Archive

A history of our predictions. A model is only worth what its predictions are, so all of ours are made public after games end.

Were the model's chances right?

Every game is sorted by the chance that the Field Theory model gave each team to win. Each bar shows the amount of teams in that prediction range that actually won. When the model's chances are honest, the bar boundary ends up inside the shaded band.

How often the model's favorites won, by the chance it gave them
Model's chance for the favorite	Favorites won	Underdogs won
90% to 100% (underdog 0% to 10%)	96%	4%
80% to 90% (underdog 10% to 20%)	82%	18%
70% to 80% (underdog 20% to 30%)	76%	24%
60% to 70% (underdog 30% to 40%)	63%	37%
50% to 60% (underdog 40% to 50%)	50%	50%

76%Winners picked1148 of 1508 games, not including toss-ups

12.7Average missPoints between projected and final margin among FBS matchups

1522GamesFinal with a pregame prediction, all seasons

Click here to see Field Theory's advanced statistics.

Week 5

44 of 59 winners picked (75%) · average miss 14.0 pts

Thu, Oct 1Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Western Kentucky	−153	60%	13
New Mexico State	+153	40%	34

Spread: Western Kentucky −4.5
Projected margin: Western Kentucky by 4.4

Off by25.4

Thu, Oct 1Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
North Texas	−449	82%	45
Tulsa	+449	18%	44

Spread: North Texas −15
Projected margin: North Texas by 15.2

Off by14.2

Fri, Oct 2Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Pittsburgh	−244	71%	35
Virginia Tech	+244	29%	33

Spread: Pittsburgh −9
Projected margin: Pittsburgh by 9.2

Off by7.2

Fri, Oct 2Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Liberty	+105	49%	30
Delaware	−105	51%	14

Spread: Delaware −0.5
Projected margin: Delaware by 0.6

Off by16.6

Fri, Oct 2Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Penn State	−121	55%	13
Northwestern	+121	45%	34

Spread: Penn State −2
Projected margin: Penn State by 2.0

Off by23.0

Sat, Oct 3Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Memphis	−1099	92%	59
Charlotte	+1099	8%	8

Spread: Memphis −23
Projected margin: Memphis by 23.1

Off by27.9

Sat, Oct 3Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Alabama	−273	73%	56
Mississippi State	+273	27%	23

Spread: Alabama −10.5
Projected margin: Alabama by 10.4

Off by22.6

Sat, Oct 3Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Middle Tennessee	+757	12%	0
Kansas	−757	88%	55

Spread: Kansas −20
Projected margin: Kansas by 19.9

Off by35.1

Sat, Oct 3Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
UCF	+342	23%	17
Houston	−342	77%	27

Spread: Houston −12.5
Projected margin: Houston by 12.6

Off by2.6

Sat, Oct 3Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
West Virginia	+377	21%	42
Iowa State	−377	79%	45

Spread: Iowa State −13.5
Projected margin: Iowa State by 13.5

Off by10.5

Sat, Oct 3Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Boston College	+1338	7%	16
SMU	−1338	93%	25

Spread: SMU −25
Projected margin: SMU by 24.8

Off by15.8

Sat, Oct 3Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Notre Dame	−5598	98%	37
North Carolina	+5598	2%	26

Spread: Notre Dame −35.5
Projected margin: Notre Dame by 35.3

Off by24.3

Sat, Oct 3Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Stanford	+518	16%	3
Wake Forest	−518	84%	57

Spread: Wake Forest −16.5
Projected margin: Wake Forest by 16.5

Off by37.5

Sat, Oct 3Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Syracuse	+168	37%	42
UConn	−168	63%	41

Spread: UConn −5.5
Projected margin: UConn by 5.4

Off by6.4

Sat, Oct 3Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Michigan	−386	79%	14
Minnesota	+386	21%	20

Spread: Michigan −13.5
Projected margin: Michigan by 13.7

Off by19.7

Sat, Oct 3Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Navy	+151	40%	9
Air Force	−151	60%	14

