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How far the model landed from the result

Every figure below compares the model's pregame projected margin to the final score. The latest week is shown; use the tabs for another season or week. Free to use and distribute, like the rest of the archive.

Error is projected margin minus final margin. Mean squared error punishes the badly missed games hardest; its square root puts that back into points, to read against the mean absolute error. Bias is the average signed error: above zero the model had home teams ahead of where they finished, below zero behind. Games the model called at 50/50 are not graded as picks.

Every seasonAll archived games

FBS matchupsBoth teams FBS

72.40%Winners picked913 of 1261 graded, from 1274 games
12.71Mean absolute errorPoints
253.71Mean squared errorPoints squared
15.93Root mean squared errorPoints
−0.20BiasPoints, signed

Non-FBS matchupsAt least one team outside FBS

95.14%Winners picked235 of 247 graded, from 248 games
13.23Mean absolute errorPoints
267.75Mean squared errorPoints squared
16.36Root mean squared errorPoints
−2.01BiasPoints, signed
2025 seasonEvery week of this season

FBS matchupsBoth teams FBS

73.25%Winners picked553 of 755 graded, from 762 games
12.38Mean absolute errorPoints
242.20Mean squared errorPoints squared
15.56Root mean squared errorPoints
−0.49BiasPoints, signed

Non-FBS matchupsAt least one team outside FBS

93.60%Winners picked117 of 125 graded, from 126 games
12.99Mean absolute errorPoints
264.26Mean squared errorPoints squared
16.26Root mean squared errorPoints
−0.94BiasPoints, signed
Week 12025, this week alone

FBS matchupsBoth teams FBS

77.08%Winners picked37 of 48 graded, from 48 games
13.37Mean absolute errorPoints
295.34Mean squared errorPoints squared
17.19Root mean squared errorPoints
+0.25BiasPoints, signed

Non-FBS matchupsAt least one team outside FBS

91.67%Winners picked44 of 48 graded, from 48 games
14.63Mean absolute errorPoints
331.61Mean squared errorPoints squared
18.21Root mean squared errorPoints
+1.49BiasPoints, signed
2025 through Week 1Running total to this point in the season

FBS matchupsBoth teams FBS

77.08%Winners picked37 of 48 graded, from 48 games
13.37Mean absolute errorPoints
295.34Mean squared errorPoints squared
17.19Root mean squared errorPoints
+0.25BiasPoints, signed

Non-FBS matchupsAt least one team outside FBS

91.67%Winners picked44 of 48 graded, from 48 games
14.63Mean absolute errorPoints
331.61Mean squared errorPoints squared
18.21Root mean squared errorPoints
+1.49BiasPoints, signed