Archive

A history of our predictions. A model is only worth what its predictions are, so all of ours are made public after games end.

Were the model's chances right?

Every game is sorted by the chance that the Field Theory model gave each team to win. Each bar shows the amount of teams in that prediction range that actually won. When the model's chances are honest, the bar boundary ends up inside the shaded band.

How often the model's favorites won, by the chance it gave them
Model's chance for the favorite	Favorites won	Underdogs won
90% to 100% (underdog 0% to 10%)	96%	4%
80% to 90% (underdog 10% to 20%)	82%	18%
70% to 80% (underdog 20% to 30%)	76%	24%
60% to 70% (underdog 30% to 40%)	63%	37%
50% to 60% (underdog 40% to 50%)	50%	50%

76%Winners picked1148 of 1508 games, not including toss-ups

12.7Average missPoints between projected and final margin among FBS matchups

1522GamesFinal with a pregame prediction, all seasons

Click here to see Field Theory's advanced statistics.

Week 8

29 of 56 winners picked (52%) · average miss 13.2 pts

Tue, Oct 20Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Middle Tennessee	+477	17%	26
Florida International	−477	83%	23

Spread: Florida International −16
Projected margin: Florida International by 15.9

Off by18.9

Tue, Oct 20Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Missouri State	+140	42%	38
Delaware	−140	58%	61

Spread: Delaware −3.5
Projected margin: Delaware by 3.5

Off by19.5

Tue, Oct 20Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
South Alabama	−581	85%	13
Marshall	+581	15%	20

Spread: South Alabama −17.5
Projected margin: South Alabama by 17.7

Off by24.7

Wed, Oct 21Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
New Mexico State	+107	48%	30
Sam Houston	−107	52%	24

Spread: Sam Houston −1
Projected margin: Sam Houston by 0.8

Off by6.8

Thu, Oct 22Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
James Madison	−343	77%	31
App State	+343	23%	34

Spread: James Madison −12.5
Projected margin: James Madison by 12.7

Off by15.7

Thu, Oct 22Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Liberty	−189	65%	34
Kennesaw State	+189	35%	6

Spread: Liberty −6.5
Projected margin: Liberty by 6.7

Off by21.3

Thu, Oct 22Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
East Carolina	+1127	8%	34
Memphis	−1127	92%	41

Spread: Memphis −23.5
Projected margin: Memphis by 23.5

Off by16.5

Fri, Oct 23Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Duke	+108	48%	19
Virginia	−108	52%	16

Spread: Virginia −1
Projected margin: Virginia by 0.8

Off by3.8

Fri, Oct 23Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Massachusetts	+339	23%	16
UConn	−339	77%	35

Spread: UConn −12.5
Projected margin: UConn by 12.6

Off by6.4

Fri, Oct 23Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Army	−163	62%	38
Tulsa	+163	38%	35

Spread: Army −5
Projected margin: Army by 5.2

Off by2.2

Fri, Oct 23Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Air Force	−596	86%	14
Wyoming	+596	14%	28

Spread: Air Force −18
Projected margin: Air Force by 18.0

Off by32.0

Fri, Oct 23Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
NC State	−371	79%	28
Stanford	+371	21%	31

Spread: NC State −13.5
Projected margin: NC State by 13.5

Off by16.5

Sat, Oct 24Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
LSU	−250	71%	38
Auburn	+250	29%	17

Spread: LSU −9.5
Projected margin: LSU by 9.5

Off by11.5

Sat, Oct 24Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Texas Tech	−235	70%	24
Cincinnati	+235	30%	37

Spread: Texas Tech −9
Projected margin: Texas Tech by 8.9

Off by21.9

Sat, Oct 24Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
West Virginia	+401	20%	24
TCU	−401	80%	20

Spread: TCU −14
Projected margin: TCU by 14.2

Off by18.2

Sat, Oct 24Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
California	+396	20%	20
SMU	−396	80%	59

