Archive

A history of our predictions. A model is only worth what its predictions are, so all of ours are made public after games end.

Were the model's chances right?

Every game is sorted by the chance that the Field Theory model gave each team to win. Each bar shows the amount of teams in that prediction range that actually won. When the model's chances are honest, the bar boundary ends up inside the shaded band.

How often the model's favorites won, by the chance it gave them
Model's chance for the favorite	Favorites won	Underdogs won
90% to 100% (underdog 0% to 10%)	96%	4%
80% to 90% (underdog 10% to 20%)	82%	18%
70% to 80% (underdog 20% to 30%)	76%	24%
60% to 70% (underdog 30% to 40%)	63%	37%
50% to 60% (underdog 40% to 50%)	50%	50%

76%Winners picked1148 of 1508 games, not including toss-ups

12.7Average missPoints between projected and final margin among FBS matchups

1522GamesFinal with a pregame prediction, all seasons

Click here to see Field Theory's advanced statistics.

Week 3

65 of 74 winners picked (88%) · average miss 10.8 pts

Thu, Sep 17Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Syracuse	+873	10%	13
Pittsburgh	−873	90%	27

Spread: Pittsburgh −21
Projected margin: Pittsburgh by 21.2

Off by7.2

Fri, Sep 18Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Miami	−1098	92%	33
Wake Forest	+1098	8%	20

Spread: Miami −23
Projected margin: Miami by 23.1

Off by10.1

Fri, Sep 18Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Houston	+419	19%	26
Texas Tech	−419	81%	28

Spread: Texas Tech −14.5
Projected margin: Texas Tech by 14.5

Off by12.5

Fri, Sep 18Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Portland State	+99900	0%	0
Oregon	−99900	100%	84

Spread: Oregon −54.5
Projected margin: Oregon by 54.5

Off by29.5

Sat, Sep 19Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Coastal Carolina	+224	31%	14
Delaware	−224	69%	22

Spread: Delaware −8.5
Projected margin: Delaware by 8.4

Off by0.4

Sat, Sep 19Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Georgia	−573	85%	45
Arkansas	+573	15%	17

Spread: Georgia −17.5
Projected margin: Georgia by 17.4

Off by10.6

Sat, Sep 19Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Tulane	+839	11%	20
Kansas State	−839	89%	31

Spread: Kansas State −21
Projected margin: Kansas State by 20.8

Off by9.8

Sat, Sep 19Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Bowling Green	+7283	1%	7
Iowa State	−7283	99%	55

Spread: Iowa State −37
Projected margin: Iowa State by 37.0

Off by11.0

Sat, Sep 19 · Neutral siteCorrect pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Arizona State	−107	52%	24
Kansas	+107	48%	17

Spread: Arizona State −0.5
Projected margin: Arizona State by 0.7

Off by6.3

Sat, Sep 19Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Mercer	+654	13%	11
Georgia Tech	−654	87%	44

Spread: Georgia Tech −18.5
Projected margin: Georgia Tech by 18.6

Off by14.4

Sat, Sep 19Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
North Carolina	+150	40%	20
Clemson	−150	60%	28

Spread: Clemson −4.5
Projected margin: Clemson by 4.3

Off by3.7

Sat, Sep 19Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Akron	+521	16%	7
Minnesota	−521	84%	41

Spread: Minnesota −16.5
Projected margin: Minnesota by 16.6

Off by17.4

Sat, Sep 19Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Kent State	+99900	0%	3
Ohio State	−99900	100%	59

Spread: Ohio State −55
Projected margin: Ohio State by 55.1

Off by0.9

Sat, Sep 19Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Buffalo	+35645	0%	13
Penn State	−35645	100%	55

Spread: Penn State −46.5
Projected margin: Penn State by 46.4

Off by4.4

Sat, Sep 19Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
North Texas	−652	87%	35
Texas State	+652	13%	49

Spread: North Texas −18.5
Projected margin: North Texas by 18.6

Off by32.6

Sat, Sep 19Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Eastern Michigan	+1832	5%	10
Wisconsin	−1832	95%	54

Spread: Wisconsin −27
Projected margin: Wisconsin by 27.2

Off by16.8

Sat, Sep 19Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
NC State	+254	28%	31
Vanderbilt	−254	72%	35

Spread: Vanderbilt −9.5
Projected margin: Vanderbilt by 9.6

Off by5.6

Sat, Sep 19Toss-up

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Wyoming	+101	50%	10
Central Michigan	−101	50%	24

Spread: Pick'em
Projected margin: Central Michigan by 0.1

Off by13.9

Sat, Sep 19Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Maine	+3971	2%	16
Boston College	−3971	98%	22

Spread: Boston College −33
Projected margin: Boston College by 32.9

Off by26.9

Sat, Sep 19Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Southern Illinois	+1707	6%	10
Illinois	−1707	94%	48

Spread: Illinois −26.5
Projected margin: Illinois by 26.7

Off by11.3

Sat, Sep 19Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Temple	+275	27%	48
Toledo	−275	73%	49

Spread: Toledo −10.5
Projected margin: Toledo by 10.4

Off by9.4

Sat, Sep 19Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Florida State	+740	12%	36
Alabama	−740	88%	50

