Archive

A history of our predictions. A model is only worth what its predictions are, so all of ours are made public after games end.

Were the model's chances right?

Every game is sorted by the chance that the Field Theory model gave each team to win. Each bar shows the amount of teams in that prediction range that actually won. When the model's chances are honest, the bar boundary ends up inside the shaded band.

How often the model's favorites won, by the chance it gave them
Model's chance for the favorite	Favorites won	Underdogs won
90% to 100% (underdog 0% to 10%)	96%	4%
80% to 90% (underdog 10% to 20%)	82%	18%
70% to 80% (underdog 20% to 30%)	76%	24%
60% to 70% (underdog 30% to 40%)	63%	37%
50% to 60% (underdog 40% to 50%)	50%	50%

76%Winners picked1148 of 1508 games, not including toss-ups

12.7Average missPoints between projected and final margin among FBS matchups

1522GamesFinal with a pregame prediction, all seasons

Click here to see Field Theory's advanced statistics.

Week 9

37 of 56 winners picked (66%) · average miss 15.6 pts

Tue, Oct 27Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Delaware	+206	33%	35
Western Kentucky	−206	67%	21

Spread: Western Kentucky −7.5
Projected margin: Western Kentucky by 7.6

Off by21.6

Tue, Oct 27Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Sam Houston	−115	53%	3
Missouri State	+115	47%	24

Spread: Sam Houston −1.5
Projected margin: Sam Houston by 1.4

Off by22.4

Wed, Oct 28Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Kennesaw State	+176	36%	44
Middle Tennessee	−176	64%	28

Spread: Middle Tennessee −6
Projected margin: Middle Tennessee by 5.9

Off by21.9

Wed, Oct 28Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Jacksonville State	−165	62%	24
New Mexico State	+165	38%	0

Spread: Jacksonville State −5
Projected margin: Jacksonville State by 5.2

Off by18.8

Thu, Oct 29Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Florida Atlantic	+529	16%	41
North Texas	−529	84%	48

Spread: North Texas −17
Projected margin: North Texas by 16.9

Off by9.9

Thu, Oct 29Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Troy	+860	10%	24
James Madison	−860	90%	21

Spread: James Madison −21
Projected margin: James Madison by 21.2

Off by24.2

Fri, Oct 30Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Tulane	−707	88%	38
Charlotte	+707	12%	31

Spread: Tulane −19.5
Projected margin: Tulane by 19.5

Off by12.5

Fri, Oct 30Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Baylor	+185	35%	41
UCF	−185	65%	9

Spread: UCF −6.5
Projected margin: UCF by 6.5

Off by38.5

Fri, Oct 30Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Kent State	−294	75%	10
Sacramento State	+294	25%	31

Spread: Kent State −11
Projected margin: Kent State by 11.2

Off by32.2

Sat, Oct 31Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Arizona	+110	48%	26
Texas Tech	−110	52%	34

Spread: Texas Tech −1
Projected margin: Texas Tech by 1.0

Off by7.0

Sat, Oct 31Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
California	+296	25%	10
NC State	−296	75%	31

Spread: NC State −11.5
Projected margin: NC State by 11.3

Off by9.7

Sat, Oct 31Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
SMU	−171	63%	27
Syracuse	+171	37%	30

Spread: SMU −5.5
Projected margin: SMU by 5.6

Off by8.6

Sat, Oct 31Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Boston College	+409	20%	2
Duke	−409	80%	47

Spread: Duke −14.5
Projected margin: Duke by 14.4

Off by30.6

Sat, Oct 31Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Wisconsin	−209	68%	0
Iowa	+209	32%	30

Spread: Wisconsin −7.5
Projected margin: Wisconsin by 7.7

Off by37.7

Sat, Oct 31Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Illinois	−200	67%	20
Maryland	+200	33%	17

