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How far the model landed from the result

Every figure below compares the model's pregame projected margin to the final score. The latest week is shown; use the tabs for another season or week. Free to use and distribute, like the rest of the archive.

Error is projected margin minus final margin. Mean squared error punishes the badly missed games hardest; its square root puts that back into points, to read against the mean absolute error. Bias is the average signed error: above zero the model had home teams ahead of where they finished, below zero behind. Games the model called at 50/50 are not graded as picks.

Every seasonAll archived games

FBS matchupsBoth teams FBS

72.40%Winners picked913 of 1261 graded, from 1274 games
12.71Mean absolute errorPoints
253.71Mean squared errorPoints squared
15.93Root mean squared errorPoints
−0.20BiasPoints, signed

Non-FBS matchupsAt least one team outside FBS

95.14%Winners picked235 of 247 graded, from 248 games
13.23Mean absolute errorPoints
267.75Mean squared errorPoints squared
16.36Root mean squared errorPoints
−2.01BiasPoints, signed
2026 seasonEvery week of this season

FBS matchupsBoth teams FBS

71.15%Winners picked360 of 506 graded, from 512 games
13.21Mean absolute errorPoints
270.84Mean squared errorPoints squared
16.46Root mean squared errorPoints
+0.23BiasPoints, signed

Non-FBS matchupsAt least one team outside FBS

96.72%Winners picked118 of 122 graded, from 122 games
13.48Mean absolute errorPoints
271.36Mean squared errorPoints squared
16.47Root mean squared errorPoints
−3.11BiasPoints, signed
Week 42026, this week alone

FBS matchupsBoth teams FBS

71.93%Winners picked41 of 57 graded, from 58 games
12.41Mean absolute errorPoints
249.94Mean squared errorPoints squared
15.81Root mean squared errorPoints
+2.60BiasPoints, signed

Non-FBS matchupsAt least one team outside FBS

100.00%Winners picked13 of 13 graded, from 13 games
13.44Mean absolute errorPoints
246.82Mean squared errorPoints squared
15.71Root mean squared errorPoints
+0.95BiasPoints, signed
2026 through Week 4Running total to this point in the season

FBS matchupsBoth teams FBS

81.13%Winners picked172 of 212 graded, from 215 games
12.80Mean absolute errorPoints
264.22Mean squared errorPoints squared
16.25Root mean squared errorPoints
+1.38BiasPoints, signed

Non-FBS matchupsAt least one team outside FBS

96.55%Winners picked112 of 116 graded, from 116 games
13.73Mean absolute errorPoints
277.21Mean squared errorPoints squared
16.65Root mean squared errorPoints
−3.27BiasPoints, signed