Archive

A history of our predictions. A model is only worth what its predictions are, so all of ours are made public after games end.

Were the model's chances right?

Every game is sorted by the chance that the Field Theory model gave each team to win. Each bar shows the amount of teams in that prediction range that actually won. When the model's chances are honest, the bar boundary ends up inside the shaded band.

How often the model's favorites won, by the chance it gave them
Model's chance for the favorite	Favorites won	Underdogs won
90% to 100% (underdog 0% to 10%)	96%	4%
80% to 90% (underdog 10% to 20%)	82%	18%
70% to 80% (underdog 20% to 30%)	76%	24%
60% to 70% (underdog 30% to 40%)	63%	37%
50% to 60% (underdog 40% to 50%)	50%	50%

76%Winners picked1148 of 1508 games, not including toss-ups

12.7Average missPoints between projected and final margin among FBS matchups

1522GamesFinal with a pregame prediction, all seasons

Click here to see Field Theory's advanced statistics.

Week 4

54 of 70 winners picked (77%) · average miss 12.4 pts

Thu, Sep 24Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Liberty	+121	45%	34
Coastal Carolina	−121	55%	17

Spread: Coastal Carolina −2
Projected margin: Coastal Carolina by 2.0

Off by19.0

Fri, Sep 25Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Army	−133	57%	21
Temple	+133	43%	17

Spread: Army −3
Projected margin: Army by 3.0

Off by1.0

Fri, Sep 25Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Howard	+2890	3%	7
Rutgers	−2890	97%	58

Spread: Rutgers −30.5
Projected margin: Rutgers by 30.7

Off by20.3

Fri, Sep 25Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Navy	−303	75%	20
UAB	+303	25%	24

Spread: Navy −11.5
Projected margin: Navy by 11.4

Off by15.4

Fri, Sep 25Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Northwestern	+5399	2%	23
Indiana	−5399	98%	29

Spread: Indiana −35
Projected margin: Indiana by 35.0

Off by29.0

Fri, Sep 25Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Clemson	−135	57%	24
California	+135	43%	10

Spread: Clemson −3
Projected margin: Clemson by 3.2

Off by10.8

Sat, Sep 26Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Texas	−124	55%	20
Tennessee	+124	45%	17

Spread: Texas −2.5
Projected margin: Texas by 2.3

Off by0.7

Sat, Sep 26Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Sam Houston	+10465	1%	14
Texas Tech	−10465	99%	49

Spread: Texas Tech −39.5
Projected margin: Texas Tech by 39.3

Off by4.3

Sat, Sep 26Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Colorado	+596	14%	13
Baylor	−596	86%	23

Spread: Baylor −18
Projected margin: Baylor by 17.8

Off by7.8

Sat, Sep 26Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Bucknell	+99900	0%	0
Pittsburgh	−99900	100%	59

Spread: Pittsburgh −58.5
Projected margin: Pittsburgh by 58.4

Off by0.6

Sat, Sep 26Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Virginia Tech	−280	74%	21
Boston College	+280	26%	14

Spread: Virginia Tech −10.5
Projected margin: Virginia Tech by 10.6

Off by3.6

Sat, Sep 26Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Wake Forest	+290	26%	30
Louisville	−290	74%	27

Spread: Louisville −11
Projected margin: Louisville by 10.9

Off by13.9

Sat, Sep 26Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Illinois	+637	14%	19
Ohio State	−637	86%	42

Spread: Ohio State −18.5
Projected margin: Ohio State by 18.4

Off by4.6

Sat, Sep 26Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
San Diego State	+236	30%	16
Toledo	−236	70%	41

Spread: Toledo −9
Projected margin: Toledo by 8.9

Off by16.1

Sat, Sep 26Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Colorado State	+557	15%	45
UTSA	−557	85%	59

Spread: UTSA −17
Projected margin: UTSA by 17.2

Off by3.2

Sat, Sep 26Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
UNLV	−382	79%	38
Akron	+382	21%	10

Spread: UNLV −13.5
Projected margin: UNLV by 13.6

Off by14.4

Sat, Sep 26Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Ball State	+133	43%	13
Kent State	−133	57%	26

Spread: Kent State −3
Projected margin: Kent State by 3.0

Off by10.0

Sat, Sep 26Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
South Alabama	+949	10%	21
Kentucky	−949	90%	45

Spread: Kentucky −22
Projected margin: Kentucky by 21.9

Off by2.1

Sat, Sep 26Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Lindenwood	+269	27%	3
Eastern Michigan	−269	73%	29

Spread: Eastern Michigan −10
Projected margin: Eastern Michigan by 10.2

Off by15.8

Sat, Sep 26Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
UCLA	+102	49%	54
Maryland	−102	51%	3

Spread: Pick'em
Projected margin: Maryland by 0.2

Off by51.2

Sat, Sep 26Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Notre Dame	−4286	98%	49
Purdue	+4286	2%	10