Spread: Illinois −7.5
Projected margin: Illinois by 7.3

Off by4.3

Sat, Oct 31 · Neutral siteCorrect pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Notre Dame	−10267	99%	35
Navy	+10267	1%	13

Spread: Notre Dame −39.5
Projected margin: Notre Dame by 39.5

Off by17.5

Sat, Oct 31Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
UAB	+362	22%	10
South Florida	−362	78%	30

Spread: South Florida −13
Projected margin: South Florida by 13.2

Off by6.8

Sat, Oct 31Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Bowling Green	+1049	9%	10
Western Michigan	−1049	91%	23

Spread: Western Michigan −23
Projected margin: Western Michigan by 22.9

Off by9.9

Sat, Oct 31Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Michigan	−330	77%	28
Rutgers	+330	23%	21

Spread: Michigan −12.5
Projected margin: Michigan by 12.3

Off by5.3

Sat, Oct 31Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Auburn	+366	21%	15
Ole Miss	−366	79%	45

Spread: Ole Miss −13.5
Projected margin: Ole Miss by 13.4

Off by16.6

Sat, Oct 31Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Marshall	+137	42%	36
Old Dominion	−137	58%	23

Spread: Old Dominion −3.5
Projected margin: Old Dominion by 3.3

Off by16.3

Sat, Oct 31Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Kansas State	−205	67%	24
Colorado	+205	33%	27

Spread: Kansas State −7.5
Projected margin: Kansas State by 7.5

Off by10.5

Sat, Oct 31Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Coastal Carolina	+345	22%	31
Georgia State	−345	78%	20

Spread: Georgia State −13
Projected margin: Georgia State by 12.8

Off by23.8

Sat, Oct 31Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
UConn	+174	36%	26
Air Force	−174	64%	35

Spread: Air Force −6
Projected margin: Air Force by 5.8

Off by3.2

Sat, Oct 31Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Temple	+142	41%	9
East Carolina	−142	59%	17

Spread: East Carolina −3.5
Projected margin: East Carolina by 3.7

Off by4.3

Sat, Oct 31Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Louisiana Tech	−134	57%	35
South Alabama	+134	43%	20

Spread: Louisiana Tech −3
Projected margin: Louisiana Tech by 3.1

Off by11.9

Sat, Oct 31Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Stanford	+4167	2%	24
Louisville	−4167	98%	52

Spread: Louisville −33.5
Projected margin: Louisville by 33.5

Off by5.5

Sat, Oct 31 · Neutral siteCorrect pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Florida	+237	30%	8
Georgia	−237	70%	27

Spread: Georgia −9
Projected margin: Georgia by 9.0

Off by10.0

Sat, Oct 31Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Arizona State	+1284	7%	20
BYU	−1284	93%	27

Spread: BYU −24.5
Projected margin: BYU by 24.6

Off by17.6

Sat, Oct 31Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Kansas	+216	32%	16
TCU	−216	68%	22

Spread: TCU −8
Projected margin: TCU by 8.1

Off by2.1

Sat, Oct 31Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Minnesota	+4327	2%	16
Indiana	−4327	98%	23

Spread: Indiana −34
Projected margin: Indiana by 33.8

Off by26.8

Sat, Oct 31Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Northwestern	+133	43%	26
Oregon	−133	57%	34

Spread: Oregon −3
Projected margin: Oregon by 3.0

Off by5.0

Sat, Oct 31Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Colorado State	+167	37%	14
Utah State	−167	63%	31

Spread: Utah State −5.5
Projected margin: Utah State by 5.4

Off by11.6

Sat, Oct 31Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
UTEP	+10482	1%	7
North Dakota State	−10482	99%	31

Spread: North Dakota State −39.5
Projected margin: North Dakota State by 39.6

Off by15.6

Sat, Oct 31Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Florida International	+530	16%	10
Liberty	−530	84%	49

Spread: Liberty −17
Projected margin: Liberty by 16.9

Off by22.1

Sat, Oct 31Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Southern Miss	−212	68%	35
UL Monroe	+212	32%	21

