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How far the model landed from the result

Every figure below compares the model's pregame projected margin to the final score. The latest week is shown; use the tabs for another season or week. Free to use and distribute, like the rest of the archive.

Error is projected margin minus final margin. Mean squared error punishes the badly missed games hardest; its square root puts that back into points, to read against the mean absolute error. Bias is the average signed error: above zero the model had home teams ahead of where they finished, below zero behind. Games the model called at 50/50 are not graded as picks.

Every seasonAll archived games

FBS matchupsBoth teams FBS

72.40%Winners picked913 of 1261 graded, from 1274 games
12.71Mean absolute errorPoints
253.71Mean squared errorPoints squared
15.93Root mean squared errorPoints
−0.20BiasPoints, signed

Non-FBS matchupsAt least one team outside FBS

95.14%Winners picked235 of 247 graded, from 248 games
13.23Mean absolute errorPoints
267.75Mean squared errorPoints squared
16.36Root mean squared errorPoints
−2.01BiasPoints, signed
2025 seasonEvery week of this season

FBS matchupsBoth teams FBS

73.25%Winners picked553 of 755 graded, from 762 games
12.38Mean absolute errorPoints
242.20Mean squared errorPoints squared
15.56Root mean squared errorPoints
−0.49BiasPoints, signed

Non-FBS matchupsAt least one team outside FBS

93.60%Winners picked117 of 125 graded, from 126 games
12.99Mean absolute errorPoints
264.26Mean squared errorPoints squared
16.26Root mean squared errorPoints
−0.94BiasPoints, signed
Week 42025, this week alone

FBS matchupsBoth teams FBS

70.00%Winners picked35 of 50 graded, from 50 games
12.38Mean absolute errorPoints
260.77Mean squared errorPoints squared
16.15Root mean squared errorPoints
+0.31BiasPoints, signed

Non-FBS matchupsAt least one team outside FBS

100.00%Winners picked12 of 12 graded, from 12 games
10.97Mean absolute errorPoints
199.84Mean squared errorPoints squared
14.14Root mean squared errorPoints
−6.97BiasPoints, signed
2025 through Week 4Running total to this point in the season

FBS matchupsBoth teams FBS

73.71%Winners picked143 of 194 graded, from 195 games
12.96Mean absolute errorPoints
271.70Mean squared errorPoints squared
16.48Root mean squared errorPoints
−0.91BiasPoints, signed

Non-FBS matchupsAt least one team outside FBS

93.04%Winners picked107 of 115 graded, from 116 games
13.19Mean absolute errorPoints
274.39Mean squared errorPoints squared
16.56Root mean squared errorPoints
−0.57BiasPoints, signed