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How far the model landed from the result

Every figure below compares the model's pregame projected margin to the final score. The latest week is shown; use the tabs for another season or week. Free to use and distribute, like the rest of the archive.

Error is projected margin minus final margin. Mean squared error punishes the badly missed games hardest; its square root puts that back into points, to read against the mean absolute error. Bias is the average signed error: above zero the model had home teams ahead of where they finished, below zero behind. Games the model called at 50/50 are not graded as picks.

Every seasonAll archived games

FBS matchupsBoth teams FBS

72.40%Winners picked913 of 1261 graded, from 1274 games
12.71Mean absolute errorPoints
253.71Mean squared errorPoints squared
15.93Root mean squared errorPoints
−0.20BiasPoints, signed

Non-FBS matchupsAt least one team outside FBS

95.14%Winners picked235 of 247 graded, from 248 games
13.23Mean absolute errorPoints
267.75Mean squared errorPoints squared
16.36Root mean squared errorPoints
−2.01BiasPoints, signed
2025 seasonEvery week of this season

FBS matchupsBoth teams FBS

73.25%Winners picked553 of 755 graded, from 762 games
12.38Mean absolute errorPoints
242.20Mean squared errorPoints squared
15.56Root mean squared errorPoints
−0.49BiasPoints, signed

Non-FBS matchupsAt least one team outside FBS

93.60%Winners picked117 of 125 graded, from 126 games
12.99Mean absolute errorPoints
264.26Mean squared errorPoints squared
16.26Root mean squared errorPoints
−0.94BiasPoints, signed
Week 32025, this week alone

FBS matchupsBoth teams FBS

69.57%Winners picked32 of 46 graded, from 47 games
14.36Mean absolute errorPoints
290.22Mean squared errorPoints squared
17.04Root mean squared errorPoints
−3.30BiasPoints, signed

Non-FBS matchupsAt least one team outside FBS

95.65%Winners picked22 of 23 graded, from 23 games
9.40Mean absolute errorPoints
139.05Mean squared errorPoints squared
11.79Root mean squared errorPoints
−1.45BiasPoints, signed
2025 through Week 3Running total to this point in the season

FBS matchupsBoth teams FBS

75.00%Winners picked108 of 144 graded, from 145 games
13.16Mean absolute errorPoints
275.48Mean squared errorPoints squared
16.60Root mean squared errorPoints
−1.33BiasPoints, signed

Non-FBS matchupsAt least one team outside FBS

92.23%Winners picked95 of 103 graded, from 104 games
13.45Mean absolute errorPoints
282.99Mean squared errorPoints squared
16.82Root mean squared errorPoints
+0.17BiasPoints, signed