Archive

A history of our predictions. A model is only worth what its predictions are, so all of ours are made public after games end.

Were the model's chances right?

Every game is sorted by the chance that the Field Theory model gave each team to win. Each bar shows the amount of teams in that prediction range that actually won. When the model's chances are honest, the bar boundary ends up inside the shaded band.

How often the model's favorites won, by the chance it gave them
Model's chance for the favorite	Favorites won	Underdogs won
90% to 100% (underdog 0% to 10%)	96%	4%
80% to 90% (underdog 10% to 20%)	82%	18%
70% to 80% (underdog 20% to 30%)	76%	24%
60% to 70% (underdog 30% to 40%)	63%	37%
50% to 60% (underdog 40% to 50%)	50%	50%

76%Winners picked1148 of 1508 games, not including toss-ups

12.7Average missPoints between projected and final margin among FBS matchups

1522GamesFinal with a pregame prediction, all seasons

Click here to see Field Theory's advanced statistics.

Week 7

41 of 62 winners picked (66%) · average miss 11.6 pts

Tue, Oct 13Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Delaware	−110	52%	30
Middle Tennessee	+110	48%	33

Spread: Delaware −1
Projected margin: Delaware by 1.0

Off by4.0

Tue, Oct 13Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Florida International	+180	36%	24
Jacksonville State	−180	64%	27

Spread: Jacksonville State −6
Projected margin: Jacksonville State by 6.1

Off by3.1

Wed, Oct 14Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Kennesaw State	−112	53%	21
Missouri State	+112	47%	24

Spread: Kennesaw State −1
Projected margin: Kennesaw State by 1.2

Off by4.2

Wed, Oct 14Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Western Kentucky	−166	62%	16
Sam Houston	+166	38%	3

Spread: Western Kentucky −5.5
Projected margin: Western Kentucky by 5.3

Off by7.7

Thu, Oct 15Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
East Carolina	−253	72%	17
UAB	+253	28%	30

Spread: East Carolina −9.5
Projected margin: East Carolina by 9.6

Off by22.6

Thu, Oct 15Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Georgia Southern	+126	44%	23
Old Dominion	−126	56%	15

Spread: Old Dominion −2.5
Projected margin: Old Dominion by 2.4

Off by10.4

Thu, Oct 15Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Colorado State	+305	25%	27
Texas State	−305	75%	66

Spread: Texas State −11.5
Projected margin: Texas State by 11.5

Off by27.5

Fri, Oct 16Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Memphis	−132	57%	17
Tulane	+132	43%	31

Spread: Memphis −3
Projected margin: Memphis by 2.9

Off by16.9

Fri, Oct 16Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Washington	−128	56%	38
Purdue	+128	44%	26

Spread: Washington −2.5
Projected margin: Washington by 2.6

Off by9.4

Fri, Oct 16Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
App State	−108	52%	35
Coastal Carolina	+108	48%	32

Spread: App State −1
Projected margin: App State by 0.8

Off by2.2

Sat, Oct 17Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Mississippi State	+288	26%	0
LSU	−288	74%	31

Spread: LSU −11
Projected margin: LSU by 10.9

Off by20.1

Sat, Oct 17Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Florida	+399	20%	27
Texas	−399	80%	24

Spread: Texas −14
Projected margin: Texas by 14.1

Off by17.1

Sat, Oct 17Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Cincinnati	−160	62%	42
West Virginia	+160	38%	45

Spread: Cincinnati −5
Projected margin: Cincinnati by 4.9

Off by7.9

Sat, Oct 17Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Kansas	+207	33%	24
Kansas State	−207	67%	35

Spread: Kansas State −7.5
Projected margin: Kansas State by 7.6

Off by3.4

Sat, Oct 17Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Charleston Southern	+18094	1%	0
Clemson	−18094	99%	37

Spread: Clemson −42.5
Projected margin: Clemson by 42.6

Off by5.6

Sat, Oct 17Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Pittsburgh	−568	85%	21
Boston College	+568	15%	27

Spread: Pittsburgh −17.5
Projected margin: Pittsburgh by 17.4

Off by23.4

Sat, Oct 17Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Virginia	+185	35%	13
SMU	−185	65%	23

