Archive

A history of our predictions. A model is only worth what its predictions are, so all of ours are made public after games end.

Were the model's chances right?

Every game is sorted by the chance that the Field Theory model gave each team to win. Each bar shows the amount of teams in that prediction range that actually won. When the model's chances are honest, the bar boundary ends up inside the shaded band.

How often the model's favorites won, by the chance it gave them
Model's chance for the favorite	Favorites won	Underdogs won
90% to 100% (underdog 0% to 10%)	96%	4%
80% to 90% (underdog 10% to 20%)	82%	18%
70% to 80% (underdog 20% to 30%)	76%	24%
60% to 70% (underdog 30% to 40%)	63%	37%
50% to 60% (underdog 40% to 50%)	50%	50%

76%Winners picked1148 of 1508 games, not including toss-ups

12.7Average missPoints between projected and final margin among FBS matchups

1522GamesFinal with a pregame prediction, all seasons

Click here to see Field Theory's advanced statistics.

Week 6

36 of 55 winners picked (65%) · average miss 12.2 pts

Tue, Oct 6Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Southern Miss	+171	37%	34
Troy	−171	63%	55

Spread: Troy −5.5
Projected margin: Troy by 5.6

Off by15.4

Wed, Oct 7Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Jacksonville State	+111	47%	27
Kennesaw State	−111	53%	26

Spread: Kennesaw State −1
Projected margin: Kennesaw State by 1.1

Off by2.1

Wed, Oct 7Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
New Mexico State	+139	42%	3
Florida International	−139	58%	22

Spread: Florida International −3.5
Projected margin: Florida International by 3.5

Off by15.5

Thu, Oct 8Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Sam Houston	+280	26%	3
Liberty	−280	74%	35

Spread: Liberty −10.5
Projected margin: Liberty by 10.6

Off by21.4

Thu, Oct 8Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Missouri State	+172	37%	13
Western Kentucky	−172	63%	34

Spread: Western Kentucky −5.5
Projected margin: Western Kentucky by 5.6

Off by15.4

Thu, Oct 8Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
South Florida	+104	49%	24
UTSA	−104	51%	31

Spread: UTSA −0.5
Projected margin: UTSA by 0.4

Off by6.6

Thu, Oct 8Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
South Alabama	+132	43%	56
Arkansas State	−132	57%	49

Spread: Arkansas State −3
Projected margin: Arkansas State by 2.9

Off by9.9

Fri, Oct 9Toss-up

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Florida State	+101	50%	20
Louisville	−101	50%	44

Spread: Pick'em
Projected margin: Louisville by 0.1

Off by23.9

Fri, Oct 9Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Iowa	−131	57%	41
Washington	+131	43%	24

Spread: Iowa −3
Projected margin: Iowa by 2.8

Off by14.2

Fri, Oct 9Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Washington State	+105	49%	16
Utah State	−105	51%	17

Spread: Utah State −0.5
Projected margin: Utah State by 0.5

Off by0.5

Fri, Oct 9Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Wyoming	+207	33%	16
San José State	−207	67%	13

Spread: San José State −7.5
Projected margin: San José State by 7.5

Off by10.5

Fri, Oct 9Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Iowa State	+296	25%	10
BYU	−296	75%	24

Spread: BYU −11
Projected margin: BYU by 11.1

Off by2.9

Sat, Oct 10Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Texas A&M	+127	44%	6
Missouri	−127	56%	27

Spread: Missouri −2.5
Projected margin: Missouri by 2.5

Off by18.5

Sat, Oct 10Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Arizona	−284	74%	52
West Virginia	+284	26%	31

Spread: Arizona −10.5
Projected margin: Arizona by 10.7

Off by10.3

Sat, Oct 10Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
UCF	−112	53%	28
Oklahoma State	+112	47%	42

Spread: UCF −1
Projected margin: UCF by 1.2

Off by15.2

Sat, Oct 10Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
North Carolina	+344	23%	21
Pittsburgh	−344	77%	17

