Archive

A history of our predictions. A model is only worth what its predictions are, so all of ours are made public after games end.

Were the model's chances right?

Every game is sorted by the chance that the Field Theory model gave each team to win. Each bar shows the amount of teams in that prediction range that actually won. When the model's chances are honest, the bar boundary ends up inside the shaded band.

How often the model's favorites won, by the chance it gave them
Model's chance for the favorite	Favorites won	Underdogs won
90% to 100% (underdog 0% to 10%)	96%	4%
80% to 90% (underdog 10% to 20%)	82%	18%
70% to 80% (underdog 20% to 30%)	76%	24%
60% to 70% (underdog 30% to 40%)	63%	37%
50% to 60% (underdog 40% to 50%)	50%	50%

76%Winners picked1148 of 1508 games, not including toss-ups

12.7Average missPoints between projected and final margin among FBS matchups

1522GamesFinal with a pregame prediction, all seasons

Click here to see Field Theory's advanced statistics.

Week 2

76 of 86 winners picked (88%) · average miss 12.7 pts

Thu, Sep 10Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Florida A&M	+99900	0%	7
Miami	−99900	100%	77

Spread: Miami −77.5
Projected margin: Miami by 77.6

Off by7.6

Fri, Sep 11Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Villanova	+13182	1%	13
Louisville	−13182	99%	59

Spread: Louisville −40.5
Projected margin: Louisville by 40.7

Off by5.3

Fri, Sep 11Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Norfolk State	+99900	0%	3
Virginia	−99900	100%	59

Spread: Virginia −60
Projected margin: Virginia by 59.9

Off by3.9

Fri, Sep 11Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Richmond	+25849	0%	0
NC State	−25849	100%	73

Spread: NC State −44.5
Projected margin: NC State by 44.6

Off by28.4

Fri, Sep 11Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Rutgers	+169	37%	21
Boston College	−169	63%	28

Spread: Boston College −5.5
Projected margin: Boston College by 5.5

Off by1.5

Fri, Sep 11Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Missouri	−127	56%	38
Kansas	+127	44%	21

Spread: Missouri −2.5
Projected margin: Missouri by 2.5

Off by14.5

Sat, Sep 12Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Oklahoma	−152	60%	10
Michigan	+152	40%	17

Spread: Oklahoma −4.5
Projected margin: Oklahoma by 4.4

Off by11.4

Sat, Sep 12Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Arizona State	+740	12%	20
Texas A&M	−740	88%	48

Spread: Texas A&M −19.5
Projected margin: Texas A&M by 19.7

Off by8.3

Sat, Sep 12Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Washington State	+358	22%	7
Kansas State	−358	78%	34

Spread: Kansas State −13
Projected margin: Kansas State by 13.0

Off by14.0

Sat, Sep 12Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Oregon	−9998	99%	31
Oklahoma State	+9998	1%	39

Spread: Oregon −39
Projected margin: Oregon by 39.0

Off by47.0

Sat, Sep 12Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
East Tennessee State	+1561	6%	3
North Carolina	−1561	94%	35

Spread: North Carolina −26
Projected margin: North Carolina by 26.0

Off by6.0

Sat, Sep 12Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Old Dominion	+108	48%	21
Virginia Tech	−108	52%	44

Spread: Virginia Tech −1
Projected margin: Virginia Tech by 0.9

Off by22.1

Sat, Sep 12Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Wake Forest	−122	55%	38
Purdue	+122	45%	36

Spread: Wake Forest −2
Projected margin: Wake Forest by 2.1

Off by0.1

Sat, Sep 12Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Howard	+99900	0%	0
Indiana	−99900	100%	55

Spread: Indiana −84.5
Projected margin: Indiana by 84.4

Off by29.4

Sat, Sep 12Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Penn State	−1192	92%	27
Temple	+1192	8%	9

Spread: Penn State −24
Projected margin: Penn State by 23.8

Off by5.8

Sat, Sep 12Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
South Florida	−169	63%	28
Army	+169	37%	24

Spread: South Florida −5.5
Projected margin: South Florida by 5.5

Off by1.5

Sat, Sep 12Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
App State	+519	16%	27
East Carolina	−519	84%	24

Spread: East Carolina −16.5
Projected margin: East Carolina by 16.5

Off by19.5

Sat, Sep 12Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Wofford	−136	58%	15
Kent State	+136	42%	36