Spread: SMU −6.5
Projected margin: SMU by 6.4

Off by3.6

Sat, Oct 17Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Ohio State	+220	31%	19
Indiana	−220	69%	15

Spread: Indiana −8
Projected margin: Indiana by 8.2

Off by12.2

Sat, Oct 17Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Northwestern	−231	70%	24
Michigan State	+231	30%	21

Spread: Northwestern −8.5
Projected margin: Northwestern by 8.7

Off by5.7

Sat, Oct 17Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Florida Atlantic	+244	29%	24
Army	−244	71%	56

Spread: Army −9
Projected margin: Army by 9.2

Off by22.8

Sat, Oct 17Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Ball State	+331	23%	32
Bowling Green	−331	77%	31

Spread: Bowling Green −12
Projected margin: Bowling Green by 12.2

Off by13.2

Sat, Oct 17Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Georgia State	+560	15%	22
James Madison	−560	85%	49

Spread: James Madison −17
Projected margin: James Madison by 17.2

Off by9.8

Sat, Oct 17Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Rutgers	+224	31%	37
Maryland	−224	69%	30

Spread: Maryland −8.5
Projected margin: Maryland by 8.4

Off by15.4

Sat, Oct 17Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
The Citadel	+99900	0%	0
Texas A&M	−99900	100%	41

Spread: Texas A&M −54.5
Projected margin: Texas A&M by 54.7

Off by13.7

Sat, Oct 17Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Charlotte	+1200	8%	38
Temple	−1200	92%	31

Spread: Temple −24
Projected margin: Temple by 23.9

Off by30.9

Sat, Oct 17Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Massachusetts	+197	34%	18
Buffalo	−197	66%	25

Spread: Buffalo −7
Projected margin: Buffalo by 7.0

Off by0.0

Sat, Oct 17Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Western Michigan	−204	67%	21
Central Michigan	+204	33%	14

Spread: Western Michigan −7.5
Projected margin: Western Michigan by 7.4

Off by0.4

Sat, Oct 17Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Auburn	+776	11%	27
Georgia	−776	89%	24

Spread: Georgia −20
Projected margin: Georgia by 20.2

Off by23.2

Sat, Oct 17Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Missouri	+163	38%	3
Ole Miss	−163	62%	31

Spread: Ole Miss −5
Projected margin: Ole Miss by 5.1

Off by22.9

Sat, Oct 17Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Alabama	−234	70%	10
Tennessee	+234	30%	26

Spread: Alabama −9
Projected margin: Alabama by 8.8

Off by24.8

Sat, Oct 17Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Arizona State	+1321	7%	25
Texas Tech	−1321	93%	53

Spread: Texas Tech −24.5
Projected margin: Texas Tech by 24.7

Off by3.3

Sat, Oct 17Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Georgia Tech	+120	45%	24
Virginia Tech	−120	55%	34

Spread: Virginia Tech −2
Projected margin: Virginia Tech by 1.9

Off by8.1

Sat, Oct 17Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
North Carolina	+197	34%	24
Duke	−197	66%	20

Spread: Duke −7
Projected margin: Duke by 7.1

Off by11.1

Sat, Oct 17Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Penn State	+119	46%	18
Michigan	−119	54%	21

Spread: Michigan −2
Projected margin: Michigan by 1.9

Off by1.1

Sat, Oct 17Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Northern Illinois	+255	28%	23
Wyoming	−255	72%	41

Spread: Wyoming −9.5
Projected margin: Wyoming by 9.7

Off by8.3

Sat, Oct 17Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
UNLV	+128	44%	31
Air Force	−128	56%	41

Spread: Air Force −2.5
Projected margin: Air Force by 2.6

Off by7.4

Sat, Oct 17Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Toledo	−318	76%	34
Eastern Michigan	+318	24%	14

Spread: Toledo −12
Projected margin: Toledo by 11.9

Off by8.1

Sat, Oct 17Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Akron	+444	18%	14
Miami (OH)	−444	82%	34

Spread: Miami (OH) −15
Projected margin: Miami (OH) by 15.1

Off by4.9

Sat, Oct 17Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Tulsa	−197	66%	38
Rice	+197	34%	17

Spread: Tulsa −7
Projected margin: Tulsa by 7.1

Off by13.9

Sat, Oct 17Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Troy	+155	39%	6
Louisiana	−155	61%	33