Spread: Pittsburgh −12.5
Projected margin: Pittsburgh by 12.6

Off by16.6

Sat, Oct 10Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Wake Forest	+102	49%	38
NC State	−102	51%	14

Spread: Pick'em
Projected margin: NC State by 0.2

Off by24.2

Sat, Oct 10Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Indiana	−527	84%	20
Nebraska	+527	16%	17

Spread: Indiana −16.5
Projected margin: Indiana by 16.7

Off by13.7

Sat, Oct 10Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Tulane	+165	38%	17
Army	−165	62%	20

Spread: Army −5.5
Projected margin: Army by 5.3

Off by2.3

Sat, Oct 10Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Sacramento State	+285	26%	10
Bowling Green	−285	74%	38

Spread: Bowling Green −11
Projected margin: Bowling Green by 10.8

Off by17.2

Sat, Oct 10Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Ball State	+13493	1%	14
Northwestern	−13493	99%	45

Spread: Northwestern −41
Projected margin: Northwestern by 40.8

Off by9.8

Sat, Oct 10Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
South Carolina	+452	18%	38
Florida	−452	82%	19

Spread: Florida −15
Projected margin: Florida by 15.2

Off by34.2

Sat, Oct 10Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Rice	+658	13%	12
East Carolina	−658	87%	28

Spread: East Carolina −18.5
Projected margin: East Carolina by 18.7

Off by2.7

Sat, Oct 10Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Old Dominion	+163	38%	10
App State	−163	62%	3

Spread: App State −5
Projected margin: App State by 5.1

Off by12.1

Sat, Oct 10Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Miami (OH)	−276	73%	20
Massachusetts	+276	27%	19

Spread: Miami (OH) −10.5
Projected margin: Miami (OH) by 10.5

Off by9.5

Sat, Oct 10 · Neutral siteMissed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Texas	−164	62%	24
Oklahoma	+164	38%	27

Spread: Texas −5
Projected margin: Texas by 5.2

Off by8.2

Sat, Oct 10Toss-up

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Ole Miss	−102	50%	52
Vanderbilt	+102	50%	17

Spread: Pick'em
Projected margin: Ole Miss by 0.2

Off by34.8

Sat, Oct 10Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Houston	+134	43%	35
Kansas State	−134	57%	16

Spread: Kansas State −3
Projected margin: Kansas State by 3.1

Off by22.1

Sat, Oct 10Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Duke	−173	63%	25
Georgia Tech	+173	37%	28

Spread: Duke −5.5
Projected margin: Duke by 5.7

Off by8.7

Sat, Oct 10Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Stanford	+44003	0%	7
Notre Dame	−44003	100%	58

Spread: Notre Dame −47.5
Projected margin: Notre Dame by 47.5

Off by3.5

Sat, Oct 10Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Virginia Tech	−130	57%	20
California	+130	43%	25

Spread: Virginia Tech −3
Projected margin: Virginia Tech by 2.8

Off by7.8

Sat, Oct 10Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Illinois	−136	58%	38
Michigan State	+136	42%	37

Spread: Illinois −3
Projected margin: Illinois by 3.2

Off by2.2

Sat, Oct 10Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
UCLA	+684	13%	17
Oregon	−684	87%	15

Spread: Oregon −19
Projected margin: Oregon by 19.0

Off by21.0

Sat, Oct 10Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Charlotte	+7630	1%	10
North Texas	−7630	99%	50

Spread: North Texas −37.5
Projected margin: North Texas by 37.3

Off by2.7

Sat, Oct 10Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Tulsa	+160	38%	26
Navy	−160	62%	34

Spread: Navy −5
Projected margin: Navy by 4.9

Off by3.1

Sat, Oct 10Toss-up

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Eastern Michigan	EVEN	50%	25
Akron	EVEN	50%	23

Spread: Pick'em
Projected margin: Even

Off by2.0

Sat, Oct 10Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Buffalo	+1987	5%	23
Toledo	−1987	95%	8

