Archive

A history of our predictions. A model is only worth what its predictions are, so all of ours are made public after games end.

Were the model's chances right?

Every game is sorted by the chance that the Field Theory model gave each team to win. Each bar shows the amount of teams in that prediction range that actually won. When the model's chances are honest, the bar boundary ends up inside the shaded band.

How often the model's favorites won, by the chance it gave them
Model's chance for the favorite	Favorites won	Underdogs won
90% to 100% (underdog 0% to 10%)	96%	4%
80% to 90% (underdog 10% to 20%)	82%	18%
70% to 80% (underdog 20% to 30%)	76%	24%
60% to 70% (underdog 30% to 40%)	63%	37%
50% to 60% (underdog 40% to 50%)	50%	50%

76%Winners picked1148 of 1508 games, not including toss-ups

12.7Average missPoints between projected and final margin among FBS matchups

1522GamesFinal with a pregame prediction, all seasons

Click here to see Field Theory's advanced statistics.

Week 1

89 of 98 winners picked (91%) · average miss 15.6 pts

Sat, Aug 29 · Neutral siteMissed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
North Carolina	+1165	8%	15
TCU	−1165	92%	10

Spread: TCU −23.5
Projected margin: TCU by 23.6

Off by28.6

Sat, Aug 29Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
San José State	+13404	1%	26
USC	−13404	99%	42

Spread: USC −41
Projected margin: USC by 40.8

Off by24.8

Sat, Aug 29Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
NC State	+164	38%	8
Virginia	−164	62%	34

Spread: Virginia −5
Projected margin: Virginia by 5.1

Off by20.9

Sat, Aug 29Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Jacksonville State	+1241	7%	7
North Dakota State	−1241	93%	33

Spread: North Dakota State −24
Projected margin: North Dakota State by 24.1

Off by1.9

Sat, Aug 29Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Sacramento State	−128	56%	17
Eastern Michigan	+128	44%	28

Spread: Sacramento State −2.5
Projected margin: Sacramento State by 2.6

Off by13.6

Sat, Aug 29Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Hawai'i	+190	35%	27
Stanford	−190	65%	37

Spread: Stanford −6.5
Projected margin: Stanford by 6.7

Off by3.3

Sat, Aug 29Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
New Mexico State	+4011	2%	17
Florida State	−4011	98%	34

Spread: Florida State −33
Projected margin: Florida State by 33.0

Off by16.0

Sat, Aug 29Toss-up

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Memphis	EVEN	50%	27
UNLV	EVEN	50%	21

Spread: Pick'em
Projected margin: Even

Off by6.0

Thu, Sep 3Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Massachusetts	+19541	1%	37
Rutgers	−19541	99%	21

Spread: Rutgers −43
Projected margin: Rutgers by 43.0

Off by59.0

Thu, Sep 3Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Bethune-Cookman	+57948	0%	6
UCF	−57948	100%	73

Spread: UCF −49
Projected margin: UCF by 49.0

Off by18.0

Thu, Sep 3Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Akron	+2552	4%	16
Wake Forest	−2552	96%	38

Spread: Wake Forest −30
Projected margin: Wake Forest by 29.8

Off by7.8

Thu, Sep 3Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Merrimack	+970	9%	7
Delaware	−970	91%	42

Spread: Delaware −22
Projected margin: Delaware by 22.1

Off by12.9

Thu, Sep 3Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
West Georgia	+532	16%	0
Kennesaw State	−532	84%	47

Spread: Kennesaw State −17
Projected margin: Kennesaw State by 16.8

Off by30.2

Thu, Sep 3Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
UAlbany	+1500	6%	17
Buffalo	−1500	94%	21

Spread: Buffalo −25.5
Projected margin: Buffalo by 25.7

Off by21.7

Thu, Sep 3Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Arkansas-Pine Bluff	+99900	0%	14
Missouri	−99900	100%	54

Spread: Missouri −70
Projected margin: Missouri by 70.1

Off by30.1

Thu, Sep 3Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Colorado	+267	27%	14
Georgia Tech	−267	73%	13