Spread: Alabama −19.5
Projected margin: Alabama by 19.7

Off by5.7

Sat, Sep 19Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Kentucky	+1130	8%	31
Texas A&M	−1130	92%	21

Spread: Texas A&M −23.5
Projected margin: Texas A&M by 23.4

Off by33.4

Sat, Sep 19Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Miami (OH)	+1008	9%	31
Cincinnati	−1008	91%	35

Spread: Cincinnati −22.5
Projected margin: Cincinnati by 22.4

Off by18.4

Sat, Sep 19Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Utah State	+5125	2%	0
Utah	−5125	98%	33

Spread: Utah −34.5
Projected margin: Utah by 34.7

Off by1.7

Sat, Sep 19Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
SMU	−102	51%	31
Louisville	+102	49%	41

Spread: Pick'em
Projected margin: SMU by 0.2

Off by10.2

Sat, Sep 19Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Wagner	+32591	0%	7
California	−32591	100%	49

Spread: California −46
Projected margin: California by 45.9

Off by3.9

Sat, Sep 19Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
UTEP	+10388	1%	17
Michigan	−10388	99%	52

Spread: Michigan −39
Projected margin: Michigan by 39.2

Off by4.2

Sat, Sep 19Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
USC	−2659	96%	42
Rutgers	+2659	4%	35

Spread: USC −30
Projected margin: USC by 30.1

Off by23.1

Sat, Sep 19Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Duquesne	+99900	0%	7
Washington State	−99900	100%	48

Spread: Washington State −54
Projected margin: Washington State by 54.0

Off by13.0

Sat, Sep 19Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Stonehill	+1841	5%	14
Massachusetts	−1841	95%	36

Spread: Massachusetts −27.5
Projected margin: Massachusetts by 27.3

Off by5.3

Sat, Sep 19Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Stanford	+523	16%	7
Duke	−523	84%	35

Spread: Duke −16.5
Projected margin: Duke by 16.6

Off by11.4

Sat, Sep 19Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Western Kentucky	+86523	0%	0
Indiana	−86523	100%	38

Spread: Indiana −51
Projected margin: Indiana by 51.0

Off by13.0

Sat, Sep 19Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Northern Iowa	+16002	1%	0
Iowa	−16002	99%	55

Spread: Iowa −42
Projected margin: Iowa by 41.8

Off by13.2

Sat, Sep 19Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Ball State	+232	30%	15
Liberty	−232	70%	51

Spread: Liberty −8.5
Projected margin: Liberty by 8.7

Off by27.3

Sat, Sep 19Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Louisiana Tech	+616	14%	19
Baylor	−616	86%	36

Spread: Baylor −18
Projected margin: Baylor by 18.1

Off by1.1

Sat, Sep 19Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Mississippi State	−106	51%	41
South Carolina	+106	49%	34

Spread: Mississippi State −0.5
Projected margin: Mississippi State by 0.6

Off by6.4

Sat, Sep 19Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
SE Louisiana	+120	45%	38
UL Monroe	−120	55%	35

Spread: UL Monroe −2
Projected margin: UL Monroe by 1.9

Off by4.9

Sat, Sep 19Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
East Carolina	−127	56%	20
Old Dominion	+127	44%	17

Spread: East Carolina −2.5
Projected margin: East Carolina by 2.5

Off by0.5

Sat, Sep 19Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Florida International	+117	46%	10
Florida Atlantic	−117	54%	16

Spread: Florida Atlantic −1.5
Projected margin: Florida Atlantic by 1.6

Off by4.4

Sat, Sep 19Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Charlotte	+889	10%	21
App State	−889	90%	26

Spread: App State −21.5
Projected margin: App State by 21.3

Off by16.3

Sat, Sep 19Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Marshall	+218	31%	30
Missouri State	−218	69%	24

Spread: Missouri State −8
Projected margin: Missouri State by 8.1

Off by14.1

Sat, Sep 19Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Florida	+122	45%	44
Auburn	−122	55%	39

Spread: Auburn −2
Projected margin: Auburn by 2.1

Off by7.1

Sat, Sep 19Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Troy	+5863	2%	17
Missouri	−5863	98%	27

Spread: Missouri −35.5
Projected margin: Missouri by 35.6

Off by25.6

Sat, Sep 19Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Georgia State	+1119	8%	30
UCF	−1119	92%	44

Spread: UCF −23.5
Projected margin: UCF by 23.3

Off by9.3

Sat, Sep 19Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Murray State	+25694	0%	0
Oklahoma State	−25694	100%	59

Spread: Oklahoma State −44.5
Projected margin: Oklahoma State by 44.6

Off by14.4

Sat, Sep 19Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
UConn	−112	53%	48
Southern Miss	+112	47%	20

Spread: UConn −1
Projected margin: UConn by 1.2

Off by26.8

Sat, Sep 19Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
UT Martin	+6946	1%	21
Memphis	−6946	99%	45

Spread: Memphis −36.5
Projected margin: Memphis by 36.7

Off by12.7

Sat, Sep 19Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Western Michigan	−571	85%	28
Rice	+571	15%	21