Spread: Toledo −28
Projected margin: Toledo by 27.9

Off by42.9

Sat, Oct 10Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Central Michigan	+153	40%	14
Ohio	−153	60%	31

Spread: Ohio −4.5
Projected margin: Ohio by 4.4

Off by12.6

Sat, Oct 10Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Kent State	+1077	8%	7
Western Michigan	−1077	92%	38

Spread: Western Michigan −23
Projected margin: Western Michigan by 23.0

Off by8.0

Sat, Oct 10Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
UConn	+119	46%	34
Temple	−119	54%	20

Spread: Temple −2
Projected margin: Temple by 1.8

Off by15.8

Sat, Oct 10Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Tennessee	−501	83%	24
Arkansas	+501	17%	17

Spread: Tennessee −16
Projected margin: Tennessee by 16.2

Off by9.2

Sat, Oct 10Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Maryland	+11317	1%	16
Ohio State	−11317	99%	45

Spread: Ohio State −40
Projected margin: Ohio State by 39.8

Off by10.8

Sat, Oct 10Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
San Diego State	+343	23%	14
Oregon State	−343	77%	66

Spread: Oregon State −12.5
Projected margin: Oregon State by 12.6

Off by39.4

Sat, Oct 10Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
LSU	−124	55%	34
Kentucky	+124	45%	35

Spread: LSU −2
Projected margin: LSU by 2.2

Off by3.2

Sat, Oct 10Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
UAB	+1054	9%	13
Memphis	−1054	91%	38

Spread: Memphis −23
Projected margin: Memphis by 22.8

Off by2.2

Sat, Oct 10Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Nevada	−262	72%	30
UTEP	+262	28%	13

Spread: Nevada −10
Projected margin: Nevada by 10.0

Off by7.0

Sat, Oct 10Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
North Dakota State	−170	63%	7
UNLV	+170	37%	13

Spread: North Dakota State −5.5
Projected margin: North Dakota State by 5.5

Off by11.5

Sat, Oct 10Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Coastal Carolina	+164	38%	27
Marshall	−164	62%	21

Spread: Marshall −5
Projected margin: Marshall by 5.2

Off by11.2

Sat, Oct 10Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Georgia	+181	36%	20
Alabama	−181	64%	17

Spread: Alabama −6
Projected margin: Alabama by 6.2

Off by9.2

Sat, Oct 10Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Syracuse	+504	17%	25
Virginia	−504	83%	28

Spread: Virginia −16.5
Projected margin: Virginia by 16.3

Off by13.3

Sat, Oct 10Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
USC	−135	57%	31
Penn State	+135	43%	23

Spread: USC −3
Projected margin: USC by 3.2

Off by4.8

Sat, Oct 10Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Air Force	−358	78%	28
Northern Illinois	+358	22%	7

Spread: Air Force −13
Projected margin: Air Force by 13.0

Off by8.0

Sat, Oct 10Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
James Madison	−415	81%	27
Georgia Southern	+415	19%	24

Spread: James Madison −14.5
Projected margin: James Madison by 14.4

Off by11.4

Sat, Oct 10Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Louisiana	+230	30%	31
Louisiana Tech	−230	70%	32

Spread: Louisiana Tech −8.5
Projected margin: Louisiana Tech by 8.6

Off by7.6

Sat, Oct 10Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Kansas	+1237	7%	24
Utah	−1237	93%	41

Spread: Utah −24
Projected margin: Utah by 24.1

Off by7.1

Sat, Oct 10Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Minnesota	+113	47%	13
Purdue	−113	53%	41

Spread: Purdue −1.5
Projected margin: Purdue by 1.3

Off by26.7

Sat, Oct 10Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Hawai'i	+860	10%	12
Arizona State	−860	90%	30

Spread: Arizona State −21
Projected margin: Arizona State by 21.1

Off by3.1

Sat, Oct 10Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Boise State	−273	73%	38
Fresno State	+273	27%	31

Spread: Boise State −10.5
Projected margin: Boise State by 10.4

Off by3.4

Our Top 25 and archived predictions are free to use and distribute.