Spread: Notre Dame −33.5
Projected margin: Notre Dame by 33.5

Off by5.5

Sat, Sep 26Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Northern Illinois	+215	32%	14
Georgia State	−215	68%	35

Spread: Georgia State −8
Projected margin: Georgia State by 7.9

Off by13.1

Sat, Sep 26Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Central Arkansas	+15843	1%	7
Florida State	−15843	99%	34

Spread: Florida State −42
Projected margin: Florida State by 41.8

Off by14.8

Sat, Sep 26Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Hawai'i	−178	64%	10
Wyoming	+178	36%	27

Spread: Hawai'i −6
Projected margin: Hawai'i by 6.0

Off by23.0

Sat, Sep 26Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Ole Miss	+122	45%	28
Florida	−122	55%	52

Spread: Florida −2
Projected margin: Florida by 2.1

Off by21.9

Sat, Sep 26Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Oklahoma	+280	26%	13
Georgia	−280	74%	41

Spread: Georgia −10.5
Projected margin: Georgia by 10.6

Off by17.4

Sat, Sep 26Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
TCU	−115	54%	13
UCF	+115	46%	21

Spread: TCU −1.5
Projected margin: TCU by 1.5

Off by9.5

Sat, Sep 26Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Utah	−370	79%	31
Iowa State	+370	21%	17

Spread: Utah −13.5
Projected margin: Utah by 13.3

Off by0.7

Sat, Sep 26Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
William & Mary	+20833	0%	7
Duke	−20833	100%	62

Spread: Duke −43.5
Projected margin: Duke by 43.4

Off by11.6

Sat, Sep 26Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Iowa	+122	45%	20
Michigan	−122	55%	19

Spread: Michigan −2
Projected margin: Michigan by 2.1

Off by3.1

Sat, Sep 26Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Boise State	−167	62%	32
Western Michigan	+167	38%	7

Spread: Boise State −5.5
Projected margin: Boise State by 5.3

Off by19.7

Sat, Sep 26Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
UConn	−151	60%	21
Miami (OH)	+151	40%	24

Spread: UConn −4.5
Projected margin: UConn by 4.3

Off by7.3

Sat, Sep 26Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
New Mexico	−354	78%	42
New Mexico State	+354	22%	18

Spread: New Mexico −13
Projected margin: New Mexico by 12.9

Off by11.1

Sat, Sep 26Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Robert Morris	+2329	4%	28
Buffalo	−2329	96%	31

Spread: Buffalo −29
Projected margin: Buffalo by 29.1

Off by26.1

Sat, Sep 26Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Stonehill	+6515	2%	7
Ohio	−6515	98%	35

Spread: Ohio −36.5
Projected margin: Ohio by 36.3

Off by8.3

Sat, Sep 26Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Gardner-Webb	+398	20%	35
Marshall	−398	80%	36

Spread: Marshall −14
Projected margin: Marshall by 14.0

Off by13.0

Sat, Sep 26Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Houston	−690	87%	42
Georgia Southern	+690	13%	28

Spread: Houston −19
Projected margin: Houston by 19.1

Off by5.1

Sat, Sep 26Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
North Carolina Central	+23066	0%	9
East Carolina	−23066	100%	42

Spread: East Carolina −44
Projected margin: East Carolina by 44.0

Off by11.0

Sat, Sep 26Toss-up

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Vanderbilt	+101	50%	15
Auburn	−101	50%	21

Spread: Pick'em
Projected margin: Auburn by 0.2

Off by5.8

Sat, Sep 26Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Nebraska	−173	63%	31
Michigan State	+173	37%	13

Spread: Nebraska −5.5
Projected margin: Nebraska by 5.7

Off by12.3

Sat, Sep 26Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Wisconsin	+554	15%	24
Penn State	−554	85%	20

Spread: Penn State −17
Projected margin: Penn State by 17.1

Off by21.1

Sat, Sep 26Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
South Florida	−2904	97%	14
Bowling Green	+2904	3%	6

Spread: South Florida −30.5
Projected margin: South Florida by 30.7

Off by22.7

Sat, Sep 26Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Delaware	+989	9%	3
Virginia	−989	91%	42

Spread: Virginia −22.5
Projected margin: Virginia by 22.3

Off by16.7

Sat, Sep 26Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Incarnate Word	+1668	6%	10
Texas State	−1668	94%	63

Spread: Texas State −26.5
Projected margin: Texas State by 26.5

Off by26.5

Sat, Sep 26Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Long Island University	+7699	1%	3
Florida International	−7699	99%	20

Spread: Florida International −37.5
Projected margin: Florida International by 37.3

Off by20.3

Sat, Sep 26Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
James Madison	−242	71%	46
Old Dominion	+242	29%	20