Spread: Georgia Tech −10
Projected margin: Georgia Tech by 10.1

Off by11.1

Thu, Sep 3Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Eastern Illinois	+11699	1%	7
Minnesota	−11699	99%	59

Spread: Minnesota −40
Projected margin: Minnesota by 40.0

Off by12.0

Thu, Sep 3Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Idaho	+41944	0%	14
Utah	−41944	100%	66

Spread: Utah −47
Projected margin: Utah by 47.2

Off by4.8

Thu, Sep 3Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
UAB	+4256	2%	23
Illinois	−4256	98%	42

Spread: Illinois −33.5
Projected margin: Illinois by 33.4

Off by14.4

Fri, Sep 4Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
San José State	−134	57%	27
Eastern Michigan	+134	43%	21

Spread: San José State −3
Projected margin: San José State by 3.1

Off by2.9

Fri, Sep 4Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Indiana State	+6996	1%	19
Purdue	−6996	99%	44

Spread: Purdue −36.5
Projected margin: Purdue by 36.7

Off by11.7

Fri, Sep 4Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
North Carolina A&T	+4949	2%	10
Georgia State	−4949	98%	59

Spread: Georgia State −34.5
Projected margin: Georgia State by 34.4

Off by14.6

Fri, Sep 4Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
UTEP	+26045	0%	0
Oklahoma	−26045	100%	51

Spread: Oklahoma −44.5
Projected margin: Oklahoma by 44.6

Off by6.4

Fri, Sep 4Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Long Island University	+17757	1%	6
Kansas	−17757	99%	51

Spread: Kansas −42.5
Projected margin: Kansas by 42.5

Off by2.5

Fri, Sep 4Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Toledo	+141	41%	20
Michigan State	−141	59%	30

Spread: Michigan State −3.5
Projected margin: Michigan State by 3.6

Off by6.4

Fri, Sep 4Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Miami	−3332	97%	45
Stanford	+3332	3%	6

Spread: Miami −31.5
Projected margin: Miami by 31.7

Off by7.3

Fri, Sep 4Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Fresno State	+5213	2%	0
USC	−5213	98%	39

Spread: USC −35
Projected margin: USC by 34.8

Off by4.2

Sat, Sep 5Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
East Carolina	+642	13%	10
Alabama	−642	87%	48

Spread: Alabama −18.5
Projected margin: Alabama by 18.5

Off by19.5

Sat, Sep 5Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Oregon State	+854	10%	20
Houston	−854	90%	33

Spread: Houston −21
Projected margin: Houston by 21.0

Off by8.0

Sat, Sep 5Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Coastal Carolina	+418	19%	24
West Virginia	−418	81%	31

Spread: West Virginia −14.5
Projected margin: West Virginia by 14.5

Off by7.5

Sat, Sep 5Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
New Hampshire	+852	11%	3
Syracuse	−852	89%	66

Spread: Syracuse −21
Projected margin: Syracuse by 21.0

Off by42.0

Sat, Sep 5Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
North Texas	+1709	6%	16
Indiana	−1709	94%	52

Spread: Indiana −26.5
Projected margin: Indiana by 26.7

Off by9.3

Sat, Sep 5Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Ohio	+450	18%	21
Nebraska	−450	82%	49

Spread: Nebraska −15
Projected margin: Nebraska by 15.2

Off by12.8

Sat, Sep 5Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Lafayette	+1135	8%	7
UConn	−1135	92%	56

Spread: UConn −23.5
Projected margin: UConn by 23.4

Off by25.6

Sat, Sep 5Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Bryant	+25686	0%	3
Army	−25686	100%	59

Spread: Army −44.5
Projected margin: Army by 44.6

Off by11.4

Sat, Sep 5Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Tarleton State	−268	73%	20
Bowling Green	+268	27%	13

Spread: Tarleton State −10
Projected margin: Tarleton State by 10.2

Off by3.2

Sat, Sep 5Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Liberty	+2662	4%	13
James Madison	−2662	96%	20