Spread: Air Force −4.5
Projected margin: Air Force by 4.3

Off by0.7

Sat, Oct 3Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Michigan State	+197	34%	3
Wisconsin	−197	66%	31

Spread: Wisconsin −7
Projected margin: Wisconsin by 7.1

Off by20.9

Sat, Oct 3Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Vanderbilt	+413	19%	14
Georgia	−413	81%	38

Spread: Georgia −14.5
Projected margin: Georgia by 14.4

Off by9.6

Sat, Oct 3Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Western Michigan	−777	89%	20
Buffalo	+777	11%	17

Spread: Western Michigan −20
Projected margin: Western Michigan by 20.2

Off by17.2

Sat, Oct 3Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Toledo	−1304	93%	39
Ball State	+1304	7%	24

Spread: Toledo −24.5
Projected margin: Toledo by 24.5

Off by9.5

Sat, Oct 3Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Florida	−166	62%	17
Missouri	+166	38%	45

Spread: Florida −5.5
Projected margin: Florida by 5.3

Off by33.3

Sat, Oct 3Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Auburn	+250	29%	14
Tennessee	−250	71%	24

Spread: Tennessee −9.5
Projected margin: Tennessee by 9.5

Off by0.5

Sat, Oct 3Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
California	+229	30%	31
UNLV	−229	70%	39

Spread: UNLV −8.5
Projected margin: UNLV by 8.6

Off by0.6

Sat, Oct 3Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Louisville	+106	48%	28
NC State	−106	52%	31

Spread: NC State −0.5
Projected margin: NC State by 0.6

Off by2.4

Sat, Oct 3Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Virginia	+107	48%	7
Florida State	−107	52%	38

Spread: Florida State −0.5
Projected margin: Florida State by 0.7

Off by30.3

Sat, Oct 3Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Ohio State	−327	77%	31
Iowa	+327	23%	14

Spread: Ohio State −12
Projected margin: Ohio State by 12.1

Off by4.9

Sat, Oct 3Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Samford	+956	9%	14
UAB	−956	91%	33

Spread: UAB −22
Projected margin: UAB by 22.0

Off by3.0

Sat, Oct 3Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Wyoming	+2520	4%	0
North Dakota State	−2520	96%	28

Spread: North Dakota State −29.5
Projected margin: North Dakota State by 29.7

Off by1.7

Sat, Oct 3Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Akron	+301	25%	17
Central Michigan	−301	75%	41

Spread: Central Michigan −11.5
Projected margin: Central Michigan by 11.3

Off by12.7

Sat, Oct 3Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Eastern Michigan	+180	36%	38
Massachusetts	−180	64%	14

Spread: Massachusetts −6
Projected margin: Massachusetts by 6.1

Off by30.1

Sat, Oct 3Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Ohio	−247	71%	13
Kent State	+247	29%	10

Spread: Ohio −9.5
Projected margin: Ohio by 9.3

Off by6.3

Sat, Oct 3Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Bowling Green	+602	14%	24
Miami (OH)	−602	86%	20

Spread: Miami (OH) −18
Projected margin: Miami (OH) by 17.9

Off by21.9

Sat, Oct 3Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Old Dominion	−115	54%	10
Georgia State	+115	46%	42

Spread: Old Dominion −1.5
Projected margin: Old Dominion by 1.5

Off by33.5

Sat, Oct 3Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Marshall	+1403	7%	17
James Madison	−1403	93%	45

Spread: James Madison −25
Projected margin: James Madison by 25.1

Off by2.9

Sat, Oct 3Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Maryland	+1492	6%	23
Nebraska	−1492	94%	48

Spread: Nebraska −25.5
Projected margin: Nebraska by 25.6

Off by0.6

Sat, Oct 3Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
UTEP	+2995	3%	7
New Mexico	−2995	97%	61

Spread: New Mexico −31
Projected margin: New Mexico by 30.9

Off by23.1

Sat, Oct 3Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Kentucky	−135	57%	35
South Carolina	+135	43%	34

Spread: Kentucky −3
Projected margin: Kentucky by 3.1

Off by2.1

Sat, Oct 3Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Purdue	+590	14%	24
Illinois	−590	86%	17