Spread: SMU −14
Projected margin: SMU by 14.1

Off by24.9

Sat, Oct 24Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Pittsburgh	+901	10%	23
Miami	−901	90%	52

Spread: Miami −21.5
Projected margin: Miami by 21.6

Off by7.4

Sat, Oct 24Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Indiana	−857	90%	13
Michigan	+857	10%	6

Spread: Indiana −21
Projected margin: Indiana by 21.2

Off by14.2

Sat, Oct 24Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Rutgers	+1973	5%	14
Northwestern	−1973	95%	42

Spread: Northwestern −28
Projected margin: Northwestern by 28.1

Off by0.1

Sat, Oct 24Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Rice	+385	21%	49
Florida Atlantic	−385	79%	51

Spread: Florida Atlantic −14
Projected margin: Florida Atlantic by 13.8

Off by11.8

Sat, Oct 24Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Western Michigan	−121	55%	38
Toledo	+121	45%	45

Spread: Western Michigan −2
Projected margin: Western Michigan by 2.0

Off by9.0

Sat, Oct 24Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Baylor	−127	56%	24
Kansas	+127	44%	25

Spread: Baylor −2.5
Projected margin: Baylor by 2.6

Off by3.6

Sat, Oct 24Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Akron	+137	42%	20
Kent State	−137	58%	35

Spread: Kent State −3.5
Projected margin: Kent State by 3.3

Off by11.7

Sat, Oct 24Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Miami (OH)	−123	55%	28
Central Michigan	+123	45%	27

Spread: Miami (OH) −2
Projected margin: Miami (OH) by 2.2

Off by1.2

Sat, Oct 24Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Oregon	−559	85%	10
Illinois	+559	15%	21

Spread: Oregon −17.5
Projected margin: Oregon by 17.4

Off by28.4

Sat, Oct 24Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Texas A&M	+933	10%	20
Alabama	−933	90%	31

Spread: Alabama −22
Projected margin: Alabama by 21.9

Off by10.9

Sat, Oct 24Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Oklahoma	+108	48%	23
Mississippi State	−108	52%	15

Spread: Mississippi State −1
Projected margin: Mississippi State by 0.8

Off by8.8

Sat, Oct 24Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Tennessee	−212	68%	24
South Carolina	+212	32%	27

Spread: Tennessee −8
Projected margin: Tennessee by 7.8

Off by10.8

Sat, Oct 24Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
BYU	−221	69%	31
UCF	+221	31%	39

Spread: BYU −8.5
Projected margin: BYU by 8.3

Off by16.3

Sat, Oct 24Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Boston College	+191	34%	49
Georgia Tech	−191	66%	27

Spread: Georgia Tech −7
Projected margin: Georgia Tech by 6.8

Off by28.8

Sat, Oct 24Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Iowa	−462	82%	10
Minnesota	+462	18%	13

Spread: Iowa −15.5
Projected margin: Iowa by 15.6

Off by18.6

Sat, Oct 24Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Michigan State	+872	10%	10
UCLA	−872	90%	28

Spread: UCLA −21.5
Projected margin: UCLA by 21.4

Off by3.4

Sat, Oct 24Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
North Texas	−203	67%	49
Navy	+203	33%	39

Spread: North Texas −7.5
Projected margin: North Texas by 7.4

Off by2.6

Sat, Oct 24Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Hawai'i	+107	48%	56
Northern Illinois	−107	52%	21

Spread: Northern Illinois −0.5
Projected margin: Northern Illinois by 0.7

Off by35.7

Sat, Oct 24Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Sacramento State	+430	19%	17
Ball State	−430	81%	34

Spread: Ball State −15
Projected margin: Ball State by 14.9

Off by2.1

Sat, Oct 24Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Bowling Green	+214	32%	24
Buffalo	−214	68%	31

