 20%)	82%	18%
70% to 80% (underdog 20% to 30%)	76%	24%
60% to 70% (underdog 30% to 40%)	63%	37%
50% to 60% (underdog 40% to 50%)	50%	50%

76%Winners picked1148 of 1508 games, not including toss-ups

12.7Average missPoints between projected and final margin among FBS matchups

1522GamesFinal with a pregame prediction, all seasons

Click here to see Field Theory's advanced statistics.

Week 2

68 of 82 winners picked (83%) · average miss 11.8 pts

Fri, Sep 5Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
James Madison	+505	17%	14
Louisville	−505	83%	28

Spread: Louisville −16.5
Projected margin: Louisville by 16.6

Off by2.6

Fri, Sep 5Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Western Illinois	+11033	1%	7
Northwestern	−11033	99%	42

Spread: Northwestern −40.5
Projected margin: Northwestern by 40.5

Off by5.5

Fri, Sep 5Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Northern Illinois	+535	16%	9
Maryland	−535	84%	20

Spread: Maryland −17
Projected margin: Maryland by 17.2

Off by6.2

Fri, Sep 5Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Eastern Washington	+1025	9%	14
Boise State	−1025	91%	51

Spread: Boise State −23
Projected margin: Boise State by 23.0

Off by14.0

Sat, Sep 6Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
San José State	+11085	1%	7
Texas	−11085	99%	38

Spread: Texas −40.5
Projected margin: Texas by 40.5

Off by9.5

Sat, Sep 6Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Florida International	+19964	0%	0
Penn State	−19964	100%	34

Spread: Penn State −44
Projected margin: Penn State by 44.1

Off by10.1

Sat, Sep 6Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Kennesaw State	+99900	0%	9
Indiana	−99900	100%	56

Spread: Indiana −63
Projected margin: Indiana by 63.2

Off by16.2

Sat, Sep 6Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Northwestern State	+99900	0%	0
Minnesota	−99900	100%	66

Spread: Minnesota −62.5
Projected margin: Minnesota by 62.5

Off by3.5

Sat, Sep 6Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Iowa	+276	27%	13
Iowa State	−276	73%	16

Spread: Iowa State −10.5
Projected margin: Iowa State by 10.7

Off by7.7

Sat, Sep 6Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Illinois	−180	64%	45
Duke	+180	36%	19

Spread: Illinois −6.5
Projected margin: Illinois by 6.3

Off by19.7

Sat, Sep 6Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Virginia	−117	54%	31
NC State	+117	46%	35

Spread: Virginia −1.5
Projected margin: Virginia by 1.7

Off by5.7

Sat, Sep 6Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Baylor	+124	45%	48
SMU	−124	55%	45

Spread: SMU −2.5
Projected margin: SMU by 2.3

Off by5.3

Sat, Sep 6Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Central Michigan	+1394	7%	17
Pittsburgh	−1394	93%	45

Spread: Pittsburgh −25.5
Projected margin: Pittsburgh by 25.6

Off by2.4

Sat, Sep 6Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
UConn	+265	27%	20
Syracuse	−265	73%	27

Spread: Syracuse −10.5
Projected margin: Syracuse by 10.3

Off by3.3

Sat, Sep 6Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
East Texas A&M	+8469	1%	3
Florida State	−8469	99%	77

Spread: Florida State −39
Projected margin: Florida State by 38.8

Off by35.2

Sat, Sep 6Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Kent State	+32010	0%	14
Texas Tech	−32010	100%	62

Spread: Texas Tech −47
Projected margin: Texas Tech by 46.8

Off by1.2

Sat, Sep 6Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Liberty	+322	24%	24
Jacksonville State	−322	76%	34

Spread: Jacksonville State −12.5
Projected margin: Jacksonville State by 12.3

Off by2.3

Sat, Sep 6Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Utah State	+2924	3%	22
Texas A&M	−2924	97%	44

Spread: Texas A&M −31.5
Projected margin: Texas A&M by 31.4

Off by9.4

Sat, Sep 6Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Western Carolina	+1104	8%	10
Wake Forest	−1104	92%	42