Spread: Illinois −17.5
Projected margin: Illinois by 17.7

Off by24.7

Sat, Oct 3Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Oregon State	−194	66%	56
Colorado State	+194	34%	26

Spread: Oregon State −7
Projected margin: Oregon State by 6.9

Off by23.1

Sat, Oct 3Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Texas Southern	+2389	4%	10
Florida Atlantic	−2389	96%	66

Spread: Florida Atlantic −29.5
Projected margin: Florida Atlantic by 29.3

Off by26.7

Sat, Oct 3Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Arkansas	+785	11%	7
Texas A&M	−785	89%	34

Spread: Texas A&M −20.5
Projected margin: Texas A&M by 20.3

Off by6.7

Sat, Oct 3Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
BYU	−180	64%	17
TCU	+180	36%	10

Spread: BYU −6
Projected margin: BYU by 6.1

Off by0.9

Sat, Oct 3Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
UTSA	−645	87%	16
Rice	+645	13%	14

Spread: UTSA −18.5
Projected margin: UTSA by 18.5

Off by16.5

Sat, Oct 3Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Georgia Southern	−104	51%	31
Coastal Carolina	+104	49%	24

Spread: Georgia Southern −0.5
Projected margin: Georgia Southern by 0.5

Off by6.5

Sat, Oct 3Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
UL Monroe	+887	10%	35
South Alabama	−887	90%	52

Spread: South Alabama −21.5
Projected margin: South Alabama by 21.3

Off by4.3

Sat, Oct 3Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Texas Tech	−1039	91%	29
Colorado	+1039	9%	7

Spread: Texas Tech −22.5
Projected margin: Texas Tech by 22.7

Off by0.7

Sat, Oct 3Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Miami	−1251	93%	41
Clemson	+1251	7%	13

Spread: Miami −24
Projected margin: Miami by 24.2

Off by3.8

Sat, Oct 3Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Washington	+389	20%	21
USC	−389	80%	25

Spread: USC −14
Projected margin: USC by 13.8

Off by9.8

Sat, Oct 3Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Utah State	+787	11%	18
Boise State	−787	89%	37

Spread: Boise State −20.5
Projected margin: Boise State by 20.3

Off by1.3

Sat, Oct 3Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Temple	+490	17%	17
South Florida	−490	83%	13

Spread: South Florida −16
Projected margin: South Florida by 16.0

Off by20.0

Sat, Oct 3Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Army	−131	57%	29
Louisiana Tech	+131	43%	31

Spread: Army −3
Projected margin: Army by 2.8

Off by4.8

Sat, Oct 3Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
McNeese	+68729	0%	14
LSU	−68729	100%	63

Spread: LSU −50
Projected margin: LSU by 49.8

Off by0.8

Sat, Oct 3Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Indiana	−7049	99%	47
Rutgers	+7049	1%	15

Spread: Indiana −37
Projected margin: Indiana by 36.8

Off by4.8

Sat, Oct 3Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Arkansas State	+172	37%	20
Louisiana	−172	63%	23

Spread: Louisiana −5.5
Projected margin: Louisiana by 5.6

Off by2.6

Sat, Oct 3Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Fresno State	+229	30%	26
Washington State	−229	70%	6

Spread: Washington State −8.5
Projected margin: Washington State by 8.6

Off by28.6

Sat, Oct 3Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Baylor	+125	44%	55
Arizona State	−125	56%	19

Spread: Arizona State −2.5
Projected margin: Arizona State by 2.4

Off by38.4

Sat, Oct 3Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Texas State	+106	49%	29
San Diego State	−106	51%	31

Spread: San Diego State −0.5
Projected margin: San Diego State by 0.6

Off by1.4

Sat, Oct 3Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Cincinnati	+156	39%	7
Arizona	−156	61%	34

Spread: Arizona −4.5
Projected margin: Arizona by 4.7

Off by22.3

Sat, Oct 3Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
San José State	+169	37%	20
Hawai'i	−169	63%	16

Spread: Hawai'i −5.5
Projected margin: Hawai'i by 5.5

Off by9.5

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