Spread: Wofford −3
Projected margin: Wofford by 3.2

Off by24.2

Sat, Sep 12Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Wagner	+99900	0%	3
James Madison	−99900	100%	87

Spread: James Madison −63.5
Projected margin: James Madison by 63.4

Off by20.6

Sat, Sep 12Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Gardner-Webb	+450	18%	23
Liberty	−450	82%	24

Spread: Liberty −15
Projected margin: Liberty by 15.2

Off by14.2

Sat, Sep 12Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Western Kentucky	+5064	2%	20
Georgia	−5064	98%	70

Spread: Georgia −34.5
Projected margin: Georgia by 34.6

Off by15.4

Sat, Sep 12Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
UT Martin	+1918	5%	7
West Virginia	−1918	95%	52

Spread: West Virginia −27.5
Projected margin: West Virginia by 27.6

Off by17.4

Sat, Sep 12Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Colgate	+1197	8%	10
Central Michigan	−1197	92%	13

Spread: Central Michigan −24
Projected margin: Central Michigan by 23.8

Off by20.8

Sat, Sep 12Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Holy Cross	+13865	1%	7
Miami (OH)	−13865	99%	45

Spread: Miami (OH) −41
Projected margin: Miami (OH) by 41.0

Off by3.0

Sat, Sep 12Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Stony Brook	+365	22%	17
Ball State	−365	78%	41

Spread: Ball State −13
Projected margin: Ball State by 13.2

Off by10.8

Sat, Sep 12Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Alabama	−449	82%	45
Kentucky	+449	18%	17

Spread: Alabama −15
Projected margin: Alabama by 15.2

Off by12.8

Sat, Sep 12Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Mississippi State	−192	66%	38
Minnesota	+192	34%	13

Spread: Mississippi State −7
Projected margin: Mississippi State by 6.8

Off by18.2

Sat, Sep 12Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Weber State	+2457	4%	21
Colorado	−2457	96%	52

Spread: Colorado −29.5
Projected margin: Colorado by 29.5

Off by1.5

Sat, Sep 12Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
UCF	+482	17%	7
Pittsburgh	−482	83%	12

Spread: Pittsburgh −16
Projected margin: Pittsburgh by 15.9

Off by10.9

Sat, Sep 12Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Arizona	+261	28%	17
BYU	−261	72%	28

Spread: BYU −10
Projected margin: BYU by 9.9

Off by1.1

Sat, Sep 12Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
California	+213	32%	21
Syracuse	−213	68%	18

Spread: Syracuse −8
Projected margin: Syracuse by 7.9

Off by10.9

Sat, Sep 12Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Duke	+256	28%	31
Illinois	−256	72%	27

Spread: Illinois −9.5
Projected margin: Illinois by 9.7

Off by13.7

Sat, Sep 12Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Eastern Michigan	+1254	7%	7
Michigan State	−1254	93%	35

Spread: Michigan State −24
Projected margin: Michigan State by 24.2

Off by3.8

Sat, Sep 12Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Maryland	+184	35%	38
UConn	−184	65%	14

Spread: UConn −6.5
Projected margin: UConn by 6.4

Off by30.4

Sat, Sep 12Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Utah State	+2557	4%	14
Washington	−2557	96%	16

Spread: Washington −30
Projected margin: Washington by 29.8

Off by27.8

Sat, Sep 12Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Rice	+99900	0%	0
Notre Dame	−99900	100%	52

Spread: Notre Dame −55
Projected margin: Notre Dame by 55.0

Off by3.0

Sat, Sep 12Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
UTSA	−266	73%	31
Texas State	+266	27%	26

Spread: UTSA −10
Projected margin: UTSA by 10.1

Off by5.1

Sat, Sep 12Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
UL Monroe	+243	29%	20
UAB	−243	71%	26

Spread: UAB −9
Projected margin: UAB by 9.2

Off by3.2

Sat, Sep 12Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Robert Morris	+1573	6%	10
Akron	−1573	94%	45

Spread: Akron −26
Projected margin: Akron by 26.1

Off by8.9

Sat, Sep 12Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Central Connecticut	+21563	0%	10
Toledo	−21563	100%	63

Spread: Toledo −43.5
Projected margin: Toledo by 43.6

Off by9.4

Sat, Sep 12Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Sacred Heart	+290	26%	10
Massachusetts	−290	74%	37