Spread: Western Michigan −17.5
Projected margin: Western Michigan by 17.4

Off by10.4

Sat, Sep 19Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Delaware State	+69928	0%	17
South Florida	−69928	100%	59

Spread: South Florida −50
Projected margin: South Florida by 49.9

Off by7.9

Sat, Sep 19Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Nevada	−145	59%	20
Middle Tennessee	+145	41%	27

Spread: Nevada −4
Projected margin: Nevada by 3.9

Off by10.9

Sat, Sep 19Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Ohio	+159	39%	36
South Alabama	−159	61%	41

Spread: South Alabama −5
Projected margin: South Alabama by 4.8

Off by0.2

Sat, Sep 19Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Georgia Southern	+203	33%	27
Jacksonville State	−203	67%	31

Spread: Jacksonville State −7.5
Projected margin: Jacksonville State by 7.4

Off by3.4

Sat, Sep 19Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Nicholls	+420	19%	0
Sam Houston	−420	81%	59

Spread: Sam Houston −14.5
Projected margin: Sam Houston by 14.6

Off by44.4

Sat, Sep 19Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
North Dakota	+1206	8%	7
Nebraska	−1206	92%	34

Spread: Nebraska −24
Projected margin: Nebraska by 23.9

Off by3.1

Sat, Sep 19Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Eastern Washington	+10613	1%	16
Washington	−10613	99%	48

Spread: Washington −39.5
Projected margin: Washington by 39.4

Off by7.4

Sat, Sep 19Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
LSU	+176	36%	24
Ole Miss	−176	64%	32

Spread: Ole Miss −6
Projected margin: Ole Miss by 5.9

Off by2.1

Sat, Sep 19Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
New Mexico	+930	10%	6
Oklahoma	−930	90%	14

Spread: Oklahoma −21.5
Projected margin: Oklahoma by 21.7

Off by13.7

Sat, Sep 19Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
BYU	−777	89%	41
Colorado State	+777	11%	23

Spread: BYU −20
Projected margin: BYU by 20.2

Off by2.2

Sat, Sep 19Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Colorado	+187	35%	7
Northwestern	−187	65%	41

Spread: Northwestern −6.5
Projected margin: Northwestern by 6.5

Off by27.5

Sat, Sep 19 · Neutral siteMissed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
West Virginia	+930	10%	38
Virginia	−930	90%	27

Spread: Virginia −21.5
Projected margin: Virginia by 21.7

Off by32.7

Sat, Sep 19Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Virginia Tech	+147	40%	35
Maryland	−147	60%	26

Spread: Maryland −4
Projected margin: Maryland by 4.0

Off by13.0

Sat, Sep 19Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Michigan State	+4036	2%	10
Notre Dame	−4036	98%	27

Spread: Notre Dame −33
Projected margin: Notre Dame by 33.0

Off by16.0

Sat, Sep 19Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Kennesaw State	+2488	4%	9
Tennessee	−2488	96%	42

Spread: Tennessee −29.5
Projected margin: Tennessee by 29.6

Off by3.4

Sat, Sep 19Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
UTSA	+1649	6%	6
Texas	−1649	94%	30

Spread: Texas −26.5
Projected margin: Texas by 26.4

Off by2.4

Sat, Sep 19Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Arkansas State	+914	10%	7
TCU	−914	90%	31

Spread: TCU −21.5
Projected margin: TCU by 21.6

Off by2.4

Sat, Sep 19Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
East Texas A&M	+3060	3%	0
Tulsa	−3060	97%	42

Spread: Tulsa −31
Projected margin: Tulsa by 31.1

Off by10.9

Sat, Sep 19Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
UAB	+318	24%	14
Louisiana	−318	76%	21

Spread: Louisiana −12
Projected margin: Louisiana by 11.9

Off by4.9

Sat, Sep 19Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
South Dakota	+1005	9%	24
Boise State	−1005	91%	38

Spread: Boise State −22.5
Projected margin: Boise State by 22.4

Off by8.4

Sat, Sep 19Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
James Madison	−123	55%	26
San Diego State	+123	45%	13

Spread: James Madison −2
Projected margin: James Madison by 2.2

Off by10.8

Sat, Sep 19Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Northern Illinois	+5453	2%	17
Arizona	−5453	98%	42

Spread: Arizona −35
Projected margin: Arizona by 35.1

Off by10.1

Sat, Sep 19Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
North Dakota State	−1572	94%	31
Sacramento State	+1572	6%	10

Spread: North Dakota State −26
Projected margin: North Dakota State by 26.0

Off by5.0

Sat, Sep 19Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Purdue	+296	25%	38
UCLA	−296	75%	52

Spread: UCLA −11
Projected margin: UCLA by 11.2

Off by2.8

Sat, Sep 19Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Montana	+211	32%	17
Oregon State	−211	68%	52

Spread: Oregon State −8
Projected margin: Oregon State by 7.8

Off by27.2

Sat, Sep 19Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Fresno State	−183	65%	26
San José State	+183	35%	10

Spread: Fresno State −6.5
Projected margin: Fresno State by 6.3

Off by9.7

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