Spread: Wake Forest −23.5
Projected margin: Wake Forest by 23.7

Off by8.3

Sat, Sep 6Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Howard	+5039	2%	7
Temple	−5039	98%	55

Spread: Temple −35.5
Projected margin: Temple by 35.3

Off by12.7

Sat, Sep 6Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Idaho State	+514	16%	22
New Mexico	−514	84%	32

Spread: New Mexico −17
Projected margin: New Mexico by 16.8

Off by6.8

Sat, Sep 6Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Austin Peay	+44041	0%	6
Georgia	−44041	100%	28

Spread: Georgia −48.5
Projected margin: Georgia by 48.5

Off by26.5

Sat, Sep 6Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Ole Miss	−755	88%	30
Kentucky	+755	12%	23

Spread: Ole Miss −20.5
Projected margin: Ole Miss by 20.4

Off by13.4

Sat, Sep 6Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Kansas	+148	40%	31
Missouri	−148	60%	42

Spread: Missouri −4
Projected margin: Missouri by 4.2

Off by6.8

Sat, Sep 6Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
East Tennessee State	+17164	1%	17
Tennessee	−17164	99%	72

Spread: Tennessee −43
Projected margin: Tennessee by 43.2

Off by11.8

Sat, Sep 6Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Grambling	+99900	0%	0
Ohio State	−99900	100%	70

Spread: Ohio State −73.5
Projected margin: Ohio State by 73.4

Off by3.4

Sat, Sep 6Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Miami (OH)	+355	22%	17
Rutgers	−355	78%	45

Spread: Rutgers −13
Projected margin: Rutgers by 13.2

Off by14.8

Sat, Sep 6Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Oklahoma State	+1289	7%	3
Oregon	−1289	93%	69

Spread: Oregon −25
Projected margin: Oregon by 25.0

Off by41.0

Sat, Sep 6Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Fresno State	−342	77%	36
Oregon State	+342	23%	27

Spread: Fresno State −13
Projected margin: Fresno State by 12.8

Off by3.8

Sat, Sep 6Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Gardner-Webb	+12916	1%	12
Georgia Tech	−12916	99%	59

Spread: Georgia Tech −41.5
Projected margin: Georgia Tech by 41.4

Off by5.6

Sat, Sep 6Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Troy	+1013	9%	16
Clemson	−1013	91%	27

Spread: Clemson −23
Projected margin: Clemson by 22.9

Off by11.9

Sat, Sep 6Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Bowling Green	+267	27%	20
Cincinnati	−267	73%	34

Spread: Cincinnati −10.5
Projected margin: Cincinnati by 10.4

Off by3.6

Sat, Sep 6Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Delaware	+4764	2%	7
Colorado	−4764	98%	31

Spread: Colorado −35
Projected margin: Colorado by 34.9

Off by10.9

Sat, Sep 6Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Lindenwood	+2597	4%	13
App State	−2597	96%	20

Spread: App State −30.5
Projected margin: App State by 30.5

Off by23.5

Sat, Sep 6Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Texas State	−181	64%	43
UTSA	+181	36%	36

Spread: Texas State −6.5
Projected margin: Texas State by 6.3

Off by0.7

Sat, Sep 6Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
UAB	+1454	6%	24
Navy	−1454	94%	38

Spread: Navy −26
Projected margin: Navy by 26.0

Off by12.0

Sat, Sep 6Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
North Texas	−270	73%	33
Western Michigan	+270	27%	30

Spread: North Texas −10.5
Projected margin: North Texas by 10.5

Off by7.5

Sat, Sep 6Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Saint Francis	+6435	2%	6
Buffalo	−6435	98%	45

Spread: Buffalo −37
Projected margin: Buffalo by 37.0

Off by2.0

Sat, Sep 6Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Bryant	+483	17%	27
Massachusetts	−483	83%	26

Spread: Massachusetts −16
Projected margin: Massachusetts by 16.2

Off by17.2

Sat, Sep 6Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Middle Tennessee	+17834	1%	10
Wisconsin	−17834	99%	42

Spread: Wisconsin −43.5
Projected margin: Wisconsin by 43.4

Off by11.4

Sat, Sep 6Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
West Virginia	+140	42%	10
Ohio	−140	58%	17