Spread: James Madison −30
Projected margin: James Madison by 30.1

Off by23.1

Sat, Sep 5Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Miami (OH)	+946	10%	14
Pittsburgh	−946	90%	59

Spread: Pittsburgh −22
Projected margin: Pittsburgh by 21.9

Off by23.1

Sat, Sep 5Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Ball State	+99900	0%	3
Ohio State	−99900	100%	56

Spread: Ohio State −61.5
Projected margin: Ohio State by 61.6

Off by8.6

Sat, Sep 5Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Kent State	+5189	2%	0
South Carolina	−5189	98%	57

Spread: South Carolina −35
Projected margin: South Carolina by 34.8

Off by22.2

Sat, Sep 5Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Youngstown State	+643	13%	13
Kentucky	−643	87%	45

Spread: Kentucky −18.5
Projected margin: Kentucky by 18.5

Off by13.5

Sat, Sep 5Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Southeast Missouri State	+41924	0%	10
Iowa State	−41924	100%	38

Spread: Iowa State −47
Projected margin: Iowa State by 47.2

Off by19.2

Sat, Sep 5Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Duquesne	+1422	7%	0
Air Force	−1422	93%	34

Spread: Air Force −25
Projected margin: Air Force by 25.2

Off by8.8

Sat, Sep 5Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Rhode Island	+339	23%	14
Temple	−339	77%	38

Spread: Temple −12.5
Projected margin: Temple by 12.5

Off by11.5

Sat, Sep 5Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Tennessee State	+99900	0%	3
Georgia	−99900	100%	63

Spread: Georgia −68.5
Projected margin: Georgia by 68.7

Off by8.7

Sat, Sep 5 · Neutral siteCorrect pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Baylor	+367	21%	16
Auburn	−367	79%	17

Spread: Auburn −13.5
Projected margin: Auburn by 13.3

Off by12.3

Sat, Sep 5Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Furman	+49623	0%	9
Tennessee	−49623	100%	56

Spread: Tennessee −48
Projected margin: Tennessee by 48.1

Off by1.1

Sat, Sep 5Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Texas State	+768	12%	7
Texas	−768	88%	59

Spread: Texas −20
Projected margin: Texas by 20.1

Off by31.9

Sat, Sep 5Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Boston College	+451	18%	15
Cincinnati	−451	82%	34

Spread: Cincinnati −15
Projected margin: Cincinnati by 15.2

Off by3.8

Sat, Sep 5Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Tulane	+137	42%	3
Duke	−137	58%	17

Spread: Duke −3.5
Projected margin: Duke by 3.3

Off by10.7

Sat, Sep 5Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Boise State	+5291	2%	27
Oregon	−5291	98%	34

Spread: Oregon −35
Projected margin: Oregon by 34.9

Off by27.9

Sat, Sep 5Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Marshall	+3386	3%	0
Penn State	−3386	97%	45

Spread: Penn State −32
Projected margin: Penn State by 31.8

Off by13.2

Sat, Sep 5Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
The Citadel	+684	13%	43
Charlotte	−684	87%	41

Spread: Charlotte −19
Projected margin: Charlotte by 19.0

Off by21.0

Sat, Sep 5Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Towson	+5885	2%	15
Navy	−5885	98%	42

Spread: Navy −35.5
Projected margin: Navy by 35.6

Off by8.6

Sat, Sep 5Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
UT Rio Grande Valley	+1838	5%	16
UTSA	−1838	95%	45

Spread: UTSA −27.5
Projected margin: UTSA by 27.3

Off by1.7

Sat, Sep 5Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Fordham	+85783	0%	0
North Dakota State	−85783	100%	38

Spread: North Dakota State −51
Projected margin: North Dakota State by 51.0

Off by13.0

Sat, Sep 5Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Maine	+531	16%	3
App State	−531	84%	55

Spread: App State −16.5
Projected margin: App State by 16.7

Off by35.3

Sat, Sep 5Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Oklahoma State	+142	41%	10
Tulsa	−142	59%	24

Spread: Tulsa −3.5
Projected margin: Tulsa by 3.6

Off by10.4

Sat, Sep 5Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
North Alabama	+3289	3%	14
Arkansas	−3289	97%	31