Spread: Massachusetts −11
Projected margin: Massachusetts by 10.9

Off by16.1

Sat, Sep 12Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
UNLV	+384	21%	6
North Texas	−384	79%	44

Spread: North Texas −13.5
Projected margin: North Texas by 13.7

Off by24.3

Sat, Sep 12Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
UC Davis	+3580	3%	10
SMU	−3580	97%	56

Spread: SMU −32
Projected margin: SMU by 32.2

Off by13.8

Sat, Sep 12Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Northern Colorado	+563	15%	13
Wyoming	−563	85%	21

Spread: Wyoming −17.5
Projected margin: Wyoming by 17.3

Off by9.3

Sat, Sep 12Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Mercyhurst	+99900	0%	7
New Mexico	−99900	100%	70

Spread: New Mexico −57
Projected margin: New Mexico by 56.9

Off by6.1

Sat, Sep 12Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Alabama State	+785	11%	17
Troy	−785	89%	34

Spread: Troy −20.5
Projected margin: Troy by 20.3

Off by3.3

Sat, Sep 12Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Delaware	+6861	1%	26
Vanderbilt	−6861	99%	35

Spread: Vanderbilt −36.5
Projected margin: Vanderbilt by 36.6

Off by27.6

Sat, Sep 12Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Campbell	+25725	0%	3
Florida	−25725	100%	52

Spread: Florida −44.5
Projected margin: Florida by 44.6

Off by4.4

Sat, Sep 12Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Memphis	+254	28%	20
Boise State	−254	72%	38

Spread: Boise State −9.5
Projected margin: Boise State by 9.6

Off by8.4

Sat, Sep 12Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Buffalo	+759	12%	20
Florida International	−759	88%	33

Spread: Florida International −20
Projected margin: Florida International by 20.0

Off by7.0

Sat, Sep 12Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Jacksonville State	+141	42%	27
Ohio	−141	58%	29

Spread: Ohio −3.5
Projected margin: Ohio by 3.6

Off by1.6

Sat, Sep 12Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Monmouth	+2698	4%	14
Western Michigan	−2698	96%	49

Spread: Western Michigan −30
Projected margin: Western Michigan by 30.2

Off by4.8

Sat, Sep 12Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Towson	+99900	0%	9
South Carolina	−99900	100%	45

Spread: South Carolina −55
Projected margin: South Carolina by 55.2

Off by19.2

Sat, Sep 12Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Tennessee	−196	66%	45
Georgia Tech	+196	34%	24

Spread: Tennessee −7
Projected margin: Tennessee by 7.0

Off by14.0

Sat, Sep 12Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Western Carolina	+2320	4%	10
Cincinnati	−2320	96%	62

Spread: Cincinnati −29
Projected margin: Cincinnati by 29.0

Off by23.0

Sat, Sep 12Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Southern	+99900	0%	6
Houston	−99900	100%	77

Spread: Houston −55
Projected margin: Houston by 55.0

Off by16.0

Sat, Sep 12Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Bowling Green	+3031	3%	7
Nebraska	−3031	97%	56

Spread: Nebraska −31
Projected margin: Nebraska by 31.0

Off by18.0

Sat, Sep 12Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Southern Utah	+195	34%	24
Colorado State	−195	66%	58

Spread: Colorado State −7
Projected margin: Colorado State by 7.0

Off by27.0

Sat, Sep 12Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Tulsa	−273	73%	23
Sam Houston	+273	27%	17

Spread: Tulsa −10.5
Projected margin: Tulsa by 10.4

Off by4.4

Sat, Sep 12Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Illinois State	−182	64%	28
Northern Illinois	+182	36%	24

Spread: Illinois State −6
Projected margin: Illinois State by 6.2

Off by2.2

Sat, Sep 12Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
South Alabama	+732	12%	24
Tulane	−732	88%	28

Spread: Tulane −19.5
Projected margin: Tulane by 19.7

Off by15.7

Sat, Sep 12Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
West Georgia	+550	15%	7
Arkansas State	−550	85%	52

Spread: Arkansas State −17
Projected margin: Arkansas State by 17.1

Off by27.9

Sat, Sep 12Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Georgia State	+752	12%	31
Kennesaw State	−752	88%	17

Spread: Kennesaw State −20
Projected margin: Kennesaw State by 19.9

Off by33.9

Sat, Sep 12Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Middle Tennessee	+259	28%	26
Marshall	−259	72%	28