Spread: Ohio −3.5
Projected margin: Ohio by 3.6

Off by3.4

Sat, Sep 6Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Northern Iowa	+1393	7%	7
Wyoming	−1393	93%	31

Spread: Wyoming −25.5
Projected margin: Wyoming by 25.6

Off by1.6

Sat, Sep 6Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
South Florida	+763	12%	18
Florida	−763	88%	16

Spread: Florida −20.5
Projected margin: Florida by 20.5

Off by22.5

Sat, Sep 6 · Neutral siteCorrect pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Arkansas State	+996	9%	14
Arkansas	−996	91%	56

Spread: Arkansas −23
Projected margin: Arkansas by 22.8

Off by19.2

Sat, Sep 6Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Sacramento State	+276	27%	17
Nevada	−276	73%	20

Spread: Nevada −10.5
Projected margin: Nevada by 10.7

Off by7.7

Sat, Sep 6Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Jackson State	−109	52%	20
Southern Miss	+109	48%	38

Spread: Jackson State −1
Projected margin: Jackson State by 0.9

Off by18.9

Sat, Sep 6Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Texas Southern	+22365	0%	3
California	−22365	100%	35

Spread: California −44.5
Projected margin: California by 44.7

Off by12.7

Sat, Sep 6Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Cal Poly	+42992	0%	9
Utah	−42992	100%	63

Spread: Utah −48.5
Projected margin: Utah by 48.4

Off by5.6

Sat, Sep 6Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Missouri State	+1154	8%	21
Marshall	−1154	92%	20

Spread: Marshall −24
Projected margin: Marshall by 24.0

Off by25.0

Sat, Sep 6Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
North Carolina Central	+2664	4%	6
Old Dominion	−2664	96%	54

Spread: Old Dominion −30.5
Projected margin: Old Dominion by 30.7

Off by17.3

Sat, Sep 6Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Campbell	+5460	2%	3
East Carolina	−5460	98%	56

Spread: East Carolina −36
Projected margin: East Carolina by 35.9

Off by17.1

Sat, Sep 6Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Florida A&M	+1401	7%	14
Florida Atlantic	−1401	93%	56

Spread: Florida Atlantic −25.5
Projected margin: Florida Atlantic by 25.7

Off by16.3

Sat, Sep 6Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
South Carolina State	+57702	0%	10
South Carolina	−57702	100%	38

Spread: South Carolina −50
Projected margin: South Carolina by 50.0

Off by22.0

Sat, Sep 6Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
North Carolina	−328	77%	20
Charlotte	+328	23%	3

Spread: North Carolina −12.5
Projected margin: North Carolina by 12.4

Off by4.6

Sat, Sep 6Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Bethune-Cookman	+99900	0%	3
Miami	−99900	100%	45

Spread: Miami −70.5
Projected margin: Miami by 70.6

Off by28.6

Sat, Sep 6Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Army	+127	44%	24
Kansas State	−127	56%	21

Spread: Kansas State −2.5
Projected margin: Kansas State by 2.5

Off by5.5

Sat, Sep 6Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Houston	−266	73%	35
Rice	+266	27%	9

Spread: Houston −10.5
Projected margin: Houston by 10.3

Off by15.7

Sat, Sep 6Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
North Carolina A&T	+99900	0%	7
UCF	−99900	100%	68

Spread: UCF −54.5
Projected margin: UCF by 54.6

Off by6.4

Sat, Sep 6Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Western Kentucky	+157	39%	21
Toledo	−157	61%	45

Spread: Toledo −5
Projected margin: Toledo by 4.8

Off by19.2

Sat, Sep 6Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Northern Colorado	+5063	2%	17
Colorado State	−5063	98%	21

Spread: Colorado State −35.5
Projected margin: Colorado State by 35.3

Off by31.3

Sat, Sep 6Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Memphis	−368	79%	38
Georgia State	+368	21%	16

Spread: Memphis −13.5
Projected margin: Memphis by 13.6

Off by8.4

Sat, Sep 6Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Tulane	−266	73%	33
South Alabama	+266	27%	31