Spread: Arkansas −31.5
Projected margin: Arkansas by 31.6

Off by14.6

Sat, Sep 5Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Northern Illinois	+47036	0%	0
Iowa	−47036	100%	40

Spread: Iowa −48
Projected margin: Iowa by 47.9

Off by7.9

Sat, Sep 5Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Alcorn State	+16593	1%	3
Southern Miss	−16593	99%	49

Spread: Southern Miss −42
Projected margin: Southern Miss by 42.1

Off by3.9

Sat, Sep 5Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Wyoming	−103	51%	13
Colorado State	+103	49%	35

Spread: Wyoming −0.5
Projected margin: Wyoming by 0.3

Off by22.3

Sat, Sep 5Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Norfolk State	+99900	0%	10
Old Dominion	−99900	100%	31

Spread: Old Dominion −56
Projected margin: Old Dominion by 56.1

Off by35.1

Sat, Sep 5Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Missouri State	+2932	3%	0
Texas A&M	−2932	97%	50

Spread: Texas A&M −31
Projected margin: Texas A&M by 30.8

Off by19.2

Sat, Sep 5Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Austin Peay	+5408	2%	9
Vanderbilt	−5408	98%	28

Spread: Vanderbilt −35
Projected margin: Vanderbilt by 35.0

Off by16.0

Sat, Sep 5Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Abilene Christian	+23800	0%	10
Texas Tech	−23800	100%	33

Spread: Texas Tech −44
Projected margin: Texas Tech by 44.1

Off by21.1

Sat, Sep 5Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Nicholls	+36453	0%	3
Kansas State	−36453	100%	71

Spread: Kansas State −46.5
Projected margin: Kansas State by 46.5

Off by21.5

Sat, Sep 5Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Idaho State	+480	17%	29
Utah State	−480	83%	17

Spread: Utah State −16
Projected margin: Utah State by 15.8

Off by27.8

Sat, Sep 5Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Arkansas State	+941	10%	24
Memphis	−941	90%	42

Spread: Memphis −22
Projected margin: Memphis by 21.8

Off by3.8

Sat, Sep 5Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Houston Christian	+2624	4%	3
Rice	−2624	96%	31

Spread: Rice −30
Projected margin: Rice by 30.0

Off by2.0

Sat, Sep 5Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Florida International	+2620	4%	9
South Florida	−2620	96%	19

Spread: South Florida −30
Projected margin: South Florida by 30.0

Off by20.0

Sat, Sep 5Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Murray State	+968	9%	14
Middle Tennessee	−968	91%	38

Spread: Middle Tennessee −22
Projected margin: Middle Tennessee by 22.1

Off by1.9

Sat, Sep 5Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Eastern Kentucky	+519	16%	7
Jacksonville State	−519	84%	49

Spread: Jacksonville State −16.5
Projected margin: Jacksonville State by 16.5

Off by25.5

Sat, Sep 5Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Charleston Southern	+1295	7%	0
Georgia Southern	−1295	93%	31

Spread: Georgia Southern −24.5
Projected margin: Georgia Southern by 24.5

Off by6.5

Sat, Sep 5Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
SE Louisiana	+210	32%	14
South Alabama	−210	68%	39

Spread: South Alabama −7.5
Projected margin: South Alabama by 7.7

Off by17.3

Sat, Sep 5Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Sam Houston	+1198	8%	21
Troy	−1198	92%	24

Spread: Troy −24
Projected margin: Troy by 23.9

Off by20.9

Sat, Sep 5Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Clemson	+205	33%	10
LSU	−205	67%	51

Spread: LSU −7.5
Projected margin: LSU by 7.5

Off by33.5

Sat, Sep 5Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
UL Monroe	+1916	5%	13
Mississippi State	−1916	95%	62

Spread: Mississippi State −27.5
Projected margin: Mississippi State by 27.6

Off by21.4

Sat, Sep 5Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
VMI	+50600	0%	3
Virginia Tech	−50600	100%	73