Spread: James Madison −9
Projected margin: James Madison by 9.1

Off by16.9

Sat, Sep 26Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Central Michigan	+38375	0%	3
Miami	−38375	100%	52

Spread: Miami −47
Projected margin: Miami by 46.8

Off by2.2

Sat, Sep 26Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Louisiana	−232	70%	34
Charlotte	+232	30%	7

Spread: Louisiana −8.5
Projected margin: Louisiana by 8.7

Off by18.3

Sat, Sep 26Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
South Carolina	+1354	7%	18
Alabama	−1354	93%	49

Spread: Alabama −25
Projected margin: Alabama by 24.9

Off by6.1

Sat, Sep 26Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Kansas State	−156	61%	26
Cincinnati	+156	39%	31

Spread: Kansas State −4.5
Projected margin: Kansas State by 4.6

Off by9.6

Sat, Sep 26Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Oklahoma State	+177	36%	41
West Virginia	−177	64%	24

Spread: West Virginia −6
Projected margin: West Virginia by 6.0

Off by23.0

Sat, Sep 26Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Southern Miss	+771	11%	21
Tulane	−771	89%	24

Spread: Tulane −20
Projected margin: Tulane by 20.1

Off by17.1

Sat, Sep 26Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Kennesaw State	+118	46%	14
Arkansas State	−118	54%	17

Spread: Arkansas State −1.5
Projected margin: Arkansas State by 1.7

Off by1.3

Sat, Sep 26Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Mercyhurst	+9664	1%	7
Western Kentucky	−9664	99%	52

Spread: Western Kentucky −39
Projected margin: Western Kentucky by 38.8

Off by6.2

Sat, Sep 26Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Middle Tennessee	+290	26%	13
Jacksonville State	−290	74%	23

Spread: Jacksonville State −11
Projected margin: Jacksonville State by 10.9

Off by0.9

Sat, Sep 26Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Texas A&M	−118	54%	6
LSU	+118	46%	35

Spread: Texas A&M −1.5
Projected margin: Texas A&M by 1.7

Off by30.7

Sat, Sep 26Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Arizona	−197	66%	34
Washington State	+197	34%	24

Spread: Arizona −7
Projected margin: Arizona by 7.0

Off by3.0

Sat, Sep 26Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Oregon	+119	46%	41
USC	−119	54%	27

Spread: USC −2
Projected margin: USC by 1.8

Off by15.8

Sat, Sep 26Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Troy	+263	28%	10
Utah State	−263	72%	21

Spread: Utah State −10
Projected margin: Utah State by 10.0

Off by1.0

Sat, Sep 26Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Houston Christian	+56707	0%	14
North Texas	−56707	100%	63

Spread: North Texas −49
Projected margin: North Texas by 48.8

Off by0.2

Sat, Sep 26Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
App State	+685	13%	31
NC State	−685	87%	41

Spread: NC State −19
Projected margin: NC State by 19.1

Off by9.1

Sat, Sep 26Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Missouri	+143	41%	24
Mississippi State	−143	59%	31

Spread: Mississippi State −4
Projected margin: Mississippi State by 3.8

Off by3.2

Sat, Sep 26Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Tulsa	+163	38%	6
Arkansas	−163	62%	34

Spread: Arkansas −5
Projected margin: Arkansas by 5.1

Off by22.9

Sat, Sep 26Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Florida Atlantic	−412	80%	45
UL Monroe	+412	20%	17

Spread: Florida Atlantic −14.5
Projected margin: Florida Atlantic by 14.4

Off by13.6

Sat, Sep 26Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Missouri State	+1559	6%	24
SMU	−1559	94%	34

Spread: SMU −26
Projected margin: SMU by 26.0

Off by16.0

Sat, Sep 26Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Oregon State	−506	83%	33
UTEP	+506	17%	7

Spread: Oregon State −16.5
Projected margin: Oregon State by 16.3

Off by9.7

Sat, Sep 26Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Massachusetts	+154	39%	35
Sacramento State	−154	61%	6

Spread: Sacramento State −4.5
Projected margin: Sacramento State by 4.5

Off by33.5

Sat, Sep 26Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Rice	+736	12%	24
Fresno State	−736	88%	38

Spread: Fresno State −19.5
Projected margin: Fresno State by 19.7

Off by5.7

Sat, Sep 26Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Georgia Tech	−163	62%	27
Stanford	+163	38%	34

Spread: Georgia Tech −5
Projected margin: Georgia Tech by 5.1

Off by12.1

Sat, Sep 26Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Air Force	−145	59%	36
Nevada	+145	41%	33

Spread: Air Force −4
Projected margin: Air Force by 3.9

Off by0.9

Sat, Sep 26Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Minnesota	+836	11%	27
Washington	−836	89%	24

Spread: Washington −21
Projected margin: Washington by 20.8

Off by23.8

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