Spread: Marshall −10
Projected margin: Marshall by 9.8

Off by7.8

Sat, Sep 12Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Lindenwood	+823	11%	14
Missouri State	−823	89%	48

Spread: Missouri State −20.5
Projected margin: Missouri State by 20.7

Off by13.3

Sat, Sep 12Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
San Diego State	+142	41%	10
UCLA	−142	59%	28

Spread: UCLA −3.5
Projected margin: UCLA by 3.7

Off by14.3

Sat, Sep 12Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Western Illinois	+20358	0%	9
Wisconsin	−20358	100%	36

Spread: Wisconsin −43
Projected margin: Wisconsin by 43.2

Off by16.2

Sat, Sep 12Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Ohio State	−165	62%	23
Texas	+165	38%	24

Spread: Ohio State −5
Projected margin: Ohio State by 5.2

Off by6.2

Sat, Sep 12Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Texas Tech	−3683	97%	35
Oregon State	+3683	3%	24

Spread: Texas Tech −32.5
Projected margin: Texas Tech by 32.4

Off by21.4

Sat, Sep 12Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Iowa State	+434	19%	13
Iowa	−434	81%	16

Spread: Iowa −15
Projected margin: Iowa by 14.9

Off by11.9

Sat, Sep 12Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Georgia Southern	+438	19%	7
Clemson	−438	81%	22

Spread: Clemson −15
Projected margin: Clemson by 15.0

Off by0.0

Sat, Sep 12Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Navy	−363	78%	30
Florida Atlantic	+363	22%	38

Spread: Navy −13
Projected margin: Navy by 13.2

Off by21.2

Sat, Sep 12Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Louisiana Tech	+1603	6%	14
LSU	−1603	94%	45

Spread: LSU −26
Projected margin: LSU by 26.2

Off by4.8

Sat, Sep 12Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Fordham	+9474	1%	7
Coastal Carolina	−9474	99%	45

Spread: Coastal Carolina −38.5
Projected margin: Coastal Carolina by 38.7

Off by0.7

Sat, Sep 12Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Southern Miss	+1220	8%	8
Auburn	−1220	92%	43

Spread: Auburn −24
Projected margin: Auburn by 24.0

Off by11.0

Sat, Sep 12Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Charlotte	+32213	0%	9
Ole Miss	−32213	100%	41

Spread: Ole Miss −46
Projected margin: Ole Miss by 45.8

Off by13.8

Sat, Sep 12Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Grambling	+61454	0%	7
TCU	−61454	100%	63

Spread: TCU −49.5
Projected margin: TCU by 49.3

Off by6.7

Sat, Sep 12Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Prairie View A&M	+2122	4%	3
Baylor	−2122	96%	44

Spread: Baylor −28.5
Projected margin: Baylor by 28.4

Off by12.6

Sat, Sep 12Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Cal Poly	+402	20%	20
San José State	−402	80%	30

Spread: San José State −14
Projected margin: San José State by 14.1

Off by4.1

Sat, Sep 12Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Texas Southern	+791	11%	10
UTEP	−791	89%	51

Spread: UTEP −20.5
Projected margin: UTEP by 20.3

Off by20.7

Sat, Sep 12Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
North Dakota State	−190	65%	38
Air Force	+190	35%	32

Spread: North Dakota State −6.5
Projected margin: North Dakota State by 6.7

Off by0.7

Sat, Sep 12Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Arkansas	+3155	3%	10
Utah	−3155	97%	43

Spread: Utah −31.5
Projected margin: Utah by 31.3

Off by1.7

Sat, Sep 12Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Sacramento State	+367	21%	3
Fresno State	−367	79%	49

Spread: Fresno State −13.5
Projected margin: Fresno State by 13.3

Off by32.7

Sat, Sep 12Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Montana State	−213	68%	20
Nevada	+213	32%	7

Spread: Montana State −8
Projected margin: Montana State by 7.9

Off by5.1

Sat, Sep 12Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Louisiana	+5843	2%	30
USC	−5843	98%	49

Spread: USC −35.5
Projected margin: USC by 35.6

Off by16.6

Sat, Sep 12Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
New Mexico State	+235	30%	19
Hawai'i	−235	70%	29

Spread: Hawai'i −9
Projected margin: Hawai'i by 8.9

Off by1.1

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