Spread: Virginia Tech −48
Projected margin: Virginia Tech by 48.2

Off by21.8

Sat, Sep 5Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Western Michigan	+1180	8%	12
Michigan	−1180	92%	13

Spread: Michigan −23.5
Projected margin: Michigan by 23.7

Off by22.7

Sat, Sep 5Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Northwestern State	+99900	0%	6
Louisiana Tech	−99900	100%	80

Spread: Louisiana Tech −54.5
Projected margin: Louisiana Tech by 54.3

Off by19.7

Sat, Sep 5Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Florida Atlantic	+1064	9%	21
Florida	−1064	91%	66

Spread: Florida −23
Projected margin: Florida by 22.9

Off by22.1

Sat, Sep 5Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Utah Tech	+99900	0%	7
BYU	−99900	100%	63

Spread: BYU −57.5
Projected margin: BYU by 57.4

Off by1.4

Sat, Sep 5Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Hampton	+99900	0%	0
Maryland	−99900	100%	62

Spread: Maryland −57.5
Projected margin: Maryland by 57.4

Off by4.6

Sat, Sep 5Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
South Dakota State	+1014	9%	18
Northwestern	−1014	91%	34

Spread: Northwestern −22.5
Projected margin: Northwestern by 22.5

Off by6.5

Sat, Sep 5Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Lamar	+711	12%	7
Louisiana	−711	88%	38

Spread: Louisiana −19.5
Projected margin: Louisiana by 19.4

Off by11.6

Sat, Sep 5Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Mercyhurst	+2186	4%	14
New Mexico State	−2186	96%	51

Spread: New Mexico State −28.5
Projected margin: New Mexico State by 28.6

Off by8.4

Sat, Sep 5Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Northern Arizona	+10891	1%	7
Arizona	−10891	99%	35

Spread: Arizona −39.5
Projected margin: Arizona by 39.5

Off by11.5

Sat, Sep 5Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Portland State	+48144	0%	20
San Diego State	−48144	100%	53

Spread: San Diego State −48
Projected margin: San Diego State by 48.0

Off by15.0

Sat, Sep 5Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Morgan State	+48488	0%	7
Arizona State	−48488	100%	70

Spread: Arizona State −48
Projected margin: Arizona State by 48.0

Off by15.0

Sat, Sep 5Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
UNLV	−129	56%	21
Hawai'i	+129	44%	6

Spread: UNLV −2.5
Projected margin: UNLV by 2.7

Off by12.3

Sat, Sep 5Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Central Michigan	+630	14%	7
New Mexico	−630	86%	38

Spread: New Mexico −18.5
Projected margin: New Mexico by 18.3

Off by12.7

Sat, Sep 5Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Mississippi Valley State	+56249	0%	0
Sacramento State	−56249	100%	52

Spread: Sacramento State −49
Projected margin: Sacramento State by 48.8

Off by3.2

Sat, Sep 5Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
UCLA	−108	52%	45
California	+108	48%	24

Spread: UCLA −1
Projected margin: UCLA by 0.8

Off by20.2

Sat, Sep 5Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Western Kentucky	−185	65%	14
Nevada	+185	35%	49

Spread: Western Kentucky −6.5
Projected margin: Western Kentucky by 6.4

Off by41.4

Sun, Sep 6Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Washington State	+1156	8%	10
Washington	−1156	92%	24

Spread: Washington −23.5
Projected margin: Washington by 23.6

Off by9.6

Sun, Sep 6 · Neutral siteCorrect pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Louisville	+428	19%	38
Ole Miss	−428	81%	41

Spread: Ole Miss −14.5
Projected margin: Ole Miss by 14.7

Off by11.7

Sun, Sep 6 · Neutral siteCorrect pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Wisconsin	+4722	2%	13
Notre Dame	−4722	98%	41

Spread: Notre Dame −34
Projected margin: Notre Dame by 34.1

Off by6.1

Mon, Sep 7Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
SMU	+146	41%	27
Florida State	−146	59%	24

Spread: Florida State −4
Projected margin: Florida State by 3.9

Off by6.9

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