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How far the model landed from the result

Every figure below compares the model's pregame projected margin to the final score. The latest week is shown; use the tabs for another season or week. Free to use and distribute, like the rest of the archive.

Error is projected margin minus final margin. Mean squared error punishes the badly missed games hardest; its square root puts that back into points, to read against the mean absolute error. Bias is the average signed error: above zero the model had home teams ahead of where they finished, below zero behind. Games the model called at 50/50 are not graded as picks.

Every seasonAll archived games

FBS matchupsBoth teams FBS

72.40%Winners picked913 of 1261 graded, from 1274 games
12.71Mean absolute errorPoints
253.71Mean squared errorPoints squared
15.93Root mean squared errorPoints
−0.20BiasPoints, signed

Non-FBS matchupsAt least one team outside FBS

95.14%Winners picked235 of 247 graded, from 248 games
13.23Mean absolute errorPoints
267.75Mean squared errorPoints squared
16.36Root mean squared errorPoints
−2.01BiasPoints, signed
2025 seasonEvery week of this season

FBS matchupsBoth teams FBS

73.25%Winners picked553 of 755 graded, from 762 games
12.38Mean absolute errorPoints
242.20Mean squared errorPoints squared
15.56Root mean squared errorPoints
−0.49BiasPoints, signed

Non-FBS matchupsAt least one team outside FBS

93.60%Winners picked117 of 125 graded, from 126 games
12.99Mean absolute errorPoints
264.26Mean squared errorPoints squared
16.26Root mean squared errorPoints
−0.94BiasPoints, signed
Week 122025, this week alone

FBS matchupsBoth teams FBS

81.03%Winners picked47 of 58 graded, from 58 games
11.02Mean absolute errorPoints
201.04Mean squared errorPoints squared
14.18Root mean squared errorPoints
−1.61BiasPoints, signed

Non-FBS matchupsAt least one team outside FBS

100.00%Winners picked1 of 1 graded, from 1 games
7.50Mean absolute errorPoints
56.25Mean squared errorPoints squared
7.50Root mean squared errorPoints
−7.50BiasPoints, signed
2025 through Week 12Running total to this point in the season

FBS matchupsBoth teams FBS

72.79%Winners picked452 of 621 graded, from 625 games
12.45Mean absolute errorPoints
248.85Mean squared errorPoints squared
15.77Root mean squared errorPoints
−0.91BiasPoints, signed

Non-FBS matchupsAt least one team outside FBS

93.39%Winners picked113 of 121 graded, from 122 games
13.07Mean absolute errorPoints
268.01Mean squared errorPoints squared
16.37Root mean squared errorPoints
−1.00BiasPoints, signed