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How far the model landed from the result

Every figure below compares the model's pregame projected margin to the final score. The latest week is shown; use the tabs for another season or week. Free to use and distribute, like the rest of the archive.

Error is projected margin minus final margin. Mean squared error punishes the badly missed games hardest; its square root puts that back into points, to read against the mean absolute error. Bias is the average signed error: above zero the model had home teams ahead of where they finished, below zero behind. Games the model called at 50/50 are not graded as picks.

Every seasonAll archived games

FBS matchupsBoth teams FBS

72.40%Winners picked913 of 1261 graded, from 1274 games
12.71Mean absolute errorPoints
253.71Mean squared errorPoints squared
15.93Root mean squared errorPoints
−0.20BiasPoints, signed

Non-FBS matchupsAt least one team outside FBS

95.14%Winners picked235 of 247 graded, from 248 games
13.23Mean absolute errorPoints
267.75Mean squared errorPoints squared
16.36Root mean squared errorPoints
−2.01BiasPoints, signed
2026 seasonEvery week of this season

FBS matchupsBoth teams FBS

71.15%Winners picked360 of 506 graded, from 512 games
13.21Mean absolute errorPoints
270.84Mean squared errorPoints squared
16.46Root mean squared errorPoints
+0.23BiasPoints, signed

Non-FBS matchupsAt least one team outside FBS

96.72%Winners picked118 of 122 graded, from 122 games
13.48Mean absolute errorPoints
271.36Mean squared errorPoints squared
16.47Root mean squared errorPoints
−3.11BiasPoints, signed
Week 32026, this week alone

FBS matchupsBoth teams FBS

85.71%Winners picked48 of 56 graded, from 57 games
10.81Mean absolute errorPoints
192.60Mean squared errorPoints squared
13.88Root mean squared errorPoints
+2.05BiasPoints, signed

Non-FBS matchupsAt least one team outside FBS

94.44%Winners picked17 of 18 graded, from 18 games
14.38Mean absolute errorPoints
318.64Mean squared errorPoints squared
17.85Root mean squared errorPoints
−4.33BiasPoints, signed
2026 through Week 3Running total to this point in the season

FBS matchupsBoth teams FBS

84.52%Winners picked131 of 155 graded, from 157 games
12.94Mean absolute errorPoints
269.50Mean squared errorPoints squared
16.42Root mean squared errorPoints
+0.93BiasPoints, signed

Non-FBS matchupsAt least one team outside FBS

96.12%Winners picked99 of 103 graded, from 103 games
13.76Mean absolute errorPoints
281.05Mean squared errorPoints squared
16.76Root mean squared errorPoints
−3.80BiasPoints, signed