Spread: Buffalo −8
Projected margin: Buffalo by 8.0

Off by1.0

Sat, Oct 24Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Kansas State	−345	78%	17
Arizona State	+345	22%	28

Spread: Kansas State −13
Projected margin: Kansas State by 12.8

Off by23.8

Sat, Oct 24Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Eastern Michigan	+596	14%	20
Ohio	−596	86%	24

Spread: Ohio −18
Projected margin: Ohio by 18.0

Off by14.0

Sat, Oct 24Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
UL Monroe	+875	10%	21
Troy	−875	90%	14

Spread: Troy −21.5
Projected margin: Troy by 21.4

Off by28.4

Sat, Oct 24Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
San José State	+361	22%	13
Nevada	−361	78%	28

Spread: Nevada −13
Projected margin: Nevada by 13.2

Off by1.8

Sat, Oct 24Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Louisiana	−331	77%	31
Southern Miss	+331	23%	35

Spread: Louisiana −12.5
Projected margin: Louisiana by 12.4

Off by16.4

Sat, Oct 24Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Old Dominion	+1388	7%	0
Louisiana Tech	−1388	93%	26

Spread: Louisiana Tech −25.5
Projected margin: Louisiana Tech by 25.3

Off by0.7

Sat, Oct 24Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Boise State	−1186	92%	31
Washington State	+1186	8%	10

Spread: Boise State −24
Projected margin: Boise State by 24.0

Off by3.0

Sat, Oct 24Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
San Diego State	−113	53%	49
Colorado State	+113	47%	56

Spread: San Diego State −1.5
Projected margin: San Diego State by 1.3

Off by8.3

Sat, Oct 24Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Colorado	+796	11%	24
Oklahoma State	−796	89%	57

Spread: Oklahoma State −20.5
Projected margin: Oklahoma State by 20.6

Off by12.4

Sat, Oct 24Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Virginia Tech	+139	42%	20
Clemson	−139	58%	16

Spread: Clemson −3.5
Projected margin: Clemson by 3.5

Off by7.5

Sat, Oct 24Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Georgia State	−108	52%	32
Arkansas State	+108	48%	38

Spread: Georgia State −1
Projected margin: Georgia State by 0.8

Off by6.8

Sat, Oct 24Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Vanderbilt	+3664	3%	17
Kentucky	−3664	97%	34

Spread: Kentucky −32.5
Projected margin: Kentucky by 32.6

Off by15.6

Sat, Oct 24Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Ole Miss	+224	31%	27
Texas	−224	69%	34

Spread: Texas −8.5
Projected margin: Texas by 8.4

Off by1.4

Sat, Oct 24Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Iowa State	+392	20%	3
Arizona	−392	80%	39

Spread: Arizona −14
Projected margin: Arizona by 14.0

Off by22.0

Sat, Oct 24Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Syracuse	+576	15%	31
North Carolina	−576	85%	30

Spread: North Carolina −17.5
Projected margin: North Carolina by 17.6

Off by18.6

Sat, Oct 24Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
USC	+109	48%	7
Wisconsin	−109	52%	24

Spread: Wisconsin −1
Projected margin: Wisconsin by 0.9

Off by16.1

Sat, Oct 24Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Utah State	+693	13%	17
Texas State	−693	87%	20

Spread: Texas State −19.5
Projected margin: Texas State by 19.3

Off by16.3

Sat, Oct 24Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
UTSA	+130	44%	42
Tulane	−130	56%	19

Spread: Tulane −2.5
Projected margin: Tulane by 2.7

Off by25.7

Sat, Oct 24Correct pick

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
North Dakota State	+220	31%	16
New Mexico	−220	69%	21

Spread: New Mexico −8.5
Projected margin: New Mexico by 8.3

Off by3.3

Sat, Oct 24Missed

Team	Fair moneyline	Win	Final
Houston	−140	58%	13
Utah	+140	42%	21

Spread: Houston −3.5
Projected margin: Houston by 3.6

Off by11.6

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