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How far the model landed from the result

Every figure below compares the model's pregame projected margin to the final score. The latest week is shown; use the tabs for another season or week. Free to use and distribute, like the rest of the archive.

Error is projected margin minus final margin. Mean squared error punishes the badly missed games hardest; its square root puts that back into points, to read against the mean absolute error. Bias is the average signed error: above zero the model had home teams ahead of where they finished, below zero behind. Games the model called at 50/50 are not graded as picks.

Every seasonAll archived games

FBS matchupsBoth teams FBS

72.40%Winners picked913 of 1261 graded, from 1274 games
12.71Mean absolute errorPoints
253.71Mean squared errorPoints squared
15.93Root mean squared errorPoints
−0.20BiasPoints, signed

Non-FBS matchupsAt least one team outside FBS

95.14%Winners picked235 of 247 graded, from 248 games
13.23Mean absolute errorPoints
267.75Mean squared errorPoints squared
16.36Root mean squared errorPoints
−2.01BiasPoints, signed
2026 seasonEvery week of this season

FBS matchupsBoth teams FBS

71.15%Winners picked360 of 506 graded, from 512 games
13.21Mean absolute errorPoints
270.84Mean squared errorPoints squared
16.46Root mean squared errorPoints
+0.23BiasPoints, signed

Non-FBS matchupsAt least one team outside FBS

96.72%Winners picked118 of 122 graded, from 122 games
13.48Mean absolute errorPoints
271.36Mean squared errorPoints squared
16.47Root mean squared errorPoints
−3.11BiasPoints, signed
Week 52026, this week alone

FBS matchupsBoth teams FBS

73.21%Winners picked41 of 56 graded, from 56 games
14.01Mean absolute errorPoints
325.32Mean squared errorPoints squared
18.04Root mean squared errorPoints
−2.02BiasPoints, signed

Non-FBS matchupsAt least one team outside FBS

100.00%Winners picked3 of 3 graded, from 3 games
10.17Mean absolute errorPoints
240.84Mean squared errorPoints squared
15.52Root mean squared errorPoints
−7.63BiasPoints, signed
2026 through Week 5Running total to this point in the season

FBS matchupsBoth teams FBS

79.48%Winners picked213 of 268 graded, from 271 games
13.05Mean absolute errorPoints
276.85Mean squared errorPoints squared
16.64Root mean squared errorPoints
+0.68BiasPoints, signed

Non-FBS matchupsAt least one team outside FBS

96.64%Winners picked115 of 119 graded, from 119 games
13.64Mean absolute errorPoints
276.30Mean squared errorPoints squared
16.62Root mean squared errorPoints
−3.38BiasPoints, signed