Spread: Louisiana −4.5
Projected margin: Louisiana by 4.6

Off by22.4

Sat, Oct 17Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Washington State	+491	17%	30
Oregon State	−491	83%	48

Spread: Oregon State −16
Projected margin: Oregon State by 16.0

Off by2.0

Sat, Oct 17Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Arkansas	+282	26%	31
Vanderbilt	−282	74%	21

Spread: Vanderbilt −10.5
Projected margin: Vanderbilt by 10.7

Off by20.7

Sat, Oct 17Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
TCU	+164	38%	17
Baylor	−164	62%	6

Spread: Baylor −5
Projected margin: Baylor by 5.2

Off by16.2

Sat, Oct 17Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Florida State	+908	10%	35
Miami	−908	90%	43

Spread: Miami −21.5
Projected margin: Miami by 21.5

Off by13.5

Sat, Oct 17Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Kent State	+2771	3%	2
South Florida	−2771	97%	29

Spread: South Florida −30.5
Projected margin: South Florida by 30.4

Off by3.4

Sat, Oct 17Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Nevada	+766	12%	17
North Dakota State	−766	88%	31

Spread: North Dakota State −20
Projected margin: North Dakota State by 20.1

Off by6.1

Sat, Oct 17Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Arkansas State	+104	49%	23
Southern Miss	−104	51%	13

Spread: Southern Miss −0.5
Projected margin: Southern Miss by 0.4

Off by10.4

Sat, Oct 17Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Kentucky	+274	27%	21
Oklahoma	−274	73%	13

Spread: Oklahoma −10.5
Projected margin: Oklahoma by 10.4

Off by18.4

Sat, Oct 17Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Notre Dame	−424	81%	24
BYU	+424	19%	28

Spread: Notre Dame −14.5
Projected margin: Notre Dame by 14.6

Off by18.6

Sat, Oct 17Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Oklahoma State	+542	16%	32
Houston	−542	84%	35

Spread: Houston −17
Projected margin: Houston by 16.9

Off by13.9

Sat, Oct 17Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Elon	+2541	4%	7
Stanford	−2541	96%	34

Spread: Stanford −29.5
Projected margin: Stanford by 29.7

Off by2.7

Sat, Oct 17Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Louisville	−344	77%	34
Syracuse	+344	23%	26

Spread: Louisville −12.5
Projected margin: Louisville by 12.6

Off by4.6

Sat, Oct 17Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Wisconsin	+216	32%	7
UCLA	−216	68%	17

Spread: UCLA −8
Projected margin: UCLA by 8.0

Off by2.0

Sat, Oct 17Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Navy	+240	29%	34
UTSA	−240	71%	38

Spread: UTSA −9
Projected margin: UTSA by 9.1

Off by5.1

Sat, Oct 17Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Louisiana Tech	−902	90%	24
UL Monroe	+902	10%	0

Spread: Louisiana Tech −21.5
Projected margin: Louisiana Tech by 21.5

Off by2.5

Sat, Oct 17Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
San José State	−244	71%	24
UTEP	+244	29%	11

Spread: San José State −9
Projected margin: San José State by 9.2

Off by3.8

Sat, Oct 17Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Ohio	−493	83%	48
Sacramento State	+493	17%	7

Spread: Ohio −16
Projected margin: Ohio by 16.1

Off by24.9

Sat, Oct 17Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Utah	−2003	95%	27
Colorado	+2003	5%	24

Spread: Utah −28
Projected margin: Utah by 27.9

Off by24.9

Sat, Oct 17Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Wake Forest	−498	83%	41
California	+498	17%	7

Spread: Wake Forest −16
Projected margin: Wake Forest by 16.2

Off by17.8

Sat, Oct 17Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Fresno State	−162	62%	23
San Diego State	+162	38%	26

Spread: Fresno State −5
Projected margin: Fresno State by 5.1

Off by8.1

Sat, Oct 17Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
New Mexico	−702	88%	21
Hawai'i	+702	12%	10

Spread: New Mexico −19.5
Projected margin: New Mexico by 19.3

Off by8.3

Sat, Oct 17Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Nebraska	+296	25%	14
Oregon	−296	75%	17

Spread: Oregon −11
Projected margin: Oregon by 11.2

Off by8.2

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