Spread: Southern Miss −8
Projected margin: Southern Miss by 7.9

Off by6.1

Sat, Oct 31Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Utah	−173	63%	49
Cincinnati	+173	37%	25

Spread: Utah −6
Projected margin: Utah by 5.8

Off by18.2

Sat, Oct 31Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Virginia	+935	10%	7
Wake Forest	−935	90%	51

Spread: Wake Forest −22
Projected margin: Wake Forest by 22.0

Off by22.0

Sat, Oct 31Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
New Mexico	−851	89%	21
San José State	+851	11%	16

Spread: New Mexico −21
Projected margin: New Mexico by 21.1

Off by16.1

Sat, Oct 31Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
South Carolina	+167	37%	42
Oklahoma	−167	63%	25

Spread: Oklahoma −5.5
Projected margin: Oklahoma by 5.4

Off by22.4

Sat, Oct 31Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Purdue	+232	30%	17
Penn State	−232	70%	31

Spread: Penn State −9
Projected margin: Penn State by 8.8

Off by5.2

Sat, Oct 31Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Nevada	+3589	3%	0
UCLA	−3589	97%	27

Spread: UCLA −32.5
Projected margin: UCLA by 32.5

Off by5.5

Sat, Oct 31Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
App State	+210	32%	3
Georgia Southern	−210	68%	19

Spread: Georgia Southern −8
Projected margin: Georgia Southern by 7.8

Off by8.2

Sat, Oct 31Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Oklahoma State	−267	73%	49
Iowa State	+267	27%	51

Spread: Oklahoma State −10
Projected margin: Oklahoma State by 10.2

Off by12.2

Sat, Oct 31Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Clemson	+475	17%	36
Florida State	−475	83%	24

Spread: Florida State −16
Projected margin: Florida State by 15.8

Off by27.8

Sat, Oct 31Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Washington State	−117	54%	20
San Diego State	+117	46%	26

Spread: Washington State −1.5
Projected margin: Washington State by 1.6

Off by7.6

Sat, Oct 31Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Mississippi State	+718	12%	3
Texas	−718	88%	31

Spread: Texas −19.5
Projected margin: Texas by 19.6

Off by8.4

Sat, Oct 31Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Georgia Tech	+981	9%	11
Pittsburgh	−981	91%	34

Spread: Pittsburgh −22.5
Projected margin: Pittsburgh by 22.4

Off by0.6

Sat, Oct 31Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Miami	−346	78%	38
North Carolina	+346	22%	35

Spread: Miami −13
Projected margin: Miami by 12.8

Off by9.8

Sat, Oct 31Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Ohio State	−220	69%	18
USC	+220	31%	30

Spread: Ohio State −8
Projected margin: Ohio State by 8.2

Off by20.2

Sat, Oct 31Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Missouri	−385	79%	34
Arkansas	+385	21%	10

Spread: Missouri −14
Projected margin: Missouri by 13.8

Off by10.2

Sat, Oct 31Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Washington	+1157	8%	17
Nebraska	−1157	92%	10

Spread: Nebraska −24
Projected margin: Nebraska by 23.8

Off by30.8

Sat, Oct 31Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Army	−105	51%	22
Memphis	+105	49%	49

Spread: Army −0.5
Projected margin: Army by 0.6

Off by27.6

Sat, Oct 31Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Texas State	+733	12%	45
Boise State	−733	88%	46

Spread: Boise State −20
Projected margin: Boise State by 19.8

Off by18.8

Sat, Oct 31Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Northern Illinois	+2303	4%	24
UNLV	−2303	96%	31

Spread: UNLV −29
Projected margin: UNLV by 29.2

Off by22.2

Sat, Oct 31Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Oregon State	−402	80%	22
Fresno State	+402	20%	38

Spread: Oregon State −14
Projected margin: Oregon State by 14.2

Off by30.2

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