Spread: Tulane −10.5
Projected margin: Tulane by 10.3

Off by8.3

Sat, Sep 6Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Long Island University	+535	16%	28
Eastern Michigan	−535	84%	23

Spread: Eastern Michigan −17
Projected margin: Eastern Michigan by 17.2

Off by22.2

Sat, Sep 6Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Ball State	+9424	1%	3
Auburn	−9424	99%	42

Spread: Auburn −39.5
Projected margin: Auburn by 39.5

Off by0.5

Sat, Sep 6Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Louisiana Tech	+1971	5%	7
LSU	−1971	95%	23

Spread: LSU −28.5
Projected margin: LSU by 28.4

Off by12.4

Sat, Sep 6Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Arizona State	−445	82%	20
Mississippi State	+445	18%	24

Spread: Arizona State −15.5
Projected margin: Arizona State by 15.4

Off by19.4

Sat, Sep 6Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Michigan	−103	51%	13
Oklahoma	+103	49%	24

Spread: Michigan −0.5
Projected margin: Michigan by 0.3

Off by11.3

Sat, Sep 6Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Vanderbilt	+174	36%	44
Virginia Tech	−174	64%	20

Spread: Virginia Tech −6
Projected margin: Virginia Tech by 5.9

Off by29.9

Sat, Sep 6Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Akron	+2529	4%	0
Nebraska	−2529	96%	68

Spread: Nebraska −30.5
Projected margin: Nebraska by 30.3

Off by37.7

Sat, Sep 6Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Georgia Southern	+1631	6%	20
USC	−1631	94%	59

Spread: USC −27
Projected margin: USC by 26.9

Off by12.1

Sat, Sep 6Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Boston College	−104	51%	40
Michigan State	+104	49%	42

Spread: Boston College −0.5
Projected margin: Boston College by 0.4

Off by2.4

Sat, Sep 6Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Southern Illinois	+521	16%	17
Purdue	−521	84%	34

Spread: Purdue −17
Projected margin: Purdue by 16.9

Off by0.1

Sat, Sep 6Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Charleston Southern	+3943	2%	0
Coastal Carolina	−3943	98%	13

Spread: Coastal Carolina −33.5
Projected margin: Coastal Carolina by 33.6

Off by20.6

Sat, Sep 6Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
UL Monroe	+1480	6%	0
Alabama	−1480	94%	73

Spread: Alabama −26
Projected margin: Alabama by 26.1

Off by46.9

Sat, Sep 6Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
UCLA	+185	35%	23
UNLV	−185	65%	30

Spread: UNLV −6.5
Projected margin: UNLV by 6.5

Off by0.5

Sat, Sep 6Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
McNeese	+898	10%	10
Louisiana	−898	90%	34

Spread: Louisiana −22
Projected margin: Louisiana by 21.9

Off by2.1

Sat, Sep 6Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Tulsa	−165	62%	14
New Mexico State	+165	38%	21

Spread: Tulsa −5.5
Projected margin: Tulsa by 5.3

Off by12.3

Sat, Sep 6Toss-up

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
UT Martin	EVEN	50%	17
UTEP	EVEN	50%	42

Spread: Pick'em
Projected margin: Even

Off by25.0

Sat, Sep 6Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Weber State	+3890	3%	3
Arizona	−3890	97%	48

Spread: Arizona −33.5
Projected margin: Arizona by 33.5

Off by11.5

Sat, Sep 6Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
San Diego State	+376	21%	13
Washington State	−376	79%	36

Spread: Washington State −14
Projected margin: Washington State by 13.8

Off by9.2

Sat, Sep 6Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Stanford	+2603	4%	3
BYU	−2603	96%	27

Spread: BYU −30.5
Projected margin: BYU by 30.5

Off by6.5

Sat, Sep 6Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
UC Davis	+1050	9%	10
Washington	−1050	91%	70

Spread: Washington −23
Projected margin: Washington by 23.2

Off by36.8

Sat, Sep 6Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Sam Houston	−115	54%	20
Hawai'i	+115	46%	37

Spread: Sam Houston −1.5
Projected margin: Sam Houston by 1.5

Off by18.5

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